Betting with the public

[repoman]

How do you guys feel when you bet early and the public follows you? Do you feel stronger about the bet because people agree? Do you feel like hedging the bet because you feel too many people are on it?

Personally, I feel the general public is horrible at predicting over/unders in baseball. I think a lot of people see two pitchers and say ''well, those guys suck, it HAS to go over'' and vice versa.I also think people bet the opposite just because a line has gone one way all day and they can get a good price for it. I think i'm good at it, and don't really concern myself with how the line moves after I make my bet. Winners and losers though is kind of a different story. I think I usually have the ''smart money'' when the line moves in my favor.

As for basketball, it's too tough to say. Usually the public is decent at picking a winner, but overall it is very iffy.

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

thats a very good topic repo. i personally like to bet early the night before to get good odds on favs in baseball. but yea if i see everyone and their granma is on the same team by game time and its like 99% to 1% as in the case of BALT today. u tend to think woah that can't be good cause more often than not it goes the other way. just a few days ago CLEV was like -270 over COL and they were losing the whole game till the 9th they tied it up and won in extra innings(sqeaker) and before that MINN -320 against the giants had to battle back from a 4 run defelict and won it (sqeaker), they were all 99% one way and 1% the other. for some reason favs like that are not as easy as people think its gonna be. saying all that i hope BALT beats the hell out of COL today lol. but i am scared, hope the public and i am right on this one.

 

[gman2]

i definitely think there is something to be said for public / anti-public in football and basketball (two sports with a spread). teams can win and not cover, and players can be easily influenced by spreads.

but i think the notion that there is public / anti-public in baseball is ridiculous.

personally, i dont even look at a chalk over -130

but any sport with a moneyline, i just dont buy any kind of "public talk"

the team is either gonna win the game or theyre not.

it doesnt matter if vegas puts out -120 for santana or -320 for santana.

the twins are gonna either win or theyre not. its cut and dry.

if people want to lay high prices, thats their choice.

when the first pitch is thrown, the moneyline goes out the window. baseball teams either win for themselves and their bettors, or they lose for themselves and their bettors.

basketball and football are obviously different, as a team can win comfortably and still not cash for their bettors, and thats where lines can skew money.

in terms of the orioles example today, if the orioles lose 10-0, it certainly aint because the public was on em. it would be because they didnt play good baseball for the 2nd night in a row.

theyre either gonna win or lose. the vegas price is moot