Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)
Paul Casey to win 11/1 e.w. @ Boyle Sports [6 places]
In stark contrast to the PGA Tour, it appears that players returning to the European Tour after competing in the U.S. Open do so on a high. Last year, it was the Diageo Championship the week after the U.S. Open and it was won by Paul Casey who had just finished 15th at Winged Foot. Similarly, Bjorn and Monty finished 4th having been 48th and 2nd at Winged Foot, while Kenneth Ferrie finished 9th having, not only finished 6th at Winged Foot, but had held the lead with one round to play as well! Last year was clearly a triumphal return for the European Tour players as they had filled 11 of the top-25 places in the U.S. Open and after the European Tour had five players in the top-10 last week, including the winner, it should again be another such triumphal return. So, on that basis, I'm expecting Casey and Fasth to carry on exactly where they left off last week. Casey had a horrid stretch of six dropped shots in five holes on the front nine on Sunday and he would finish six shots behind Angel Cabrera, but there are so many positives for Casey to take from that week. It helps that he finished on a high with two consecutive birdies, but the enormity of his 2nd round 66 was such that all the players on the putting green stopped to applaud him as he approached the final green. Now add in the fact that he won the week after the U.S. Open last year and has a course history that reads 7th, 7th, 3rd, 3rd, mc, 13th and he really should shoot some very low scores this week around Munchen Nord-Eichenried.
Niclas Fasth to win 22/1 e.w. @ Boyle Sports [6 places]
The same applies to Fasth for whom time merely ran out on Sunday. He shot the lowest back nine of the leaders (33) and looked as though he would have made up the two-shot deficit if he only had a few more holes to play. Now he returns to a course on which he finished 4th two years ago and to a country in which he has finished in the top-4 in four of his last eight visits, including one win (2005 Deutsche Bank Players' Championship of Europe), so I certainly think that he can carry on his momentum from last week and win again on German soil.
Alejandro Canizares to win 50/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Bet365 and ToteSport
This is a selection more in keeping with the traditional philosophy of avoiding players after a major as Canizares' last event was in the Celtic Manor Wales Open two weeks ago. He finished 8th on that occasion to record his third consecutive top-20 finish. In fact, he has been so consistent this year that he ranks 3rd in Scoring Average on the Tour, so on that basis alone 50/1 should be good value. But added to this is his performance last year when he was 2nd at the cut and the fact that he has already won on this Tour despite being a member of the Tour for less than a year. That certainly points to good value at 50/1.
Paul Casey to win 11/1 e.w. @ Boyle Sports [6 places]
In stark contrast to the PGA Tour, it appears that players returning to the European Tour after competing in the U.S. Open do so on a high. Last year, it was the Diageo Championship the week after the U.S. Open and it was won by Paul Casey who had just finished 15th at Winged Foot. Similarly, Bjorn and Monty finished 4th having been 48th and 2nd at Winged Foot, while Kenneth Ferrie finished 9th having, not only finished 6th at Winged Foot, but had held the lead with one round to play as well! Last year was clearly a triumphal return for the European Tour players as they had filled 11 of the top-25 places in the U.S. Open and after the European Tour had five players in the top-10 last week, including the winner, it should again be another such triumphal return. So, on that basis, I'm expecting Casey and Fasth to carry on exactly where they left off last week. Casey had a horrid stretch of six dropped shots in five holes on the front nine on Sunday and he would finish six shots behind Angel Cabrera, but there are so many positives for Casey to take from that week. It helps that he finished on a high with two consecutive birdies, but the enormity of his 2nd round 66 was such that all the players on the putting green stopped to applaud him as he approached the final green. Now add in the fact that he won the week after the U.S. Open last year and has a course history that reads 7th, 7th, 3rd, 3rd, mc, 13th and he really should shoot some very low scores this week around Munchen Nord-Eichenried.
Niclas Fasth to win 22/1 e.w. @ Boyle Sports [6 places]
The same applies to Fasth for whom time merely ran out on Sunday. He shot the lowest back nine of the leaders (33) and looked as though he would have made up the two-shot deficit if he only had a few more holes to play. Now he returns to a course on which he finished 4th two years ago and to a country in which he has finished in the top-4 in four of his last eight visits, including one win (2005 Deutsche Bank Players' Championship of Europe), so I certainly think that he can carry on his momentum from last week and win again on German soil.
Alejandro Canizares to win 50/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Bet365 and ToteSport
This is a selection more in keeping with the traditional philosophy of avoiding players after a major as Canizares' last event was in the Celtic Manor Wales Open two weeks ago. He finished 8th on that occasion to record his third consecutive top-20 finish. In fact, he has been so consistent this year that he ranks 3rd in Scoring Average on the Tour, so on that basis alone 50/1 should be good value. But added to this is his performance last year when he was 2nd at the cut and the fact that he has already won on this Tour despite being a member of the Tour for less than a year. That certainly points to good value at 50/1.
