Well started off the day on a 0-1 note with the Braves game going over......... opened a new thread to break the bad kharma
I have found four AL "black labs" that I am playing for this evening. Beware, the way games are going for me lately, you would have a better chance at finding a sober Irisishman than me winning one..... But, with proper money management it will turn around.........
Det Tigers +160 NY Yanks
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 3.20 Units
Should Lilly be over a -130 favorite over anyone West of the Devil Rays? At home he as a 5.01 ERA and has allowed 4 Earned runs in three of his last four outings. The Tigers should hit him well in this spot, since they just love to crack on lefties. Hitting .292 overall, .300 on the ROAD, and .311 in their last ten games VS. the southpaws. If Lilly struggles early we are much more likely to see someone like Choate or the Keisler types than Stanton and Rivera. After using Rivera last night, extremely doubtful they will use him today with that bum ankle.
Tor BJ's +138 Bos Red Sox
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 2.76
My glutton for punishment pick as I had the Jays last night and they were very dissapointing. The big difference in this game in my opinion will be the bullpens. All three of the Sox big guns of the BP went in last nights game. (Garces, Beck, and Lowe)...... Like the cycle we will more than likely get tonight out of that pen. In the last ten games the Jays pen has been quite a bit more effective than the Sox. Jays pen ERA in last 10 is 1.52 VS. 5.21 of the Red Sox. Another question mark is Rolando Arrojo's physical health after taking that shot in his last start, let's see if it affects this one, by the way the Sox are 0-3 in Arrojo's last three starts. Come on Loaiza give six solid innings in this one.
MN Twins +128 Oak A's
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 2.56 Units
The Twins really need to right the ship here, (much like me) and Joe Mays gives them a great chance to do it at a very nice price. Joe is 5-3 on the road with a 3.22 ERA with teams only hitting him at a .234 average. Very effective at night going 9-6 with a 3.30 ERA, FWIW. Both teams used a truck load of relievers last night so it will need a long effort out of the starters. Mays can be effective up unitl about pitch 110, then the Twins pen will have to come up big. Lidle at home has been mediocre with a 3-3 record and a 5.02 ERA. Twins need this game to stop a bad roll, so maybe a little extra fire out there from them tonight.
KC Royals +227 Sea Mariners
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 4.54 Units
I have to admit up front there is really no statistical reason that the Royals with Byrd should beat Sele and the Mariners. That being said, through the end of the season when the Mariners are a -200 favorite or more I am going to play against them. I am counting on the old stat in this game called "regression towards the mean." This might be one of the "artificial value" type of games, but if it so happens the Royals do win again this evening, it still pays "real value" money.
Good luck everyone, I am leaving for a local drinking establishment. That way if I am winning the booze is celebratory or if I am losing it is easing my sorrows....... Either way keep in mind, I am taking the advice of Johnny Belushi, "My advice is to start drinking heavily."
HC
I have found four AL "black labs" that I am playing for this evening. Beware, the way games are going for me lately, you would have a better chance at finding a sober Irisishman than me winning one..... But, with proper money management it will turn around.........
Det Tigers +160 NY Yanks
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 3.20 Units
Should Lilly be over a -130 favorite over anyone West of the Devil Rays? At home he as a 5.01 ERA and has allowed 4 Earned runs in three of his last four outings. The Tigers should hit him well in this spot, since they just love to crack on lefties. Hitting .292 overall, .300 on the ROAD, and .311 in their last ten games VS. the southpaws. If Lilly struggles early we are much more likely to see someone like Choate or the Keisler types than Stanton and Rivera. After using Rivera last night, extremely doubtful they will use him today with that bum ankle.
Tor BJ's +138 Bos Red Sox
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 2.76
My glutton for punishment pick as I had the Jays last night and they were very dissapointing. The big difference in this game in my opinion will be the bullpens. All three of the Sox big guns of the BP went in last nights game. (Garces, Beck, and Lowe)...... Like the cycle we will more than likely get tonight out of that pen. In the last ten games the Jays pen has been quite a bit more effective than the Sox. Jays pen ERA in last 10 is 1.52 VS. 5.21 of the Red Sox. Another question mark is Rolando Arrojo's physical health after taking that shot in his last start, let's see if it affects this one, by the way the Sox are 0-3 in Arrojo's last three starts. Come on Loaiza give six solid innings in this one.
MN Twins +128 Oak A's
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 2.56 Units
The Twins really need to right the ship here, (much like me) and Joe Mays gives them a great chance to do it at a very nice price. Joe is 5-3 on the road with a 3.22 ERA with teams only hitting him at a .234 average. Very effective at night going 9-6 with a 3.30 ERA, FWIW. Both teams used a truck load of relievers last night so it will need a long effort out of the starters. Mays can be effective up unitl about pitch 110, then the Twins pen will have to come up big. Lidle at home has been mediocre with a 3-3 record and a 5.02 ERA. Twins need this game to stop a bad roll, so maybe a little extra fire out there from them tonight.
KC Royals +227 Sea Mariners
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 4.54 Units
I have to admit up front there is really no statistical reason that the Royals with Byrd should beat Sele and the Mariners. That being said, through the end of the season when the Mariners are a -200 favorite or more I am going to play against them. I am counting on the old stat in this game called "regression towards the mean." This might be one of the "artificial value" type of games, but if it so happens the Royals do win again this evening, it still pays "real value" money.
Good luck everyone, I am leaving for a local drinking establishment. That way if I am winning the booze is celebratory or if I am losing it is easing my sorrows....... Either way keep in mind, I am taking the advice of Johnny Belushi, "My advice is to start drinking heavily."
HC
