Big Saturday

[Nickelback]

Lots of games to choose from. . . lots of great games. . . here are my early looks:


Virginia over North Carolina
Kansas over UCLA
Kansas/UCLA over the posted total
Cal over Oregon St
Oregon over Stanford*
Bowling Green over Buffalo
Illinois Chicago over Wisconsin Mil.
Hawaii over Southern Methodist
Manhattan over Marist
Mississippi over Miss. St.*

The two games with a * are system plays. . . play an unranked home favorite over a ranked away dog. Great percentages over the years as once again, Vegas knows better than those who vote in the polls!

Concerns:

Of the plays listed above, only one is an underdog and only three are home teams.

Optimism:

The picks above are quality teams with excellent ATS records so far this season (for the most part). It would take a lot of upsets both ATS and straight up for me to lose my :moon: If I played one of these games as opposed to all of them, I feel like it would be a greater risk.

Therefore, I'm considering a play on each of the above games for the SAME amount. I feel that it is relatively safe with a tremendous upside IF the favorites have their way.

 

[Nickelback]

Let me add some reasons why I feel there is value in these plays and why the lines are set the way they are:

:director:

Virginia/NC: The game is being played at North Carolina and Vegas will continue to issue lines of value to play against NC because there are many gamblers that will back the Tar Heels no matter how pathetic they look. Gotta remember there are still gamblers that do not change with the times! Notre Dame will still be the best football team to them and North Carolina will always be a powerhouse with a superior home court advantage!

Kansas/UCLA: Can't imagine UCLA ever being a huge dog on their home floor. Same tradition as NC but hosting a superior team that they will not be able to stop on offense. I see a high scoring game well above the posted total.

Cal/Oregon State: This line just might be a trap. . . however, the Oregon schools have always played extremely well at home and may be recognized by Vegas. Still looking into this game.

Bowling Green/Buffalo: How many capper really know about Bowling Green? How much of the public that doesn't follow college basketball that closely yet has decided to make a few bets over the weekend during their stay in Vegas? Get the point? If Buffalo was getting 7+ points or so at home, Buffalo would most certainly be hit by the cappers mentioned.

Ill. Chi./Wis. Mil.: Basically the same reasoning. . . how many cappers really know about Illinois Chicago? Almost similar to Cal Irvine last year IMO when looking at teams like these.

Hawaii/SMU: How many cappers from the United States follows Hawaii? How many are smart enough to consider the huge homecourt advantage that the Bows really have? SMU had one day to travel to the islands and get ready for this one.

Manhattan/Marist: Same reasoning as Ill. Chicago and Bowling Green. No question this will be a dogfight, but Manhattan is a hot team right now!

Miss St./Ole Miss: Points look awfully inviting to a team that recently defeated Kentucky right? Too bad it was on their home floor. Anybody remember what happened the very next game?!?!

Just random thoughs and maybe a waste. . . however, I believe there are not any better lines for college hoops than on Saturdays when the uninformed public becomes even more of a factor.

Final plays to come in the morning. . .

 

[Neemer]

i really really really like four of those...thanks for the added info......

 

[THE KOD]

Good work Nickel


I am on four of these with you ..

Scott-Atlanta

 

[Guerilla_Ninja]

BG is strong. they will do what Kent should have done in BUF last week. based on your comments... how many 'cappers know BUF??? this line has moved a whole half point in the BUF favor! is BUF the FL of NCAAF? is BUF the LAL of the NBA? the NYY of MLB?

just having some fun with ya!

GL today!

if you don't mind, i'll drop two of my plays in here:

SIU (-10)
PIT (-4-)

 

[Nickelback]

Guerilla,

No problem at all! Good point about Buffalo! LOL

Gonna stick with the plays I have already listed and add:

3 team ML parlay

Kentucky
Detroit
James Madison

Kentucky's losing streak will end at two. . . Detroit will win but may not cover the spread. . . and James Madison should be just fine at home. . . still looking at playing them and laying 7.5 points, but not sure yet.

 

[Nickelback]

Adding Kentucky laying 3.5. . . they get back on the winning side today (and hopefully cover of course!)

 

[Nickelback]

Adding UMASS ML based on a tip. . .

Will also play Georgia once the line hits its lowest point. Can't believe all of those on Tennessee that are probably expecting the Bulldogs to letdown after their win against Kentucky. . .