BMW PGA Championship

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Ernie Els to win 10/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and William Hill
Els was avoided last year as the distractions of being consultant to the course changes were clearly going to have an impact on his performance. One year from those course changes and he should be almost able to compete this week as if it were a normal event. That can only aid his chances and given his six victories around this course in the HSBC World Matchplay event and his four top-4 finishes here in his last eight visits, he really should go well this week. And while he has been off the pace in his last two PGA Tour events, it is worth recalling just how well he competes in European Tour events: his last seven finishes on this Tour have been 5th, 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 5th and 3rd. He really should earn a place finish at least.

Richard Green to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ Expekt
A place finish is the height of our aspirations with Green. He has managed two 4th place finishes in four European Tour starts this year, but given his performance when leading the Qatar Masters in January it is easy to see why it is a deacde since his European Tour victory in the Dubai Desert Classic. But last week's 4th place finish in the Irish Open was his first event since his annual early season layoff and such a strong performance when so Tour rusty harbours well for this week. He did, after all, finish 5th here in 2000 and has top-20 finishes in two of the last three years, so if the weather is fine, he may secure another top-5 finish.

Andres Romero to win 80/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and Bet365
This is a tough event to win on your course debut, but he had been making his course debuts this year at Doha, the Centro Nacional de Golf and Adare Manor, and managed to finish 7th, 6th and 4th respectively. He has shown that his purple patch in July last year was no fluke and is certainly capable of maintaining the success that Argentineans have had in this event.

 

[abc]

First Euro Bet of the year..
Paul Casey -140 over Justin Rose 72 holes going pretty heavy on this one.

If you have to ask why then you probably shouldn't be betting on golf.

 

[abc]

Dredge +110 over Westwood

Anyone got a site that has course averages for these guys here?? :shrug:

 

[joeseppy]

http://www.golfobserver.com/golfstats/erpn.php

 

[phar.lap]

First Euro Bet of the year..
Paul Casey -140 over Justin Rose 72 holes going pretty heavy on this one.

If you have to ask why then you probably shouldn't be betting on golf.

Where did you get that price champ? I can get
-115 on Casey here....gotta be an arb there somewhere.

 

[abc]

I think Im getting screwed. I got it at 5 dimes :nono: I wanted to bet against Darren Clarke, hopin he wd'd but I have a feeling hes healthy by now

 

[lostinamerica]

I posted last year about what a difference it made to the bottom line to have real price options because of a nice selection of British books taking American accounts, and how I enjoyed anticipating the lines dropping on Monday and having an early snack. Sad and funny how this year I'm off to work about 18 hours before the start of this week's events and in a now predictable fashion, TheGreek has finally priced up about 50 of the top golfers (44 and 54, to be precise) in the two main events about 12 hours after the tee times came out, while it will still be hours and hours before I HOPEFULLY get a crack at the rest of the fields when 5dimes favors me with a Top 5 option that is about 1/6 their Win price. While I will confess that a generous soul has been providing me with gracious and much appreciated assistance in getting in a wager if I can't otherwise get on (i.e. Champions Tour, "in running" on a Friday night, etc.), I will be very selective in calling in that favor in order to avoid being a nuisance. All in all, it really sucks, and yet I'm extremely nervous about it getting much, much worse.

Okay . . . More or less accurate to say I'm not seeing the storyline in 2007 being how one of the "now and then" visitors popped in among the assembled peers and stalwarts and carted away the biggest prize of the season without encountering much spirited resistance . . . A rich opportunity spurring a consumate professional like Harrington has to be causing some nervousness at the insurance firm that has to pay the L1 million for an Irish/Wentworth double?


Outrights:

I'll put up my plays - actual as well as still merely hopeful - and add some exposition if the odd inspiration strikes.

Carlos Rodiles(150/1) e.w.
- - I've been tracking Carlos Rodiles to the 72nd green in Ireland with an eye on Wentworth, never realizing he was still earning his way into the field. His time looks to be arriving as surely as springtime in Barcelona.

Nick Dougherty(80/1) e.w.
- - Still a precocious youth, and yet it seems like forever that I've had him pegged for shotmaking glory at Wentworth. "There's a divinity that shapes our ends, rough-hew them how we will."

Andres Romero(66/1) e.w.
- - An Argentine delight, appears to be much more process oriented than the familiar image of a Latin swashbuckler. Early indications that he sustains his best form in the manner of a Paul Casey, looks capable of surpassing the feats of lesser lights getting it done this year, but was definitely hoping for a bigger price and a smaller bandwagon.

Paul Casey(25/1) e.w.
- -

Markus Brier(100/1) e.w.
- - Stephen Dodd has nothing on this popular player when it comes to a late bloom. A brilliant effort on the poor fit that is the Palmer course in Milan signaled the Tour's Golfer of the Month for April has serious designs for the campaign into May and beyond as well.

Raphael Jacquelin(40/1) e.w.
- -


GL

 

[phar.lap]

72 holes

Els -111 over VJ
At IAS

 

[abc]

;142loser: Good Idea fading Rose

 

[abc]

;142loser: Good Idea fading Rose

The dark blue 9 on caseys scorecard.. should finish this match up :mj02:

 

[abc]

Paul Casey

SURREY, ENGLAND

Q. Appears to be an incredibly good back nine after a small glitch, shall we say, at No. 12, three birdies to follow. Helped the card, didn't it?
PAUL CASEY: Yeah, a little bit rusty because I didn't play last week. But 17 pretty good holes.
And that was -- I mean, it wasn't a good hole, simple as that. I mean, how do you make nine. Obvious answer would be you lipout for 8.

Q. I think you knocked it well left.
PAUL CASEY: No. I knocked it well right and tried to play a punch out of the trees and caught it. It wasn't a good lie. But I caught it slightly poorly and it clipped the tree high and dropped into the ditch. And from there, it was in a pretty difficult position because where I had to drop it was a shocking lie.
So the error was in the tee shot and the poor second shot, simple as that.

Q. In terms of regrouping to make three birdies, you've given yourself --
PAUL CASEY: I felt good going out there today and I wanted to shoot something in the 60s, so I'm still -- I'm happy the way I fought back. But disappointed with shooting 1-over, even though there was a big number on the card.

Q. Tee-to-green I take it your game was pretty sharp.
PAUL CASEY: Tee-to-green, it was very sharp. And even with that one particular hole, I could have shot in the 60s no problem out there, even with that one.
So you know, the greens are always difficult in the afternoon at Wentworth, especially in the spring. They are definitely smoother in the autumn. It's one of those things. We've got to look forward to having good greens in the morning tomorrow and take advantage of that and try to get myself back in it tournament. I'm not out of it right now.

Q. You could have played yourself right out of it if you had not come back from that nine.
PAUL CASEY: Yeah, but it's 72 holes, and that was only one.

Q. Can you remember the last time you had a 9 on your car?
PAUL CASEY: I tried to erase it actually.

 

[abc]

Casey shoots a pretty nice round to make the cut and at least give me a shimmer of hope. Its a shame he keeps on screwin up on the 5 pars.. Also it would have been nice if rose didnt hat trick the final few holes.

 

[lostinamerica]

In-running:

Jyoti Randhawa(80/1) (1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.

GL

 

[abc]

Dredge misses the cut by 1 :com: This is why i dont bet euros or seniors GEEZ. Need ALL of my pga plays to come through or else it will be a difficult week.

 

[lostinamerica]

Saturday:

Fisher(+100) over Broadhurst

GL