BMW International Open
- Thread starter PaulW
- Start date
Round 1 plays (2pts):
Tommy Fleetwood to beat Maximilian Kieffer -115 @ 5Dimes
Two players in good form on the European Tour, but there is still a gulf in class between these two. Fleetwood was finishined 27th in the U.S. Open last week and ranks inside the World Top-50; Kieffer didn't qualify for last week's Major, ranks outside the top-200 in the World Rankings and finished behind Fleetwood when this course was last used two years ago. Post-U.S. Open fatigue may catch up with Fleetwood later in the week, but a good week in the Majors in the U.S. does tend to lead to strong performances in the following week from European Tour players.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat David Howell -109 @ Pinnacle
Neither played at Chambers Bay last week, so this matchup is tilted heavily in favour of the Spaniard in terms of form alone: Howell has missed the cut in each of his last three cuts and in the last two BMW International Opens; Cabrera-Bello has finished 4th, 13th and 2nd in his last three starts and finished 26th and 2nd in the last two BMW International Opens. There is enough there to warrant stronger favouritism for Cabrera-Bello.
Rikard Karlberg to beat Thomas Pieters -110 @ 5Dimes
Opposing Pieters who has missed the cut in two of his last three European Tour events and finished only 39th when dropping down to the Challenge Tour in his last event. Neither has played this course previously, but Pieters missed the cut in this event last year at Gut Larchenhof. I think that he will struggle again this week, so backing Karlberg to be dependable enough to profit from it.
Tommy Fleetwood to beat Maximilian Kieffer -115 @ 5Dimes
Two players in good form on the European Tour, but there is still a gulf in class between these two. Fleetwood was finishined 27th in the U.S. Open last week and ranks inside the World Top-50; Kieffer didn't qualify for last week's Major, ranks outside the top-200 in the World Rankings and finished behind Fleetwood when this course was last used two years ago. Post-U.S. Open fatigue may catch up with Fleetwood later in the week, but a good week in the Majors in the U.S. does tend to lead to strong performances in the following week from European Tour players.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat David Howell -109 @ Pinnacle
Neither played at Chambers Bay last week, so this matchup is tilted heavily in favour of the Spaniard in terms of form alone: Howell has missed the cut in each of his last three cuts and in the last two BMW International Opens; Cabrera-Bello has finished 4th, 13th and 2nd in his last three starts and finished 26th and 2nd in the last two BMW International Opens. There is enough there to warrant stronger favouritism for Cabrera-Bello.
Rikard Karlberg to beat Thomas Pieters -110 @ 5Dimes
Opposing Pieters who has missed the cut in two of his last three European Tour events and finished only 39th when dropping down to the Challenge Tour in his last event. Neither has played this course previously, but Pieters missed the cut in this event last year at Gut Larchenhof. I think that he will struggle again this week, so backing Karlberg to be dependable enough to profit from it.
Outrights
Outrights
ODDS TO WIN GOLF BMW INTERNATIONAL OPEN 2015 SOREN KJELDSEN +3965
ODDS TO WIN GOLF BMW INTERNATIONAL OPEN 2015 THOMAS BJORN +3425
Outrights
ODDS TO WIN GOLF BMW INTERNATIONAL OPEN 2015 SOREN KJELDSEN +3965
ODDS TO WIN GOLF BMW INTERNATIONAL OPEN 2015 THOMAS BJORN +3425
Round 2 plays (2pts):
Henrik Stenson to beat Martin Kaymer -150 @ SkyBet
Two former winners of this title, but whereas Kaymer has missed the cut in two of the last four years, Stenson has finished in the top-10 in all four years. That difference in recent form has been continued in today's round with Stenson shooting 67 and finishing the day in 5th place, while Kaymer shot 72 and is 84th. Given their recent histories on this course and the fact that Kaymer has missed five of his last seven cuts, I can't a reversal in fortunes in this matchup tomorrow.
