Black Friday

[selkirk]

This is the big shopping day in the US, a kick off to the holiday season that will answer many questions.

this will not be a great holiday season for sales, that is known, but how bad, or can it improve on last years numbers.

with unemployed at 10.2 % and 17% under employed (the total number counting part time / who want to be full time, ect.) this number has to improve.

many economist always state this is a lagging number and that is true, however jobs will have to come back before the recovery can be sustained.

interest rates: someone in my shareclub believe interst rates were going to climb in the US.

this is wrong, the central banks of most countries want to keep the rates low, for as long as possible... In the US and Canada you have rising unemployment, and many with reduced hours. you also have a large debt (consumer), any interest rate increases would kill any recovery.

thanks
selkirk

 

[kneifl]

I agree....

I agree....

However, I'd like to point out that in the future we'll see retail take a serious trend towards online. Hell, it already has. Believe me, we'll see more of it. Like a lot of online retail stocks right now like EBAY, AMZN, OSTK, and there are a few others.

kneifl

 

[selkirk]

kneifl agree online sales will expand, actually cyber monday, which follows black friday has changed already in ten years.

ten years ago people had slower internet connections, so they would wait until at work (in some cases- productive?) to do online shopping.

today there are more choices and the average home has high speed internet...(internet will get much quicker, in ten years the speed will be much faster, will be like comparing dial up to the fastest connection available today)

do not follow retail, that is one sector I should have, since it rebounded sharply, missed it.
have used ebay 3 times, and Amazon twice...like their free shipping.

use to short Amzn, back in the internet days (near the end of the tech bubble), did well on it, though covered my shorts to soon.
I was always in the bear camp based on valuation.
and even if they had a business was a question.

well they do, and they are not just books, but a large online retailer... they are a company I might consider in the future however believe because of the rally in the stock the shares are fully priced.

have never followed overstock, and ebay have made a large acquisiton that blew billions....do not know their valuation.

on a correction or time to get the earnings caught up would look at amzn... would not be a short candidate there are plenty that have no earnings and debt, and high valuations... amzn has growing earnings...just believe they are fully priced.

thanks
selkirk