BMW International Open

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (4pts):

David Drysdale to beat Raphael Jacquelin +125 @ William Hill
I don't see Drysdale as the underdog in this matchup. First of all, Jacquelin is coming off a 21st place finish in a gruelling U.S. Open so that involves a transatlantic flight from San Francisco on Monday and he had flown in the other direction just a week earlier as this will now be his 5th week in a row on Tour. Fatigue should be a significant factor for him this week. And as for Drysdale, he is well-rested having not played since the Wales Open, but he is in very good form having finished 11th in that event and 10th the previous week in the BMW PGA Championship. And as for form in this event, he has finished 4th, 11th and 43rd in the last three BMW International Opens (Jacquelin's last three in this event have been mc, 36th, 31st), and when this course was lasted used for the 2009 Mercedes-Benz Championship, Drysdale finished 8th, five shots ahead of Jacquelin.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Lynn tb Havret +100; Green tb Jacquelin +110; Wall tb Fraser -105]

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Paul Lawrie(20/1) e.w.
Henrik Stenson(28/1) e.w.
Marcel Siem(33/1) e.w.
David Drysdale(80/1) e.w.
John Daly(125/1) e.w.
- - Looks like I was looking in very much the same direction as Dave Tindall, with Lawrie the play and angle I wasn't originally looking at, and Stenson the only play of mine Dave was apparently not looking at.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Simon Dyson to beat Chris Wood -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes]
Third the last time that this course was used (2009), favouritism should really be with the better player in this matchup (Dyson is 47th in the World Rankings; Wood 150 places lower). That is the opinion taken by 5Dimes, but not Bet365. Wood did play well in the first round - his 65 sees him 3rd at the end of the round - but has been over 12 months and 24 events since he had both the first two rounds in the 60s. I expect Dyson to build on his 16th place position in the morning.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Bjorn tb Wood +110; Havret tb Fraser -110; Singh tb Willett +110]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Chris Wood to beat Danny Willett -105 @ 5Dimes [also available @ SkyBet, Bet365 and Paddy Power]
Easy to oppose the leader at the start of the final round when he has never won an event on the European Tour. He did lead the 2010 Austrian Open with one round to play, but shot 71 to finish 3rd; he has never held the lead after 36 holes, but in the one time that he led after 18 holes (2010 BMW Championship), he failed to break 70 in the rest of the tournament. That's why he has 19 top-10 finishes on the European Tour, but no wins and just one 2nd place finish. At just one shot off the pace, Wood is in prime position to profit from the pressure that Willett will face tomorrow.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Fraser tb Willett +100; Fernandez-Castano tb Jaidee -110; Fraser tb Jaidee -110; Sterne tb Siem -110]