Henrik Stenson to beat Tommy Fleetwood -175 @ Paddy Power
Given that Fleetwood has finished ahead of Stenson just once in 13 strokeplay events since last May, I also don't see Fleetwood matching Stenson for a second round as they both enter day two in 5th place. That belief is reinforced by the fact that Stenson hit his drives further, straighter and hit more greens in regulation than Fleetwood today.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat David Howell -134 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]
A repeat of the first round matchup, albeit at shorter odds. Cabrera-Bello led the field in greens in regulation today, so deserves to be on top of the leaderboard (alongside two others). This is a position that he was in twice last year (Abu Dhabi Golf Championship and BMW International Open) and on each occasion he was still on top of the leaderboard after the second round. Plus, on the previous occasion that he was leading after 18 holes (2012 Dubai Desert Classic), he went on to win that prestigious event, so I have no concerns that he will be fazed by leading the event.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Luiten tb Zanotti -171; Luiten tb Wiesberger -120]
Henrik Stenson to beat Martin Kaymer -150 @ SkyBet
Two former winners of this title, but whereas Kaymer has missed the cut in two of the last four years, Stenson has finished in the top-10 in all four years. That difference in recent form has been continued in today's round with Stenson shooting 67 and finishing the day in 5th place, while Kaymer shot 72 and is 84th. Given their recent histories on this course and the fact that Kaymer has missed five of his last seven cuts, I can't a reversal in fortunes in this matchup tomorrow.
Henrik Stenson to beat Tommy Fleetwood -175 @ Paddy Power
Given that Fleetwood has finished ahead of Stenson just once in 13 strokeplay events since last May, I also don't see Fleetwood matching Stenson for a second round as they both enter day two in 5th place. That belief is reinforced by the fact that Stenson hit his drives further, straighter and hit more greens in regulation than Fleetwood today.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat David Howell -134 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]
A repeat of the first round matchup, albeit at shorter odds. Cabrera-Bello led the field in greens in regulation today, so deserves to be on top of the leaderboard (alongside two others). This is a position that he was in twice last year (Abu Dhabi Golf Championship and BMW International Open) and on each occasion he was still on top of the leaderboard after the second round. Plus, on the previous occasion that he was leading after 18 holes (2012 Dubai Desert Classic), he went on to win that prestigious event, so I have no concerns that he will be fazed by leading the event.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Luiten tb Zanotti -171; Luiten tb Wiesberger -120]
Round 3 plays (2pts):
Peter Hanson to beat Jaokim Lagergren -156 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Big gulf between these players and this is reflected in the price, but there is still value here. On Thursday, Lagergren shot a lower 18-hole score than Hanson for just the second time in his Tour career, so the chances of it happening again are much longer than these odds suggest, particularly as he ranks 75th in greens in regulation so far this week - on that basis, he hardly warrants his place inside the top-10 on the leaderboard alongside Hanson.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat James Morrison -135 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Cabrera-Bello was backed as the 1st round leader today and he went away from the field; I'll back him for the same reasons already cited against a player in good form, but who has tended to play much better over the weekend when off the pace rather than starting it very much in contention (as this year's Abu Dhabi Golf Championship and BMW PGA Championship have shown).
Michael Hoey to beat Lasse Jensen -125 @ SkyBet [available generally]
Jensen has made the cut for only the second time in his last nine starts, so his confidence much be rather fragile even though he starts the weekend in 3rd place. Hoey is much more experienced in this position and should be a stronger favourite to continue his 4-0-0 h2h record against Jensen in 2015.
[unofficial rd3 system plays: Lowry tb Riu -175; Stenson tb Espana -200]
Peter Hanson to beat Jaokim Lagergren -156 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Big gulf between these players and this is reflected in the price, but there is still value here. On Thursday, Lagergren shot a lower 18-hole score than Hanson for just the second time in his Tour career, so the chances of it happening again are much longer than these odds suggest, particularly as he ranks 75th in greens in regulation so far this week - on that basis, he hardly warrants his place inside the top-10 on the leaderboard alongside Hanson.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat James Morrison -135 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Cabrera-Bello was backed as the 1st round leader today and he went away from the field; I'll back him for the same reasons already cited against a player in good form, but who has tended to play much better over the weekend when off the pace rather than starting it very much in contention (as this year's Abu Dhabi Golf Championship and BMW PGA Championship have shown).
Michael Hoey to beat Lasse Jensen -125 @ SkyBet [available generally]
Jensen has made the cut for only the second time in his last nine starts, so his confidence much be rather fragile even though he starts the weekend in 3rd place. Hoey is much more experienced in this position and should be a stronger favourite to continue his 4-0-0 h2h record against Jensen in 2015.
[unofficial rd3 system plays: Lowry tb Riu -175; Stenson tb Espana -200]
