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One of our favorite early-season College Football betting angles is to play AGAINST any single-digit road favorite following both a SU and ATS win during the month of September. This is because bettors tend to overreact to impressive performances early in the year, and knowing this, oddsmakers usually inflate the line in the next game giving some nice line value to the home underdog.
In fact, if you merely faded ALL September road favorites regardless of the line coming off of a SU and ATS win, you would have gone 200-163-2, 55.1 percent ATS since 1985, an impressive record indeed for such a large sampling over a 21-year period. The real gold mine however has been isolating such road favorites of less than 10 points, as fading these clubs produced a lucrative record of 115-82-1, 58.4 percent!
There are five games that meet the single-digit criteria this week, including the Friday night ESPN2 national telecast.
FRIDAY, September 8
Pittsburgh -8 at Cincinnati (ESPN2 - 8:00 ET) - The angle says to play on Cincinnati here after Pittsburgh covered easily in a 38-13 rout of Virginia last week. Pittsburgh has not been a good road favorite in recent years, going 3-7 ATS in this role since 2002 including just 1-4 ATS vs. Big East opponents. Also remember that in its first home game as a member of the Big East Conference last season, Cincinnati upset Connecticut as an 8-point home dog, so could it be d?j? vu this week? The Bearcats had an easy time with Eastern Kentucky last week winning 31-0, but this is obviously a step up in class. Still the play of the defense was encouraging while posting the first Cincinnati shutout in 11 years and the Cincy secondary could cause some fits for Pittsburgh quarterback Tyler Palko. If that happens, the Cats have a chance at the upset.
SATURDAY, September 9
Clemson -2 ? at Boston College (3:30 ET) - Boston College is the system play here after Clemson annihilated Florida Atlantic 54-6. Not only is this assignment significantly tougher, but the Tigers were just 6-13 ATS as a favorite over the last five years, including just 2-6 ATS when favored by less than seven points. Boston College went into Clemson and won 16-13 as a 3.5-point underdog last season, and we look for the Eagles to spring another mild upset this year. BC won its season opener 31-24 on the road at Central Michigan in a game that was not as close as the final score as the Eagles built up a 31-10 lead before coasting late. Remember also that Boston College is a sparkling 13-8, 61.9 percent ATS in this underdog role since 2001, going a respectable 9-12 SU in those games.
Indiana -3 ? at Ball State (6:30 ET) - Ball State is the play here after Indiana coasted to a 39-20 home win over another MAC team in Western Michigan. The Cardinals showed some new explosiveness on offense themselves however in a 38-20 rout of Eastern Michigan, and they would love to add a win over a Big Ten opponent to their resume. It just might happen too as there teams are really not separated by all that much talent-wise, with Indiana being favored on the road here solely because of the perceived advantage of playing in the Big Ten. However the Hoosiers are one of the weaker teams in that power conference, and they are just 3-5 ATS vs. non-conference opponents on the road since 2001.
Texas Tech -7 at UTEP (9:00 ET) - Of all the games that fit this angle this week, UTEP is the play we like the least. Texas Tech has a much more balanced offense this season with the running of Shannon Woods complimenting the usual powerful passing game, and the speedy Red Raider defense is better than many people think. Now UTEP did get by San Diego State 34-27 on the road last Thursday, but the Miners only managed 39 yards on the ground on a pathetic 1.9 yards per carry. If they do not improve on that performance and become a one-dimensional passing team again, they are outclassed in that department by the most proficient passing offense in the land. On the other hand, if UTEP does get something going on the ground, it could conceivably eat up some clock and make a game of this in front of the home fans by keeping the Tech offense on the sidelines.
Oregon -5 at Fresno State (10:00 ET) - This is a dangerous spot for an Oregon team that destroyed Stanford 48-10 in a Pac-10 contest last week. This is a normal letdown situation for the Ducks, playing a non-conference game following a conference game with a marquis match-up with Oklahoma up next. That would make Fresno State an attractive home underdog in this spot in any event, so the fact that it qualifies under the system is an added bonus. The Bulldogs have always performed well in these big early-season non-conference games, as they are a fantastic 17-6-1, 73.9 percent ATS out of conference since 2001. This includes a 6-1-1 ATS mark vs. the Pac-10, and the last time they faced an opponent from that conference they nearly upset then-undefeated USC before losing late in that classic 50-42 defeat last season. eros
One of our favorite early-season College Football betting angles is to play AGAINST any single-digit road favorite following both a SU and ATS win during the month of September. This is because bettors tend to overreact to impressive performances early in the year, and knowing this, oddsmakers usually inflate the line in the next game giving some nice line value to the home underdog.
