BMW International

[steved]

seem to do better when I start! also, interested to see if milpalm comes up with this chap!
0.5 ew Hanell, 125/1 Tote. Was waiting for more, but everyone else has 100/1. 16/4 last two years and solid form until mc last week...web-site advises he is approaching top ten finish..make it this week Chris ! (only not 6th-10th please...)

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Thomas Bjorn to win 14/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler, Sportingbet, UKBetting or Heathorns
Would generally look to oppose the players coming back from the NEC Invitational, but only Rose is in better form - and will not touch him at single-figure odds - and history is on the Dane's side. Two years ago, he returned from finishing 10th in the NEC Invitational to win this event the following week and last year he returned from finishing 31st to lie 3rd after three rounds, only to shoot a final round 76 and fall out of contention. He comes off a top-15 finish last week and should go close.

Carl Pettersson to win 33/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Back to the traditional strategy off backing players who were playing across the pond in the previous week. Pettersson did miss the cut in the PGA Championship, but it was his first event on that Tour. He had finished in the top-5 in his last European Tour start - the Scandinavian Masters - and had looked to regain his early season form that netted him the Portuguese Open. He should improve on his top-20 finish last year.

Greg Owen to win 80/1 e.w. @ William Hill, Ladbrokes or Stan James
Did look at Owen last week, but he was just coming back from a missed cut in the PGA Championship the week before. He finished 16th to restore some confidence and is a much better player than the price quoted. He secured five top-10 finishes in seven events from April to June and finished 5th on this course two years ago. Unlikely to secure his maiden Tour win this week, but worth a punt for a place at these odds. Might be worth waiting to see what price Five Dimes quote for a top-5 place only.

 

[Monarch]

Immelman 40/1 @ VC 1 Unit ew.
Really stepped up his game over the past month. Should take some inspiration from Scotts demolition job last week. Seems quite a generous price considering the injury/form/travel of some of the bigger names at the top.

Lane 80/1 @ VC 1 Unit ew.
Great consistency all season. Knows how to go stupidly low at times which will always do u a favor at this track. I also have the feeling Bazza gets a H-i-1 this week. Do u reckon any bookie would quote me a price?

 

[milpalm]

Hanell not one of my picks this week steved.
It seems Stan and I are on the same page this week as I have gone for Pettersson at 33/1 and Owen at 80/1. Pettersson har played well in Europe this year and the wide fairways should suit him. Owen has struggled recently but showed glimpses of form last week when he finished 16th. Worth a shot a generous odds.

My final pick is Immelman at 50/1 (Centrebet). This guy will win soon and has finished in the top ten in his last two events.

 

[Stanley]

Amendment:

Greg Owen to finish in the top-five 16/1 @ Five Dimes
Had to wait longer than expected, but Five Dimes did match the 80/1 on Owen and at 1/5 odds for the top-5 only, this looks the better play on Owen.

 

[steved]

don't worry milpalm, I got the 33/1 Petterson yesterday as well...
1 ew Pettersson 33/1 (PPower)
Swedish 1-2!

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Ian Woosnam to beat Andrew Coltart -111 @ Ladbrokes [3 units]
Will oppose Coltart again. Still amazed that Evans could not beat him last week when he finished 68th. Woosie should be more dependable - his only missed cut on the European Tour this season was his season-opener in Singapore. Coltart has missed two of his last six, only made last week by a single shot and finished nine shots behind Woosie in last year's event.

Gary Evans to beat Matthew Cort -139 @ Centrebet
Expecting a let-down from Cort after the nerves of last week's finish - his 7th place finish secured his Card for next season - and a big improvement from Evans who leads 9-2 in their head-to-head matchups.

Barry Lane to beat Ian Garbutt -115 @ Five Dimes
A deserved two-week break for Lane and he should continue his run of good form. Garbutt did secure a top-10 finish last week, but this is a much stronger field/prestigious event and he does not have a good record playing against Lane. He trails 4-13 over the past twelve months.

Barry Lane to beat Andrew Oldcorn -118 @ Easybets
Had he not won the Volvo PGA Championship last year, Oldcorn would have been struggling to retain his Tour Card. He holed out from the fairway on the last hole last week to secure his biggest cheque of the year for 7th place in a minor event and it elevated him to 103rd in the Volvo Order of Merit. This will be his seventh straight event and he is worth opposing. Lane has beaten him in their last seven common events and this should be number seven.

