bills @ jags....let's nail this game

[casper]

ok fellas, let's have some input here...let's get this thread going, i want to hear from everyone so we can nail this game.

biggest thing that stood out to me is the turnover ratios...jags are +8 and bills are -14. it's impossible to win game with that type of ball handling. jags haven't dominated anyone either, esp. for having a +8 t/o ratio...jags had 2 picks and 2 recovered fumbles vs the steelers and won 21-3, beat tenn 13-6, lost to seattle at seattle and lost to cleveland at home. mack has actually done pretty well for the jags averaging 4.3 yards/carry, while the jags as a team have averaged 3.8 yards/carry as a team.

henry has rushed for 3.8 yards/carry, as a team bills have 4.7 y/c, but that is inflated due to johnson's yards running for his life and a few long runs by price.

if the bills can protect johnson at all and keep from putting the ball on the ground then they can win this game let alone cover. jags haven't really impressed me, feel like this line is an exaggeration on the bills record...they are bad, but i don't know about 9 points bad...

agree, disagree, let's hear it!!

 

[Da_Insider]

good work on the turnover ratio stats, casper!

i'm in total agreement with you in regards to the fact that the bills must establish the ground game, in order for johnson to be somewhat effective. with the running game, they can also protect the ball and clock a bit better.

good stuff!

da insider.

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Bet With Your Wallet, Not With Your Heart.

 

[yearofthesnake]

well, I'll tell you one thing the Bills O-line is laughable. They have a players starting from their practice squad.


Buff has played horribly. The points they scored agasint Indy and the Jets were mostly garbage points, and the only way to play them is strictly a guess that Jax is in worse shape then noted.

This Buff team has shown a zippo lighter, and playing an angry team on the road with better players should prove to be long night for them.


But, Jax is not without their own problems however, and laying 9 is something I wouldn't do. But, playing the Bills is like paying your Bills.

 

[twofingers]

I'll have a write up on game tomorrow morning but here are a few points i'd like to make:

1) OL is back healthy. Fina and Jennings are both ready to go 100%. They will have to do a good job in pass blocking here as Jax is a blitzing team that likes to get at QB.

2) Everyone talks about lack of offense but it is the defense that needs to make a statement here for Bills. Bills should be able to contain running game after facing Williams (NO), James (IC), Bettis (PS) and Martin (NYJ) in consecutive weeks. Mack will mosly likely start for Jax but was benched in Seattle after two 1st half fumbles. With no running game, Jax offense has stumbled. Now they lose Boselli. WR's have only 1 TD since first half of first game. If Bills can get pressure on Brunell, they should be able to contain Jax offense. Bills talking about using LB Foreman more in blitz package this week.

3) HC Williams and DC Gray very familiar with Jax from Tennessee days. Remember the hold that the Titans had over Jax last three years?

4) Johnson was looking better in 1st half vs. Jets before geting kicked in the head on scramble and knocked out of game. No concussion, just a sore neck. The fumble that jets returned for a TD was not his fault, got blindsided. I hope that Johnson saw how to use Centers from Van pelt in 2nd half. RB out of backfield is so important in west coast offense , ala Roger Craig in SF. Johnson has to play better or i would not be surprised to see van pelt again. Talk shows in upstate NY indicate that fans want Van pelt now but Bills, rightfully so, will stick with Johnson as starter as long as he is healthy.

Bills showed improvement against Jets except for TO's, which killed them. Two returned for TD's and another set up a martin run for TD. Bills may benefit from getting away from NY as they have played three of four at home and fans getting restless and letting them know it. I like the nine points and think that Bills can put up at least 17 points here. makes Jax score 26 to push which could be tough with past history against Williams and all the injuries on offense that make Jax pretty one demensional.

 

[twofingers]

Weather does not look like it will be a factor. Cloudy and 55. No rain in forecast. Could be windy so check forecast tomorrow.

 

[Da_Insider]

twofingers,

i love the analysis which include a few things that i either missed or overlooked in my analysis (see thread)...

