Betting Umpires And Being +24 Units

[factsman]

You take the pitchers???.im putting my money on the umpires.
When everyone asks me why I am so successful with totals and 1st have props and team totals its real simple. I work real hard at what I do. I don?t believe in luck I don?t believe in freaks of nature and im not real big on coincidence. I like FACTS

UMPIRE FACTS U NEED TO KNOW?..just a sample I wont break everyone down
But these FACTS that I mention is a good tool for you guys

Umpire TIM THOMAS?when behind the plate 18 times this year his games went
Over 3 times under 15 times??avg runs scored in his games 7.3.
When I see him behind the plate with pitchers that get them borderline calls
Go to the bank it?s a under????..the facts don?t lie

Umpire ROB DRAKE?.when behind the plate avg runs scored 10.7
His games went over 13 times only 4 unders avg strikeouts 15 per 9 inn
Walks only 6.7??..clearly a pitchers umpire????..the facts don?t lie

Umpire BRIAN GORMAN . in 19 games behind the dish 13 have gone under
Avg runs per game 8.2 with him averaging 15 strikeouts per 9 innings

Umpire GARY CEDERSTROM?.. in his games avg runs per 9 innings 11.5
16 games 12 overs 4 unders oddly more then 7 walks per game and pitchers era on avg is 5.43 runs per game truly a hitters umpire

the difference in a 2-1 count and a 1-2 count on a hitter is worth more then 70 points on his batting average. Look for pitcher friendly umpires and the right ball park and the right starters and your under plays will be solid
same holds true for your hitter friendly umpires forcing pitchers behind in the count to serve up meatballs makes a game go over so easy

these umpires I listed are just a sample of how you can make money following umpires

I JUST SHOWED YOU HOW I MADE 24 UNITS PLAYING TOTALS WITH ONLY 4 UMPIRES AND YOU ALL CAN DO IT TOO. BEST OF LUCK

THAT?S THE FACT OF THE DAY
FACTSMAN

 

[baby johnson]

we'll see...good luck toya in the second half

 

[infinii]

What you just showed us is that you can pull up the stats for historical games and tell us the outcome.

I'm not disputing the importance of umpires as one of our best cappers (gsp) was probably one of the first to track this kind of stuff and his success is apparent.

I just don't recall reading any of your posts where you presented these "facts" before the game and actually bet on them.

Just the facts ma'am.

 

[factsman]

to infini..........i posted because i thought people may find it interesting. i can post every game that every umpire did behind the plate with the scores but that would take up some time. when i post my games i generally have solid reasoning behind it, win or lose.............i thought the guys could use this information in there capping. isnt what this is about everyone trying to contribute info to beat the man

and in my posts if a situation applies where i think a particular umpire will benefit the play i will be sure to post it
fyi im not a ma"am.......................thats a fact
gl all

 

[gsp]

Now that you've posted this, it wouldn't surprise me that all these umps change direction for the second half of the season. I believe that you meant Timmons instead of Thomas. Timmons had only three overs so far this season and most people got a push on one of them. Covers showed the line at Ari as 6' when most of us got 7. Most of the umps you mentioned will be under 60% by the end of the year. Watch anyone that goes wrong twice in a row and don't pay any attention to what they did last year. You have made some very good points about how an ump can control a game without looking like he is. When the play-offs start throw everything you've learned about umps this year out the window and start all over. I'll get into this in more detail right before play-offs. Good luck for the rest of the season.

 

[loophole]

i also track umps and make ump-based plays on totals only, and agree that they are a worthwhile handicapping factor. however, i do feel that, except in a few cases, going by o/u numbers alone can be misleading. i try to take into consideration stats from at least two previous seasons, also al vs nl stats and r vs l stats. a lot of times you can uncover some hidden gems. also, besides rpg and k/bb ratios, it can also be enlightening to look at batting average allowed. that will go a long way to telling you what kind of pitches batters are getting to look at when an ump is behind the plate, that is, whether there are a lot of hitters' counts or pitchers' counts in the game. often that is a better indicator of an ump's strike zone than just walks and ko's.

there is no mlb ump by the name of tim thomas; from the stats cited for him it appears you're referring to tim timmons.

cb bucknor is one of my favorite "over" umps. regardless of the situation, he's been money in the bank for years.

 

[factsman]

wasa typo it was timmons................... im really not a big ump capper i do use some factors as i said but it was a off day i had it on my desk thought it would be interesting is all.

what i did do last month was when maddux pitched at houston i did know there was triple a ump called up.........as the regular took his vacation .....this young ump was quoted as saying he was excited in his 1st start in the majors to get maddux..............well that night maddux got every call
he needed to make maddux ..well be maddux.............was it the ump i dont know i won the game is all i know ..........i think we all tend to think 2 much im guilty of it.....
i believe if what your doing works continue doing it. i for one look at baseball from a few different angles
i see other posters in other forums i call them the cut and paste clan they go to stat fox or espn or cbssportline or 1 of 100 different sites and paste them in there posts like they are the only ones that can get the information. hey if all stats held up there wouldnt be any books toplay we would all win
my philosophy for 20 years has always been this they make the line i try to break it
our advantage is we have time to make our choices..........they make a mistake they pay for it
just a thought
gl guys looking for a good 2nd half for all

 

[Wilson]

Where do you find what umpires are behind the plate??

 

[IE]

UMPIRE ROTATION
In general, the Umpiring rotation is as follows: HOME ---> THIRD ---> SECOND --->FIRST ---> HOME


Thus, today's first base Umpire will be behind the plate tomorrow. There are always exceptions to this rule (such as with short crews, umpire vacations, umpire injuries, etc.). But the above rotation is reliable 95 + % of the time.


Thus it is easy to anticipate which umpire will be behind the plate in a given game once the umpiring crew is known. For the second and following games of a series this information is fairly easy to determine. Just look in the boxscore for the opening game of the series and the first base umpire in that opening game will be behind the plate in game two.



For the Opening game of a series, check MLB.com and their gameday section usually 20 minutes or so or USAToday Scoreboard about 10-15 minutes or so before gametime for opening game assignments.

 

[Wilson]

thanks IE!

 

[escarzamd]

Nice info. Covers seems to be inconsistent w/ getting the ump down for every game. I still don't put all my eggs on the ump, but it is useful. I also don't believe in an ump favoring a home or road team, dog or fave. Thoughts on that?!?!? Thanks.