Billy Blastoff baseball theory

[fsulaxstud1]

I AM NOT HIM!!!! SO THIS IS MY THEORY BASED OFF OF HIS.
"If Halladay is on the road and he is +115 and he is pitching against Ricky Nolasco and the Marlins at -125..... who do you take.... go against the common trend that Nolasco and the Fish... Ever since I read Billy Blastoff's thread I have been attempting to develop a theory like his that will work for baseball so anyways here it goes..."
1- Anytime the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox have a top 3 starter pitching and are -140 or less fade them.
2- Anytime the Royals, Pirates, Nationals, Baltimore, Cleveland are favored bet with them unless thhey are playing one of these other teams on this list teams
3- Always bet against the Cubs--- huge market, huge fanhood, no talent
4- If a great pitcher is up against a no name and (this is an ESPN theory because i believe the majority of the public perception is altered by ESPN) so if a household name on a good team is -150 or less fade them
5- anytime a team is -250 or higher take them
6- when a line is -120 or less check public betting percentages and fade the public when public is on one team 66.666% or more


This is pretty much it.... here are my picks I will post recods and dollar amount.

PS- wait till the last minute as the public will be fading us heavily and the line should go in our favor

All lines from BODOG

Baltimore-135 680 to win 500

Houston -120 600 to win 500

Pittsburgh+105.... 500 to win 525

 

[eeeerock]

I like it!!!!!

 

[tig3rs]

you know, there's not that much $ bet on baseball day to day, let alone any one game.

billy does well in bball because that sport's bet heavier and there's many more games with lots of attention.

good luck though. think setting arbitrary #s like this is kinda strange for baseball. it's a much more dynamic sport to bet if you want to win AND be profitable.

CAN'T WAIT FOR COLLEGE HOOPS TO START UP!

 

[fsulaxstud1]

ok
2-1 (+375) on the night... and I agree with a post written just before that certain arbitrary numbers (lines) will hinder me making a profit so I will justify why I am making each pick that I do... My system is not rated on a Q factor like his is and also I don't have a computer telling me my selections... I basically am giving you a guideline as to how I have won baseball this year(fading the public and not taking any value bets)

for example a value bet may be
yankees -360 cc sabathia
vs.
toranto +320 marcum
.... many people will look at a line like this and say well, if I put $35 on toranto i have a CHANCE to win... in my eyes this chance is not a good one... vegas is making the line soooooo high so that people will make value plays so that they can make money. This is again just my opinion but it has been working. Let's track my progress for the next month to see how it goes. Good luck to anyone following

and fading the public
yankees cc sabathia -130
vs.
oakland
gio gonzalez +120
this is a classic example of when people will be bettiing the yankees.. I take the A's