BMW Asian Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1pt):

Alex Cejka to win 25/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power and Victor Chandler
Not an established player on the PGA Tour with a 4th place finish in the PGA Championship last year, Cejka is a quality player in this field without the headline player odds. On his last start in Asia, he finished 3rd in the 2002 Malaysian Open, and if this course is tight and the greens less than usual European Tour-standard, this should suit Cejka's 'fairways-and-greens' game.

Prayad Marsaeng to win 40/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and Victor Chandler
Marksaeng has a good record in co-sanctioned events. He finished 3rd in the Malaysian Open earlier this year, 7th in the Hong Kong Open in December last year and 3rd in the Singapore Masters at the start of last year. He is clearly not fazed by the arrival of the European Tour and players on considerable appearance fees. His form on the Japan Tour is solid, but he clearly raises his game for these events and so represents value.

Joon-Kyung Mo to win 80/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Admittedly he won the 1996 Guam Open on this Tour, but Joon-Kyung Mo has hardly shown the promise in his 10-year career to warrant consideration for selection ... until this year. The Korean has played four times and finished in the top-10 on every occasion with finishes of 8th, 7th, 3rd and 2nd. That last runners-up was courtesy of a lost playoff for the China Masters two weeks against a field including Phillip Price and Nick Faldo. He is clearly is a purple patch of form and so if that continues he looks decent value at these odds.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

will try a 72 holer this week
Cejka +105 over Jiminez @ 5 Dimes

Been experimenting a little with this tour since I can view year and did get one to the house last week--
Damovo British Masters - Top 5 - Eduardo Romero 13/1 $10.00 $130.00 W $140.00 $130.00
---but for most part been hit and miss and not too comfortable with it--but one angle that has stood out is any player off pga tour has shot to win ie Daly,O'meara ect and Cejka has almost 2 stroke "actual scoring ave" adv here so I'll give it a go at generous odds.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Capping this black hole of an event came down to exercising enough discipline to seek some sufficiently handsome rewards on no more than three players on the basis of something they have shown me that seems reproducible here, then throwing the whole lot of leftovers (nothing too exotic there, from Marksaeng and Wiratchant, to Cejka and Kennedy) into a pool of exotic but very small parlays, and then keeping a heads up for opportunities that might appear to invest in one of the leftovers in-running after some illumination escapes from said black hole, when hopefully not many cappers are really paying attention. In other words, the foundations that underscore (or at least seem to underscore) the more confident or more hopeful selections during the season are not yet implanted in my brain to spin out some typically delusional scenarios.

I'd rather be lucky than good as I stumble up to the gate with these choices:

Paul McGinley(35/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ 5dimes
Simon Yates(60/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ 5dimes
Sung-Man Lee(66/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

There is such a huge decrempency in schedule strength its hard to determine--you have Choi @ shcedule strength rank of 70 Cejka 87 Harrington 168 Jiminez 267 and they drop from there--been looking for info on Jean-Francois Lucquin and can't seem to locate him anywhere I search.

 

[Stanley]

DTB Lucquin has a schedule rank of 361 on the Sagarin ratings. You should be able to find him by just entering Lucquin in the seach box on the golfweek site.

Matchup plays (1pt unless stated):

Brad Kennedy to beat Greg Norman -111 @ SIA
Just don't see Norman having a good week. He hasn't played in Asia for years, let alone China, and he has a best finish of 68th in five starts this year. A good player for the sponsors, but I will be surprised if he is around at the weekend. By contrast, Kennedy has finished in the top-10 in three of his four starts in China and has been 2nd in two European Tour events already this season, one being in Malaysia.

Paul McGinley to beat Greg Norman -125 @ Centrebet [2pts]
McGinley also has a runners-up spot to his name this year and has a good record in this region, including two starts in China. He is playing for more than just appearance money this week.

Rob Rashell to beat Greg Norman -130 @ Five Dimes
Will also oppose Norman with Rashell who was an outright selection earlier in the season on the basis of his 2nd place finish in the Madeira Island Open and his top-10 in the Hong Kong Open last December. That showed that he both play in Asian conditions and compete on this Tour, which will be more than enough to be Norman.

Rob Rashell to beat Boonchu Ruangkit -111 @ SIA [2pts]
Siding with Rashell again to oppose a player who has lost his form. Ruangkit opened the season in great form, winning the Thailand Open and finishing 4th in the Johnnie Walker Classic in January. Since then, though, his best finish has been 23rd in six starts. Rashell beat him by 18 shots in Hong Kong, which is rather impressive.

Joon-Kyung Mo to beat Boonchu Ruangkit -111 @ Paddy Power [2pts]
Against a player losing form is a player definitely on the top of his game. Mo is an outright selection and deserves to be backed again in his current form. He has finished ahead of Runagkit in all three of their common events this year and should do the same again this week.

Henrik Nystrom to beat Eddie Lee -118 @ Expekt
Nystrom is a player who travels a lot. Already this season he has played on the Tour de Las Americas as well as the European Tour and he seems to be able to play well in Asia as well. In the last two Hong Kong Opens, he has finished 2nd and 15th, so I'll side with him against a player who struggles on both the Australasian and Davidoff Tours.

Henrik Nystrom to beat Stephen O'Hara -111 @ BetandWin
Just as much reason to side with Nystrom in this matchup. O'Hara has missed over half of his cuts this year and was playing in the British Masters on Sunday - he finished 58th - which is hardly ideal preparation for this week's event.

Prayad Marksaeng to beat Nobuhito Sato -143 @ Centrebet
Sato made quite an impact with his 2nd place finish in the Qatar Masters, but that has been the only high point of his season. In eight starts this year, he has missed six cuts and finished 71st on the other occasion. I'll gladly side with an outright selection who plays particularly well in these co-sanctioned events and has had three top-10 finishes in Asai already this season.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks Stan I typed in his entire name previously and drew a blank, I'll try just the last name. I have found their records vs top 10/50 ect beneficial but wish they would use 8 to 12 weeks instead of 52 as it would give much closer current outlook.
---however only use as a 2ndary factor after consuming your data

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (? unit ew @ ? odds 1st 5)

M Mamat 50/1 @ Victor Chandler
S Yates 66/1 @ SkyBet
J Sandelin 66/1 @ SkyBet
Ter-Chang Wang 150/1 @ Blue Square
Eun Yang 125/1 @ Paddy Power
Wen-Teh Lu 125/1 @ Paddy Power

Also interested in Mo and Knutzon.

Good Luck!

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 1-2; +2.50pts

Cejka 14th
Marksaeng 3rd
Mo 14th

All three in the top-15 and a profit on the week, that represents a good tournament. Pity Marksaeng couldn't hold onto the lead that he took at the start of his back nine on Sunday. He dropped four shots in his last six holes and finished four shots behind Jimenez.

Matchups - Final update: 4-4-0; +0.19pts

Kennedy/Norman WON (Norman disqualified)
McGinley/Norman WON (Norman disqualified)
Rashell/Norman LOST by 14
Rashell/Ruangkit LOST by 11
Mo/Ruangkit WON by 6
Nystrom/Lee LOST by 4
Nystrom/O'Hara LOST by 1
Marksaeng/Sato WON by 8

A profit thanks to Greg Norman's disqualification for taking a drop from the wrong place in the 3rd round. McGinley would have still been two shots of Norman without the intervention of the officials, so it was really only the Kennedy play that was overturned. Still thankful to get such a piece of good luck as my take on him missing the cut had been completely wrong!

Davidoff Tour ytd
Outrights: 5-7; +22.51pts
Matchups: 12-12; -4.66pts