Seeing the predictors say Jacksonville St should win by 7+ and Vegas pegged the line at 3, I'm hoping for the former.
Billy Blastoff
- Thread starter Billy Blastoff
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Seeing the predictors say Jacksonville St should win by 7+ and Vegas pegged the line at 3, I'm hoping for the former.
me too, locman. i actually look at a couple of other prediction models, and they both show jax st favored by a higher number. so the theory basis for these plays is that there is some "x" factor that has caused the linesmakers to reduce this line to -3. sometimes you just have to hold your nose and believe.
This SE MO team is downright pathetic... think I'll take them small, but this is scary as they are awful.
- Mar 16, 2002
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You gus are missing the entire point.. it?s to bet shit that looks bad.. like betting any home unranked team vs a ranked team at home.. pretty sure vegas is smarter than us.. does it make it a winner no, I?m betting with vegas every time
yep, you catch a lot of ugly as it's counterintuitive. i said "x" factor above, but i believe bb used to refer to it as the "q" factor. i defer to his nomenclature.
Locman
Locman
200 games today and I see ONE qualifying game today that are in the rules of B.B. system.
North Carolina +8 over Duke.
:0008:0008:0008
Locman
200 games today and I see ONE qualifying game today that are in the rules of B.B. system.
North Carolina +8 over Duke.
:0008:0008:0008
for those of you who may not be aware, it takes a great deal of time to screen over 200 Saturday games for plays under this system. kudos and thanks are in order for locman and doc hollidayfor their efforts in helping all of us.
on other fronts, thought i would mention that i attended the wrestling dual meet between #3 nc state and #8 unc at reynolds coliseum last night. what a momentous experience. with a record wresting crowd of 4400 in attendance screaming their heads off, the wolfpack prevailed 19-14. it came down to the last match of the evening when with 20 seconds remaining, heavyweight deonte wilson scored a takedown to seal a 5-2 win. never knew a college wresting meet could be so entertaining.
on other fronts, thought i would mention that i attended the wrestling dual meet between #3 nc state and #8 unc at reynolds coliseum last night. what a momentous experience. with a record wresting crowd of 4400 in attendance screaming their heads off, the wolfpack prevailed 19-14. it came down to the last match of the evening when with 20 seconds remaining, heavyweight deonte wilson scored a takedown to seal a 5-2 win. never knew a college wresting meet could be so entertaining.
Thanks, loophole.. as I've said, all the credit goes to Billy. It's his system and he was gracious enough to share it with us. I just plug in the numbers and post what spits out.
1-0 yesterday with UNC winning wire-to-wire until the final few min.. and then falling in OT, comfortably covering the 7'
No plays today.
Interesting to note that I am still seeing quite a few >4 delta for 7ots, but much less from Talisman.. making plays rather infrequent as you can see from the lack of plays. It seems like Talisman is starting to mirror the opening vegas line much more closely, while 7ots still has a bunch that would qualify. Anyways, thought I'd pass along the observation.
It would take a lot of data crunching, but I wonder if there is another predictor that could be used in place of Talisman to trigger more plays with a positive ROI.
Happy to work any data geeks to try to figure it out.
Interesting to note that I am still seeing quite a few >4 delta for 7ots, but much less from Talisman.. making plays rather infrequent as you can see from the lack of plays. It seems like Talisman is starting to mirror the opening vegas line much more closely, while 7ots still has a bunch that would qualify. Anyways, thought I'd pass along the observation.
It would take a lot of data crunching, but I wonder if there is another predictor that could be used in place of Talisman to trigger more plays with a positive ROI.
Happy to work any data geeks to try to figure it out.
- Sep 25, 2014
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Quality is better than Quantity
Quality is better than Quantity
Thanks for posting. I, like many others, would love to see your picks everyday and I truly appreciate it when a good one comes along. When the right pick shows its face I know that that pick is probably GOLDEN. Thanks for taking the time and sharing your information with the Forum.
Quality is better than Quantity
Thanks for posting. I, like many others, would love to see your picks everyday and I truly appreciate it when a good one comes along. When the right pick shows its face I know that that pick is probably GOLDEN. Thanks for taking the time and sharing your information with the Forum.
Same story.. several show up for 7ots, few for Talisman.. but there is ONE play tonight:
Oklahoma -10' vs. Iowa St (line is now -10)
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I am personally going to expand the system a bit and try a few things. I will clearly note any plays that I am playing that do not qualify. This is NOT a Billy's system play:
UNLV -1' vs. Nevada
Good luck, MJers!
Oklahoma -10' vs. Iowa St (line is now -10)
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I am personally going to expand the system a bit and try a few things. I will clearly note any plays that I am playing that do not qualify. This is NOT a Billy's system play:
UNLV -1' vs. Nevada
Good luck, MJers!
Locman, The problem with Oklahoma being a play is Iowa State just lost their best player and lottery pick Haliburton for the season so this would be the reason for the inflated spread. Just something to consider in this instance.
I think DD is saying the predictors assume Haliburton is playing, but the oddsmaker knows this (as does the public) and thus reflected in the line, and it's not a "vegas knows more" angle, but rather the predictors are missing it - which is why the line is much higher than the predictors.
DD, it's a good point. I'm not sure how to account for it, and to truly know is the predictors adjust for this type of information. Interesting to see the line is now down to 9.
