BMW Masters

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Martin Kaymer to beat Brendan Grace +100 @ Bet365
Grace has won his last two events and, to be honest, I was expecting bigger odds on Kaymer in this matchup, but I still think that there is value here. He won his last start in China (2011 HSBC Champions) and has been showing better form recently - each of his 1st round scores in the last two months have been 70 or better. But there is also the Ryder Cup angle with the whole team present this week except for Garcia. Given that his putt on the last green 'won' the Ryder Cup for Europe, this will be a special week for him and any normal tournament concerns over his fall from World #1 will be secondary this week.

Y.E. Yang to beat Thorbjorn Olesen +100 @ 5Dimes
Olesen's only previous start in China was in the China Open in April: he finished 52nd. By contrast, Yang is a two-time winner in China - 2006 HSBC Champions & 2010 China Open - plus he finished 2nd (playoff loss) in the China Masters two weeks ago. Alongside a 3rd place fininsh in the Korea Open last week, Yang is clearly the player in better form and far more accustomed to the course in this region.

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Henrik Stenson(55/1) e.w.
Michael Campbell(125/1) e.w.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Charl Schwartzel to beat George Coetzee -105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ BetVictor]
Schwartzel has had a difficult year, partly because he tore his intercostal muscle in the middle of the season, but there have been signs that he has been playing better - he defeated Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy in consecutive days in Turkey two weeks ago and he currently lies 8th after 36 holes alonside Coetzee. But even though he has not quite been at his best recently, he has still finished behind Coetzee just once in their last seven common events. With his form improving, I expect Schwartzel to win this matchup.

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Peter Hanson to beat George Coetzee -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ BetVictor]
Hanson started the 3rd round in the lead, but showed good composure when he was caught, first by McIlroy on the front nine and then by Colsaerts on the back nine. On both occasions, Hanson responded with a birdie to pull away again and he starts the final round with a one-shot lead. This will be the sixth time that he has started the final round of a European Tour event in the lead after 54 holes - he has won three of five so far, finishing 2nd and 3rd on the other two occasions, so that also points to good play under pressure. Coetzee is three shots back in 3rd place, but in the three times that he has started the final round in the top-5 this season, he has shot 75-69-76 to finish 14th-4th-17th, so it is not certain that he will push on a good third round.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Lowry tb Noren -105; Lowry tb Coetzee -120]