BMW Asian Open

Whalers Rule

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Anthony Wall 300-1 e.w at golfing gods


5 over in the winds on Thursday, then in calm conditions over next 36 holes makes 16 birdies and no bogies, only to make a double on Saturday, then retreat in the wind on Sunday. Here is hoping for calm conditions
 

KMc10

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Hi guys, new to the forum but find it interesting and inormative and thought iId join in with my selections this week:

PAUL MCGINLEY 1 point ew 33/1 VC Bet

Has only had one bad tournament this year which was the Quatar Masters back in March. In his 5 other starts this year he hasn't finished outside the top 11! Has been an inconsistant putter in the past, whihc has let him down but this year he is ranked 1st for Putts per GIR, 3rd for putts per hole and 3rd for putts per round, showing he's made the necesary improvements to his game to claim a title. A player who seems very comfortable playing in Asia, finishing T11 in Dubai and T4 in Malaysia already ths year, as well as T5 in this tournament last year. At 33/1 he is far too big a price, and is undoubtedly the value bet of the tournament.

LIAN-WEI ZHANG 0.5 points ew @ 100/1 (Generally available)

The Asian players don't have a great record in this tournament, so perhaps a strange choice, but he has been playing well lately without ever really pushing his way up the leaderboard. However, he was instrumental in winning the Visa Dynasty Cup a few weeks ago and remained undefeated in the tournament. He turns 40 next Monday so I am sure he'd love to celebrate this fact with a challenge for the title here. This combined with a creditable T5 in this tournament last year shows to me that he is overpriced at 100/1.

Good luck all!

Kev
 

Stanley

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Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Colin Montgomerie to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, Ladbrokes, BlueSq, UKBetting and Totalbet
Backing Monty again even though he finished one shot out of the places last week. His 6th place finish was the sixth time in seven starts this season that he has finished in the top-6 (he finished 11th on the other occasion), so his 2005 form is certainly worthy of note. His form in Asia is also worth noting - eight top-6 finishes in his last ten starts in this region (13th and 16th on the other two occasions), including three wins - so even 4/1 for a top-5 place at these each-way odds looks very good value. This is a much weaker field this week and if he can avoid missing two-foot putts as he did twice last week, he should certainly be in the mix again.

Paul McGinley to win 33/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
While Monty leads the European Tour's important Stroke Average category in 2005, Mcginley also lies in the top-5 in that category, but lead the Tour in Putts per GIR. He also leads the Tour's Overall Stats category with Stenson 2nd and Monty 3rd. Statistically, these are the three best players on the Tour this year. Add in McGinley's course experience - he finished 5th last year - and his great record in Asia, which includes 2nd in his last start in China, and he is certainly value at 33/1.

Henrik Stenson to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Not to be outdone by the other selections, Stenson tops the Tour's Total Driving and Greens in Regulation categories in 2005. From tee to green, there are very few people who can compete with the Swede. He has been putting much better recently and it has netted him three top-3 finishes in his last four starts. In this form, he will certainly add to his two European Tour titles.
 

phar lap

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The Lucky Country
72 hole matchups

Barry Lane -110 vs Charl Schwartzel


Henrik Stenson -118 vs Michael Campbell


both at Sportsacumen.
 
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Stanley

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Matchup plays (1pt):

Brett Rumford to beat Simon Dyson -110 @ Ladbrokes
Dyson returns to the course on which he squandered a six-shot lead with one round to play last year. That should be a negative for any player and with only indifferent form since, the former Asian PGA Tour player may struggle here. By contrast, Rumford was very impressive last week and admitted to having worked hard on his game. Another good performance is expected this week.

Barry Lane to beat Peter Hanson -115 @ Five Dimes
Counting on Lane's excellent record in Asia in this match. He has not missed a cut in his last 12 starts in this region and although his 48th place finish last week was a below-par performance, he should do better this week. Last week was only the second time in the last five months (nine common events) that Lane has failed to finish ahead of the Swede. He really should do so this week.

Barry Lane to beat Thaworn Wiratchant -111 @ Paddy Power
Wiratchant may have won the Indonesian Open last month, but he generally does not have that impressive a record in these co-sanctioned events and last week's event was one in which the 'home' Tour players struggled. This week should be the same. Since 2002, these two have played in ten common events in Asian, including last week, and Wiratchant has finished ahead of Lane only once and that was by only two shots when Lane still finished in the top-10 in last year's China Open.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Generally don'tget involved in these events and especially @ short odds but between Stans assessment and Monty's

"I am back to where I should be. I'm leading the stroke average and I'm leading the greens in regulation and I'm in the top 10 in driving accuracy. Those were always my three categories and if I can continue to do that and hole a few putts then I'll win."

I believe I'll add a top 5 @ 4.50 (3.5/1) @ cbet
 

lostinamerica

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MATCHUPS:

Montgomerie(-122) over Jimenez (Tournament) @ 5dimes
- - Struggling to get excited here about any picks or plays after Montgomerie . . . This is the play that stood out to me when I was capping last night, but all the Euro matchups went off the board at 5dimes a few hours ago when I was wagering and posting, and now the matchups are back up. (Really just par for the course this year with all the weather delayed rounds, when matchups are scarce - or are all taken down at 5dimes at like the 6:00 a.m. CT start of play, never to reappear.) Win, lose or draw, I'm now glad I had the discipline a few hours ago to not fully stake a different matchup in lieu thereof.

GL
 

Stanley

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Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-2; -2.00pts

Montgomerie 34th
McGinley mc
Stenson dns

A complete blank on the event. Very poor indeed!

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Rumford/Dyson LOST by 1
Lane/Hanson LOST by 6
Lane/Wiratchant LOST by 5

Not very impressive.

Asian PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 2-14; -11.50pts
Matchups: 9-12; -2.88pts
 
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