Robert Karlsson to beat Andrew Oldcorn -111 @ Ladbrokes
Karlsson has also beaten Oldcorn in their last seven common events, finished in the top-10 in his last event and is a former winner of this event on this course.

Padraig Harrington to beat Justin Rose +100 @ Victor Chandler
Basically expecting a let-down from Rose this week. His high finishes in the last two weeks would have been more draining than for Harrington and a slow start to the week is expected. So long as Harrington is fit enough to play, he should contend this week. He has been runner-up twice in the last three years and will take the underdog odds in this matchup.

Greg Owen to beat Trevor Immelman -110 @ Intertops
The South African is in great form, but has a dire record on this course. Owen has beaten him on both his previous visits and looks the more likely to secure a top-20 finish than the boom-or-bust Immelman.

Greg Owen to beat Raymond Russell -110 @ Surrey
Opposing Russell for basically the same reasons as Cort - expecting a let-down the week after he secured his Card. He was in serious trouble until he finished 2nd last week - his payout was almost double his earnings for the entire season. He did finish 4th last year, but that was the event that secured his playing privileges for another year. He finished 71st in his next event and expect a similar result this week.

Richard Green to beat Raymond Russell -120 @ Intertops
Top-20 in his last three events, having been first-round leader, and with just two missed cuts in his last 13 starts, Green looks a good prospect for matchup bets most weeks. Against Russell, he should have little trouble.

 

[Monarch]

72-Hole Matchups:

72-Hole Matchups:

Immelman v Coltart 7/10 @ B&W 4.5 Units.
Immelmans confidence is soaring right now and should be expected to post a high finish once again this week. I just feel Coltart is incapable of shooting anywhere near the scores required to do well at this course.

C Pettersson v Daly 7/10 @ B&W 3 Units.
This is a totally different Daly to last yr. Lost his game some months ago and still looks to be out of sorts. Pettersson is rightfully one of the favourites this week and should have a good run.

Bjornstad v Oldcorn 9/10 @ B&W 3 Units.
Normally always oppose Bjornstad where possible but 3/7 finishes makes him a strong choice over a very average player.

Karlsson v Oldcorn 9/10 @ Ladbrokes 3 Units.
Stole off Stanley.

Garbutt v Tinning 9/10 @ B&W 2 Units.

Lane v Cejka 9/10 @ B&W 2 Units.
Consistency vs more often than not useless.

Rose v Harrington 11/10 @ Hills 2 Units.
11/7 last 2 yrs for Rose. Twice the player now than he was then. Harrington states on his site that he is still not 100%. I can't imagine the long journey plus 2 weeks playing through the pain barrier has done him any good.

 

[Monarch]

Crazy Madness 4-fold:

Kerr 33/1 - Irwin 5/1 - Lowery 16/1 - Immelman 33/1 @ Hills 1/2 Unit ew.

What do u think Bettingmad?

 

[Ian]

Monarch
Apologies for the Daly/Pett match bet being cut from 9/10

 

[Monarch]

Ian, they only let me have ?50 on that matchup. They said the limit or something had been exceeded. What have you done to them .

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS for 0.20 e.w.:

Thomas Bjorn(15/1) @ 5dimes
At substantially longer odds than Harrington, I'll look his way for someone possibly exerting some Ryder Cup form and leadership. But I'll be leery that last year's closing 76 while in the mix reflects the fatigue and travel influences that can surface again this week.

Carl Pettersson(33/1) @ 5dimes AND (22/1) @ Bet365
About half the wager early at 5dimes before the odds changed to 20/1, then topped off just now at Bet365. This seems a potential spot for displaying the charge in his game. After becoming suddenly and viciously wild down the stretch on the memorably canted fairways in The Scandinavian Open, and after a slide in accuracy to a lesser extent sealed his fate during the Saturday finish and on Sunday in The Open Championship, I was encouraged to read about the more generous driving opportunities here, and then see a little of the course to confirm that assessment.

