YTD: 8-4 on posted plays
This is always an interesting time of year to wager on the NFL. On the one hand you've got a lot of games in hand which give you a pretty good idea of who's good and bad overall and also what each team does and doesn't do well. On the other hand, as the people in Minnesota can definitely tell you today, the weather becomes a huge wildcard. All that being said, except for the extreme cases (like the Bears/Pats today) I think you have to just try to put the weather out of your mind and cap based on the combo of stats and situation as per usual. Going with these today:
Redskins +3:
I'm kind of doing this one through gritted teeth. I had been riding the Skins early in the year when they were playing everyone close, but the last 2 weeks it's been hard to defend them (figuratively, not literally; it actually appears that it's been real easy to defend them on the field). Nevertheless I think this is a good spot for them. I think that Tampa ends up with a hangover from last week's collapse against the Falcons. They've gone from looking like a surefire playoff team to probable outsider in 2 weeks. On the other hand, the Skins got completely embarrassed last week and have dropped 3 straight home games. Think they come out with a good effort today. I don't put a whole ton of stock in who the public favorite is, but I'm seeing 63% on Tampa and the line hasn't budged from 3. Vegas seems to be begging people to take the Bucs.
Buffalo -1:
Two teams that have won me quite a bit this year (last weekend notwithstanding) square off today. This game comes down to 3 factors for me. The Bills bouncing back from a real bad loss last week, the Bills having played a lot better at home the last couple games (a W vs Detroit and a 3-pt OT loss to the Steelers), and the fact that I don't have a lot of faith that the Browns can win back to back road games.
Back with more later. As of right now I'm leaning towards the Rams in the late games and Dallas tonight.
GLTA!
This is always an interesting time of year to wager on the NFL. On the one hand you've got a lot of games in hand which give you a pretty good idea of who's good and bad overall and also what each team does and doesn't do well. On the other hand, as the people in Minnesota can definitely tell you today, the weather becomes a huge wildcard. All that being said, except for the extreme cases (like the Bears/Pats today) I think you have to just try to put the weather out of your mind and cap based on the combo of stats and situation as per usual. Going with these today:
Redskins +3:
I'm kind of doing this one through gritted teeth. I had been riding the Skins early in the year when they were playing everyone close, but the last 2 weeks it's been hard to defend them (figuratively, not literally; it actually appears that it's been real easy to defend them on the field). Nevertheless I think this is a good spot for them. I think that Tampa ends up with a hangover from last week's collapse against the Falcons. They've gone from looking like a surefire playoff team to probable outsider in 2 weeks. On the other hand, the Skins got completely embarrassed last week and have dropped 3 straight home games. Think they come out with a good effort today. I don't put a whole ton of stock in who the public favorite is, but I'm seeing 63% on Tampa and the line hasn't budged from 3. Vegas seems to be begging people to take the Bucs.
Buffalo -1:
Two teams that have won me quite a bit this year (last weekend notwithstanding) square off today. This game comes down to 3 factors for me. The Bills bouncing back from a real bad loss last week, the Bills having played a lot better at home the last couple games (a W vs Detroit and a 3-pt OT loss to the Steelers), and the fact that I don't have a lot of faith that the Browns can win back to back road games.
Back with more later. As of right now I'm leaning towards the Rams in the late games and Dallas tonight.
GLTA!
