BMW Masters

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (2pts):

Chris Kirk to beat Victor Dubuisson -110 @ Paddy Power
Two form players with top-5 finishes last week, but Dubuisson struggled on this course last year to finish 44th in this limited-field event. Kirk has played in the CIMB Classic in each of the last three years and finished in the top-25 every time, so he does travel well outside the U.S. and as a two-time winner this year on the PGA Tour, I think his play is at a higher level than the Frenchman's.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Kirk tb Luiten -110; Rose tb Dubuisson -138; Palmer tb Lowry -115; Donaldson tb Luiten -105]

 

[lostinamerica]

^ ^ ^ I'm not sure one way or the other about Palmer vs. Lowry, but otherwise they all look like solid plays, so of course Dubuisson and Luiten will manage to surprise. Hopefully, not. ^ ^ ^

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Thorbjorn Olesen(33/1) e.w.
Francesco Molinari(33/1) e.w.
George Coetzee(35/1) e.w.
Pablo Larrazabal(50/1) e.w.

GL

 

[Stanley]

^ ^ ^ I'm not sure one way or the other about Palmer vs. Lowry, but otherwise they all look like solid plays, so of course Dubuisson and Luiten will manage to surprise. Hopefully, not. ^ ^ ^

GL

And they did manage to surprise :facepalm:

Round 2 play (2pts):

Chris Kirk to beat Ryan Palmer +100 @ Bet365
Looking for Kirk to rebound after a poor opening round. He is too good a player to remain outside the top-50 and he has played well in Asia previously so wasn't a matter of a failure to adjust to a different climate. Finally, he has finished ahead of Palmer in five of seven common events since June so I still think that his quality will show through before the end of this tournament.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: McDowell tb Dubuisson +110; Kirk tb McDowell +125]

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Romain Wattel to beat Mikko Ilonen -111 @ Bet365

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Ramsay tb Hoey -110; Levy tb Colsaerts +110]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Richard Bland to beat Thomas Aiken -105 @ 5Dimes
Surprised to see Bland down in 42nd place as he has secured top-25 finishes in each of the last four weeks. In terms of this matchup, he has been in much better form than the South African for much more than the last four weeks: they have played in eight common events since June, with seven head-to-head wins for Bland and one tie.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: McDowell tb Luiten -105; Sterne tb Molinari E +100; Foster tb Jimenez -105]