Thomas Levet(45/1) @ 5dimes
Perhaps a little rebound instead of a tailspin. You need to make some putts to go as low as it looks like will be required, but he must of had
it going some when he was here last year.

The statistical and television evidence I've seen says Trevor Immelman(40/1) is focused and may be ready to pop. But perhaps this week first brings some resolve building frustrations, as Immelman's record here has me fading him in favor of Bjorn.

GL

 

[bettingmad]

Monarch,

You have to speculate to accumulate.... but let's not get too carried away.... doubles are hard enough, trebles near impossible... but fourfolds? For a small stake it's a laugh but surely the aim is just for the place return... you must well bust any limits with 4 winners.

Good luck I'll be cheering them on for you!

 

[lostinamerica]

Ian Poulter(8/1) for 0.50*e.w.@ Bet365 (includes some 14/1 to win @ 5dimes)

Since The International, I was supposed to be on the lookout for something in a similar vein to the El Paso tale of J.P. Hayes winning and prodding Rich Beem to follow suit. I missed it.

I missed it when Beemer himself took it to a ridiculous new level in winning the PGA. I just missed a table scrap of it when I tried Retief Goosen(22/1) in the Buick Open off Ernie Els' British Open championship, (it wasn't just a John Deere Classic his fellow South African won), but +3 on the last two holes dropped Retief from T2nd to T14th. I missed it again on Thursday.

Best buddy Justin Rose travels to the New World and returns with stories of fabled links, American excess, appreciative fans and $5 million purses. The stories are vivid because Ian had a taste of it himself in 2001. Next up is a generous course that suits Poulter's preferred style of attacking play and no conscience putting. I couldn't see it at 60/1.

I saw Ian play one shot this morning, and what I saw was tunnel vision on the flag with a wedge to his 18th hole after a lay-up, and any look of satisfaction crossing his face only after the ball stopped for a kick-in birdie. I then stayed tuned just long enough to hear the sobering news that Justin's father has just had a setback in his battle with leukemia. Let's not forget that Ian has a beaming baby daughter to bring balance.

For those preferring a more traditional analysis, his record ain't half bad after going low in round one.

That's the picture that's been in my mind all day long. I expect Ian to contend for the championship on Sunday.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Woosnam/Coltart LOST by 7
Evans/Cort WON by 5
Lane/Garbutt Leads by 2
Lane/Oldcorn WON by 6
Karlsson/Oldcorn WON by 6
Harrington/Rose Trails by 3
Owen/Immelman All Square
Owen/Russell WON by 4
Green/Russell WON by 2

Bjorn 4th
Pettersson 55th
Owen 29th

Very satisfactory position at the cut with six matchups decided and five winners. Losing to Coltart again, and in the double-play, is frustrating as Woosie has not been missing cuts until this week. Bjorn lies just one shot behind the leaders and should reap some reward from the outrights.

 

[Monarch]

Bettingmad, these crazy 4-folds are amazing. Going into the weeked I have Irwin 1st - Lowery 4th - Kerr 4th - Immelman 29th (with a harsh 2 shot penalty) . Unlikely I'll get much returns but for the dam hell of it, it beats the lottery .

 

[bettingmad]

Monarch,
Just checked your positions before realising you had posted them yourself. Didn't know about the 2 shot penalty... he would be 17th without that. Hopefully it will fire him up to shoot really low today.
I didn't fancy him that much so just had a ?10 ew treble on the other 3...

 

[bettingmad]

Monarch,
Nice 65 from Immelman to lie 8th... would now be placed but for the penalty. Hope he is still fired up for you tomorrow.
Was only joking about having a treble.... I have yet to cross a bookmakers palm with any golf silver this week.

 

[Monarch]

Nice -7 for last 8 holes today gives him a place chance. Still a little pissed at that 2 shot pen. for oscillating ball on green. Going in only 3 back would have given him a real chance. Who knows though, stranger things have happend .

 

[Monarch]

Final Summary:

Final Summary:

Immelman 10th
Lane 17th

-5 Units for week
Outrights ytd: +27.87 Units

Matchups for week: (4-3) +3.35 Units
Matchups Ytd: (32-23-1) +34.37 Units

Total P/L YTD: +62.24 Units.

Good job Stanley and lostinAmerica.