BMW International Open

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Robert-Jan Derksen to beat Rory McIlroy -110 @ Bet365
Making his course debut and with just two top-25 finishes in the last five months, the value should be in opposing McIlroy with Derksen who is a regular on this course and has missed only one cut in the last five months

Jose Filipe Lima to beat Gareth Paddison -125 @ Five Dimes
This is a course that sets up well for Lima as shown by his 2nd place finish last year and that, together with a tendency to play better in the first round than any other, should be enough edge over another player whose form has been poor recently

Andrew Coltart to beat David Dixon -110 @ Five Dimes
Opposing last week's European Tour winner whose breakthrough win should have an lingering effect on his performance this week. Besides, it was the first time since 2006 that Dixon has finished ahead of Coltart in a Tour event

Anders Hansen to beat Graeme McDowell -110 @ Bet365
Backing the more consistent Hansen who finished 4th last year against McDowell who has been amything but consistent this year; it is the same story with his course form: two missed cuts and three poor rounds in his third previous visit even though it included a final round 62 to finish 16th

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Bernhard Langer to beat Martin Kaymer +110 @ Unibet
Langer was not at his best from tee to green today, but would have still tied Kaymer had he shot four on the last hole. But he still shot six shots better than last year's 1st round and he still finished 2nd that time, so I'd expect a similar strong 2nd round performance again

Colin Montgomerie to beat Ross Fisher +105 @ Five Dimes
Can rarely find a good reason to back Monty these days, but given his record on this course (especially when compared to Fisher) and the fact that they both hit the same amount of fairways and greens today, I can certainly back him at plus odds in this matchup

 

[lostinamerica]

In-running:

Alexander Noren(22/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Lazy me . . . I know damn well that my record is sweet$$$ in the week after the majors (Boo Weekley alone is 100/1 and 40/1, with Hunter Mahan 66/1, and that just scratches the surface). I wasn't even that busy or distracted this week, and I venture out with 0 + 2 = 2 plays, by far the fewest of the season, when a normal week is probably 4 + 6 = 10 plays . . . Silly me . . . Now I've opted to chase on some of the leading plays I contemplated but didn't follow up on to start the week, and which didn't disappoint out of the box on Thursday.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Barry Lane to beat Joel Sjoholm -125 @ Five Dimes
It's a big step-up from American collegiate golf to the European Tour and while he may have had a very successful final year in the former, Sjoholm only just made the cut this week and when in a promising position on a Challenge Tour event last week, he faltered badly over the weekend. Lane didn't drop a shot today and a similar performance is expected tomorrow

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Thomas Levet to beat Paul Casey +108 @ Unibet
Opposing Casey whose final round scoring average in this position is extremely poor: over the last three seasons he has been inside the top-5 with one round to play and has never shot lower than 71 in the final round, averaging 74.4, including 77-76-77-78-79 in his last five situations. Levet, who has finishes of 3rd, 2nd and 9th in three of his last four starts in this event, should fare better

Charl Schwartzel to beat Martin Kaymer +100 @ Unibet [available widely]
Charl Schwartzel to beat Ross Fisher -120 @ Bet365 [also available @ Five Dimes]
In contrast to Casey, Schwartzel has been inside the top-5 at the start of the final round 11 times with his worst finish being 8th and he averages less than 70 in the final round. He may trail Kaymer by six shots, but that could easily lead to a defensive approach from the runaway leader tomorrow and that will help Schwartzel on this open course. In terms of Fisher, Schwartzel has shot the lower 4th round score in every common event this season