Big Time line value/writeup...need some input

[Marra]

Am I missing something with this TCU line?

TCU (-8.5) at East Carolina
Looking at both teams, TCU should be favored by at least 13. How is East Carolina going to score? Not on the ground, TCU has one of the best run defenses in the country. Not through the air, as TCU is only giving up 5.6 y/att. Here are the stats

Yards on "O"
TCU-361
E Carolina-357

Yards given up on "D"
TCU-247
ECaro-445.2


TCU averages .5 more yards per rush, and gives up 3 yards less on defense!

So, TCU is going to be able to move the ball HOWEVER they want, on the ground, or through the air. E Carolina wont be able to. I dont see how!

TCU is on a 8 game winning streak, and it should be 9 b/c they lost to Cincy on a complete fluke. They have beaten some good teams-
Louisville by 14
So Miss by 30
Tulane
No Texas

E Carolina has beat, in total, well-
Houston
Army
Tulane

I dont understand the line. Comments appriciated. Possible GOY.

Duke (-3) at home vs. North Carolina
N.C. has been in a complete tailspin since the loss of their QB and their leader- Darian Durant
I saw them play at ASU, and they actually looked real good. That was their last win. ASU should have won that game by 20 (turnovers, penaltys), but I give N.C. credit for sqeaking out the victory. Since then, they have lost 6 in a row. Duke has a statistical advantage in
Offense
Defense (yards allowed)
Yards per rush offensively/defensively
Yards per attempt offensively/defensively.

Now, Duke has lost 6 in a row as well, but played N.C. State and Clemson very tough. I see home field, and the statistics shining through and Duke winning by 10.

Running out of time but here are some more games
USC (-5) at UCLA (why is the line so low? USC is the best team in the conference.)
BYU (+7.5) at Utah (pretty even in my eyes, rivalry game, and getting a touchdown and the hook? Give me the points.
Tulsa (+9) at SMU
see above.

 

[buddy]

Last week, lottsa' folks thought the same thing about TULANE -19 v Army.

Army (-19) -21 @ TULANE

Final: Army, 14-10

 

[IX_Bender]

Check the injury report

 

[CrazyHorse]

I was thinking the same thing when I saw this line. I think part of it is TCU just isn't a public team like Louisville and S. Miss even though they are the best team (IMO) in the conference with a suffocating defense. Being mostly a dog bettor part of the reason I am hesitant is that I just don't like road favorites too often but this looks like as solid a spot to take one as I have seen. ECU has been a major disappointment last yr and this yr. Still trying to decide but it does seem low when you look at TCUs #s, especially on defense.

I think on the Duke line it is public perception again. Public sees Duke as a fav over any ACC team and thinks it is wrong. But Duke is a much improved team and, like you said, UNC has been in a free fall since they lost their QB.

USC is the best team in the PAC10 imo despite the fact they lost to WSU. But I am not a fan of taking road fav's in rivalry games. I know USC will have alot of fans there but I still feel the home team has a big advantage in these games w/ all the emotion surrounding rivalry week. Even w/ UCLA's QB issues they are playing some good ball and think they can get w/in this #. USC did beat UCLA last yr when UCLA was a 3-4pt favorite on the road.

I guess it boils down to the fact the oddsmakers put the line where they hope for 50/50 action. If they put the line where they think it should be maybe TCU would open as a 13pt fav. If that happened they may get too much one sided action, even if they gradually move the line. So maybe public is unaware of just how good this TCU team is since they are not on espn as much as Louisville or USM. Not trying to sound like I am some sharp capper and the public is stupid but when I see lines like this that is what I believe.

 

[Marra]

I can't not bet the game just b/c of the Army/Tulane game last week.

I agree Crazyhorse. I cant worry about "why" the line is the way it is, that's when the bookies get you. They want you to think. I saw the line, researched it, and see that TCU has a lot of value.

 

[gardenweasel]

when in doubt

when in doubt

take the solid defense.......this may also apply to oklahoma- texas tech.....tech`s "d" is horrible....and they will fight to score every point at the sooners....i see tcu grinding east carolina on both sides of the ball...ecu won`t run,and troth is very mistake prone.....tcu only has memphis left at home..ecu got some credibility by beating defenseless houston...don`t be fooled......the frogs won`t slip up.......it`s only a td.....just an opinion....g.l.......btw,go back and check the way ucla and usc closed the year out last year (last 4 or 5 games)....usc,although the dog,was the much better team by the end of the year ....much like they are this year.....

 

[joefrog91]

First post here, but I had to say a little about my Frogs.

TCU's offense "woke up" when our starting QB Sean Stilley went down and was replaced with RS fresh. Tye Gunn. They also took the RS off fresh. phenom Lonta Hobbs at RB 5 games into the season and he's been awesome. He has rushed for 507 yrds in 5 games, averages 6.2 yrds per carry and has 7 TD's.

Tye then went out with a season ending knee injury. Sean came back a little rusty and did not cover against Tulane. TCU's defense scored on a blocked punt and the kicker made 3 FG's.

East Carolina can be tough to beat at home, but this year's squad is hurting and TCU's defense is playing better than the 2000 squad that was number one in the nation at that time.

Sean will be ready to play tomorrow and should put up plenty to cover IMHO. Especially since we have both our starting WR's healthy. Hope this helps.

 

[Marra]

Adding Iowa St (-17) at home vs. UCONN.


They are 15-1 ATS as a favorite or PK. Connecticut has won 3 straight, against the defensive powerhouses Navy, Florida Atlantic, and Kent St. They beat all 3 convincingly, on top of Iowa St losing their last 2 to Colorado and Kan St, we get some line value. I dont see them winning by less than 20 here. UConn wont be able to stop Seneca Wallace and they will be wanting to beat up on someone after the last 2 weeks. Plus, its Seneca Wallace's last home game. I am liking this game more and more the more I write about it.

GLTA

 

[Buck]

there is not a percentage higher than this at wagerline:


11/23/02 35 Tcu 273 80.77% -8.5 East Carolina 65 19.23% Detail

 

[Loser]

Army plays one good game a year... this week Memphis takes them down to earth. But beware Army winning ats lately showing strong will to win a game. They did... last week.

 

[Marra]

It scares me a little that everyone and there mother is on TCU, but the 2 teams are going to play and they dont care about who is on who. I think TCU is far and away the better team and hopefully will cover the 8 point spread. I just can't see how E Carolina is going to score. The only way I can think of is special teams, or maybe a fluke pass or something. There is NO way they are going to be able to run on TCU. Their pass defense is also above average. It should be about a 20 point victory for the Horny Frogs.

 

[ferdville]

Home or road makes no difference in USC - UCLA. USC has played at the Rose Bowl many times. Neither uses the Rose Bowl for practice. USC actually located closer to Rose Bowl than UCLA. I think that USC has too many offensive weapons for UCLA to combat. Karem Kelly is 8 pass receptions away from being all-time leader at USC - and he is the #2 go to guy, not even #1. Fargas adds alot to the USC offense because he is a very fast straight ahead runner that complements their passing attack perfectly. UCLA has a potent offense despite QB problems, but the problem is that USC possesses a better offense. If USC shuts down Bell, like they have most other opposition running backs, the Bruins are in trouble. USC has better offense and better defense. And for the first time in many years, their kicking game is actually solid. USC wins this one by double digits.