Big Monday total projections

[Valuist]

I think Vegas spends about 95% of its time focusing on making good power ratings and solid side numbers and seems to totally neglect totals. 149 for Maryland/NC St? Another ACC game that flies over the total. Here's my projections for Monday. I like to have at least a 4 pt cushion from my projection to the actual line and bet accordingly:

West Virginia/Syracuse 144
Kansas/Kansas State 153
Wyoming/Utah 146

 

[Teddy KGB]

Valuist where do you get overnight lines on totals? I can never find them. And have you noticed the trend in Big East conferance play with 1H SUPER UNDER the total and 2H over? I play every big east conferance game under ... Any thoughts? Please lemme know

 

[Valuist]

Teddy-

These numbers are my projections, not the overnights. I haven't been following the Big East real closely but I know most of the games have been close. Another reason could be scheduling. I think when you see teams playing on Sat then coming right back to play Monday, they may play at a slower tempo, esp off a close game.

 

[pwine]

If you go to vegasinsider.com and go to early lines they give you totals the day before.

Thought this might help.

 

[Valuist]

Thanks Pwine-

No other site seems to post them early. Based on the Vegas Insider numbers, the only game I'm considering is Wyoming/Utah OVER 143.

 

[renata]

NCAA O/U

NCAA O/U

Tedy, thegreek.com offers all O/U, they offers 1st and 2nd half totals, teams totals for 1st and 2nd half too

 

[Valuist]

Teddy KGB-

Here's your chance. The public can't get enough of this WV/Syra over. Its up to 148 now. Reminds me of the BC/Providence total on Saturday. They pounded the over and the game easily went under the total. I've got my 4 pt cushion so I'll join your under bandwagon here.

BTW, why on earth is Syracuse in the top 25? I thought I saw a missprint. Now *THATS* the East Coast bias at work.

 

[Valuist]

Teddy KGB-

Thanks for the trend info. Another 1st half under, 2nd half over in the Big East

 

[superbook]

FWIW I played Wyo/Utah Under 143.

I see this game being played at Utah's pace, and Utah's defense is only allowing 61 points/game against and is pretty tough at defending against the 3 (at 29%).

I see both teams scoring in the mid-60's, but I don't have much experience at Totals.

gl

 

[Reroy]

Superbook, Utah does defend the 3 exceptionally well, but Wyoming strength is on the inside. These two teams have played over 149 their last 3 meetings. Utah shooting exceptionally well from behind the arc, especially at home. I'm going with over 142 for 2 units. If Wyoming cant take advantage of their size and strength inside, you may be right with the under. good luck