- bills OL must play and defend QB
- familiarity with jags offensive system

i see a possible hedge play here with the line at +9 and 38 1/2 by taking the bills and over. the only problem here is bills need to score 15pts for us to be safe, which means 3 possessions....???

da indiser.

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Bet With Your Wallet, Not With Your Heart.

 

[pepin46]

i was going to abstain from writing this week to see if i can get the monkey off my back. here is an opinion, not a prediction:

one of the weirdest things happened last week at the jets, when miami goes ahead 17-0 and the game was either a push or barely over (i had miami and the over).

one of the barometers i use is the ability of the visiting team, especially a big dog, to get ahead in the score and "push" the totals over, while covering the line. my two for one special times 2 (4 play), and still waiting for one to come in this season.

does buffalo have the ability, and jax the weakness to allow a couple of quick scores? therein lies the question of the over probabilites, and not so the other way around, when the home team will tend to change their game plan and go for long, tedious drives, without regard to scoring any additional tds.

of course, when you get into a high incidence of turnovers, there is no telling what the outcome will be. sometimes they are both so bad, neither will cash in, and other times one of the opposing teams will make the most of it and score at will, usually the result of a total defensive collapse on the other side.

i think this in part answers the balt/g.b. question, when a couple of bad breaks/plays, together with too little rest for the defense, allowed mr favre to shine, quite a contrast to that look of hopelessness he had in tampa. the interceptions/fumbles helped also, but the penetration of the baltimore defense was an aberration, although it is now twice this year it has happened.

these two teams in their present state look awful, and to try to guess the totals here is like flipping a coin, in my view.

seems like the general reaction to the 9 point line was to grab buff, but then, where did vegas come up with that line if so many of us don't think it can be achieved?

is this really a projected diff. in score, or a magnet to draw money to buff? is this the projected result of the turnover differential anticipated? i have a feeling it is the latter.

will watch this one if they show it here.


pep

 

[twofingers]

I agree tha turnovers are the most difficult thing to predict. I think it is safe to say that buffalo will not continue at the pace that they have turned the ball over, for the remainder of the year. They have one of the more inexperienced teams in the league since Williams decided to cut loose so many veterens in camp and therefore can be expected to turn the ball over more, especially early in the year. I have to beleive that some of these "bad breaks" will correct themselves and we will see Buffalo's start to get a few balls bounce their way. How else do you account for nine forced fumbles and only 1 recovery?? On the other hand Bills have fumbled 6 times in last two games and lost 4 of them. Bills have turned ball over 11 times and have taken it away 3 times this year. you don't win with that differential.

jags have forced 8 fumbles and recovered 5 of them and intercepted 4 passes. jags have only lost 4 of 11 fumbles and have been picked off 2 times. They have a 9-6 turnover differential.

A few fortunate bounces and Bills could be 2-2. In that case, and given jags performance last two outings plus injuries, this line is no where near 9 points.

 

[SmashMouth]

Jacksonville should not be favorite by 9 over anyone. That said I made a teaser Jags -2.5 under 45. Jags will look to control the ball. But after last week what the hell do I know.

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Dawgs are a man's best friend.

 

[yearofthesnake]

I don't know if you've ever seen the bills play this year but believe me, the bills would have needed more then a few fortunate bounces to be 2-2. This could be the worst team in the NFL, and is one the worst five without doubt. there's no way around this team being bad.

if you want to say you don't believe in Jax, or in fact that they're not really good because of one thing or another +injuries fine, but in their last two home games they've won given up what, 3 and 6 points to better teams.

Their loss to Clev is a little scary, but the Sea loss wasn't bad

 

[spanky2]

This game says 2 things to me;
1.PASS
2. TEASER
Other than that,why play this shit.And I do think Bills ARE in the top 5 worst teams...Spankster...
I see WAY too many Bills games living 60 miles away,WAY too many...BAD TEAM!!!!!!