Line has moved from +2.5 to -1.5 where I shop. fwiw, i'm taking a 5x "holiday flyer" on the Bulls, tracking the line movement and factoring in all of the below.
Maybe the USF QB is playing? Anyway, found this on Action sports. Their writeups have been very helpful and their picks pretty solid. Anyway, just underscoring some of what Smitty shared in his post:
The loss of Nash will have a major impact on a San Jose State team that was ultra-reliant on the receiver. More than 35% of passing yards and target share went to the NFL-bound talent, leaving Stutzmann to create a new passing attack against USF.
The usage of 12 personnel could come into play, as tight ends Jackson Canaan and Jacob Stewart combined for 79 targets out of the slot.
Expect Lockhart to get additional attention from USF's nickel defense without Nash on the field. The Bulls finished top-45 in pass breakups but outside the top 100 in explosives, so the Spartans' uptempo offense could either experience some three-and-outs or explosive scores.
Ultimately, USF's rushing attack will find plenty of success against San Jose State using inside zone and counter. The Spartans defense finished dead last in Line Yards and Stuff Rate against one of the worst schedules in the country.
There are whispers that Brown may return for the Hawaii Bowl — a scenario that would further increase the Bulls' advantage on the ground.
Look for points on the San Jose State side to come after the offense adjusts to life without Nash, which could create an opportunity for a second-half over.
Pick: USF +3 or Better
Maybe the USF QB is playing? Anyway, found this on Action sports. Their writeups have been very helpful and their picks pretty solid. Anyway, just underscoring some of what Smitty shared in his post:
The loss of Nash will have a major impact on a San Jose State team that was ultra-reliant on the receiver. More than 35% of passing yards and target share went to the NFL-bound talent, leaving Stutzmann to create a new passing attack against USF.
The usage of 12 personnel could come into play, as tight ends Jackson Canaan and Jacob Stewart combined for 79 targets out of the slot.
Expect Lockhart to get additional attention from USF's nickel defense without Nash on the field. The Bulls finished top-45 in pass breakups but outside the top 100 in explosives, so the Spartans' uptempo offense could either experience some three-and-outs or explosive scores.
Ultimately, USF's rushing attack will find plenty of success against San Jose State using inside zone and counter. The Spartans defense finished dead last in Line Yards and Stuff Rate against one of the worst schedules in the country.
There are whispers that Brown may return for the Hawaii Bowl — a scenario that would further increase the Bulls' advantage on the ground.
Look for points on the San Jose State side to come after the offense adjusts to life without Nash, which could create an opportunity for a second-half over.
Pick: USF +3 or Better
Early Christmas present!