BMW International Open

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (4pts):

Niclas Fasth to beat Alvaro Quiros -105 @ FiveDimes
Opposing Quiros who played in the U.S. Open last week and while he missed the cut, the experience would not have been good preparation for this event. Whereas that is a mentally draining event (as is the long-haul flight from California to Germany), this is a birdie-fest on a wide-open course - a score of 22-under-par won last year. Yet, for all that this course should suit Quiros more, he has really struggled here in the past, missing the cut badly on both previous visits. By contrast, Fasth is well-rested, has finished 9th and 16th in his last two starts and has a great record on this course, winning in 2007, finishing 4th in 2005 and achieving three other top-25 finishes here.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Fisher R tb Quiros -111; Hanson tb Quiros -120]

 

[GoldenTaint]

Thanks for the picks, Stanley, much appreciated.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Stanley,

Can you please explain the unofficial plays at the bottom of your post? Do you have money on those, or just the 4 point play? Thanks in advance.

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Martin Kaymer(10/1) e.w.
Niclas Fasth(45/1) e.w.
Steve Webster(100/1) e.w.

GL

 

[JimmyTime]

Outright

Canizarez 75/1
Colsaerts 80/1
Larrazabal 250/1
Larrazabal t5 33/1

 

[Stanley]

Stanley,

Can you please explain the unofficial plays at the bottom of your post? Do you have money on those, or just the 4 point play? Thanks in advance.

I went through my plays last year and there was a much bigger ROI on my top-ranked play vs. all the others that I posted, and this was the same for all Tours.

As a result, I decided this year to post only my top play for each round at double stakes and it has made a big difference:

Across the PGA, European, Champions and LPGA Tours, I am 111-58 on posted official plays this season.

However, not everyone has the same books/matchups available, so I decided to list my 'next best' plays in descending order (up to a maximum of 10). These are 'system plays' and so would have met my various angles to become an 'official' play, but these weren't as strong as my top play and I wouldn't have looked at the matchups in as much follow-up detail. I will normally play a few of these depending on my mood, confidence, etc., but always to lower stakes than my top play.

As I said, these are listed in descending order of preference, but they are (as a whole) 176-159 on the year so far. That record should be better if it were merely the first 5 or first 3 of my listed system plays, but I haven't checked that.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Thanks for responding Stanley, you are the man!

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Round 1 play (4pts):

Niclas Fasth to beat Alvaro Quiros -105 @ FiveDimes
Opposing Quiros who played in the U.S. Open last week and while he missed the cut, the experience would not have been good preparation for this event. Whereas that is a mentally draining event (as is the long-haul flight from California to Germany), this is a birdie-fest on a wide-open course - a score of 22-under-par won last year. Yet, for all that this course should suit Quiros more, he has really struggled here in the past, missing the cut badly on both previous visits. By contrast, Fasth is well-rested, has finished 9th and 16th in his last two starts and has a great record on this course, winning in 2007, finishing 4th in 2005 and achieving three other top-25 finishes here.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Fisher R tb Quiros -111; Hanson tb Quiros -120]

Better luck tomorrow Stan. I know you'll bounce back in a big way!

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Christian Cevaer to beat Jeppe Huldahl -125 @ FiveDimes
Huldahl was impressive today and currently lies in 3rd place, one shot off the lead. But this is unfamiliar territory for the Dane who has not yet discovered a comfort level when in such contention. He has finished the 1st round in the top-10 just five times on the European Tour and he has gone on to score 76, 72, 75, 77 and 71 the following day, each time falling out of the top-20. By contrast, Cevaer, who is one shot further back, has gone on to win twice on the European Tour from this position, including against a strong field at last year's European Open. He has been a regular in this event, playing particularly well in 2007 and finished 4th in Mallorca last month; Huldahl has a best finish of 39th since the Tour returned to mainland Europe in March. As much as Huldahl played better today, I can't see him staying in the top-10 for much longer.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Echenique tb Huldahl +115; Ilonen tb Foster -109; Thornton tb Ferrie -105; Kapur tb Kulacz -130; Storm tb Horsey +105]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Colin Montgomerie to beat Sam Hutsby -130 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Hutsby rather than backing Monty. Hutsby has played in seven of the last eight weeks, has missed the cut in his last three starts and has a best finish of 44th over that period. His final round scores over that period were 75, 75, 74 and 76, so, even though he starts the final round in 40th place, there is little to suggest that he will improve on that position on Sunday. And while Monty is not the player that won here in 1999, he has been making cuts - just one missed since February - and he doesn't tend to give up in the final round - since the Tour returned to mainland Europe, he has scored 72, 72 and 71 on Sundays and over the past year he has averaged 71.0 in the final round in Europe even though he hasn't started any of those rounds in the top-10.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Cabrera-Bello tb Larrazabal -120; Waring tb Elson -118; Cabrera-Bello tb Elson +100; Whiteford tb Elson -145; Ferrie tb Thornton -105; Whiteford tb Waring +100; Cejka tb Fisher R +115; Whiteford tb Lawrie Pa +100]