In fact, if you merely faded ALL September road favorites regardless of the line coming off of a SU and ATS win, you would have gone 200-163-2, 55.1 percent ATS since 1985, an impressive record indeed for such a large sampling over a 21-year period. The real gold mine however has been isolating such road favorites of less than 10 points, as fading these clubs produced a lucrative record of 115-82-1, 58.4 percent!
There are five games that meet the single-digit criteria this week, including the Friday night ESPN2 national telecast.
FRIDAY, September 8
Pittsburgh -8 at Cincinnati (ESPN2 - 8:00 ET) - The angle says to play on Cincinnati here after Pittsburgh covered easily in a 38-13 rout of Virginia last week. Pittsburgh has not been a good road favorite in recent years, going 3-7 ATS in this role since 2002 including just 1-4 ATS vs. Big East opponents. Also remember that in its first home game as a member of the Big East Conference last season, Cincinnati upset Connecticut as an 8-point home dog, so could it be d?j? vu this week? The Bearcats had an easy time with Eastern Kentucky last week winning 31-0, but this is obviously a step up in class. Still the play of the defense was encouraging while posting the first Cincinnati shutout in 11 years and the Cincy secondary could cause some fits for Pittsburgh quarterback Tyler Palko. If that happens, the Cats have a chance at the upset.
SATURDAY, September 9
Clemson -2 ? at Boston College (3:30 ET) - Boston College is the system play here after Clemson annihilated Florida Atlantic 54-6. Not only is this assignment significantly tougher, but the Tigers were just 6-13 ATS as a favorite over the last five years, including just 2-6 ATS when favored by less than seven points. Boston College went into Clemson and won 16-13 as a 3.5-point underdog last season, and we look for the Eagles to spring another mild upset this year. BC won its season opener 31-24 on the road at Central Michigan in a game that was not as close as the final score as the Eagles built up a 31-10 lead before coasting late. Remember also that Boston College is a sparkling 13-8, 61.9 percent ATS in this underdog role since 2001, going a respectable 9-12 SU in those games.
Indiana -3 ? at Ball State (6:30 ET) - Ball State is the play here after Indiana coasted to a 39-20 home win over another MAC team in Western Michigan. The Cardinals showed some new explosiveness on offense themselves however in a 38-20 rout of Eastern Michigan, and they would love to add a win over a Big Ten opponent to their resume. It just might happen too as there teams are really not separated by all that much talent-wise, with Indiana being favored on the road here solely because of the perceived advantage of playing in the Big Ten. However the Hoosiers are one of the weaker teams in that power conference, and they are just 3-5 ATS vs. non-conference opponents on the road since 2001.
Texas Tech -7 at UTEP (9:00 ET) - Of all the games that fit this angle this week, UTEP is the play we like the least. Texas Tech has a much more balanced offense this season with the running of Shannon Woods complimenting the usual powerful passing game, and the speedy Red Raider defense is better than many people think. Now UTEP did get by San Diego State 34-27 on the road last Thursday, but the Miners only managed 39 yards on the ground on a pathetic 1.9 yards per carry. If they do not improve on that performance and become a one-dimensional passing team again, they are outclassed in that department by the most proficient passing offense in the land. On the other hand, if UTEP does get something going on the ground, it could conceivably eat up some clock and make a game of this in front of the home fans by keeping the Tech offense on the sidelines.
Oregon -5 at Fresno State (10:00 ET) - This is a dangerous spot for an Oregon team that destroyed Stanford 48-10 in a Pac-10 contest last week. This is a normal letdown situation for the Ducks, playing a non-conference game following a conference game with a marquis match-up with Oklahoma up next. That would make Fresno State an attractive home underdog in this spot in any event, so the fact that it qualifies under the system is an added bonus. The Bulldogs have always performed well in these big early-season non-conference games, as they are a fantastic 17-6-1, 73.9 percent ATS out of conference since 2001. This includes a 6-1-1 ATS mark vs. the Pac-10, and the last time they faced an opponent from that conference they nearly upset then-undefeated USC before losing late in that classic 50-42 defeat last season. eros
