Round 4 plays (4pts):
Ryan Palmer to beat Martin Kaymer +120 @ Stan James
Opposing Kaymer who may be 3rd, but doesn't have the consistency to be backed here. He did finish 7th last week, but that was from off-the-pace and he hasn't achieved any other top-50 finishes in the last two months. The last time that he was in a similar position - Open de France in July - he shot 77 in the final round to drop to 12th. Palmer has been in much better form recently and doesn't deserve these odds.
Ryan Palmer to beat Billy Horschel +100 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]
Horschel is 0-for-1 when leading after 54 holes and on that occasion - 2013 Texas Open - he surrendered a two-shot lead and finished three shots back in 3rd place. He has the form to match his high leaderboard position, but until he proves himself in this position I'll agree with the rest of the bookies and make Palmer the clear favourite in this matchup.
Bubba Watson to beat Martin Kaymer -103 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Bet365, The Greek and Carib]
Watson's form has been as patchy as Kaymer's, but the only times that he failed to finished ahead of the German in 2014 in the U.S. were the two events that Keymer won. Unless Kaymer won the event, Watson finished ahead of him, so that should point to the favourite being the American, particularly as he has a better record from this position.