BMW PGA Championship

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Since landing Ogilvy at The 2006 U.S. Open, this championship took over as the big event in which, vis-a-vis my expectations and passions, I am most disappointed with my wagering results (and just spirited efforts) over the years.

Outrights:

Angel Cabrera(25/1) e.w.

- - (Insert something HERE that's succinct and rather obvious.)

Nick Dougherty(55/1) e.w.
- - My post from this time last year:
Nick Dougherty(80/1) e.w.
- - Still a precocious youth, and yet it seems like forever that I've had him pegged for shotmaking glory at Wentworth. "There's a divinity that shapes our ends, rough-hew them how we will."

I'll have a full slate and then some once again this year, and I'll end up somewhere.


GL
 

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Adding . . .


Outrights:

Paul McGinley(66/1) e.w.
- - Still debating the likes of Stenson, Karlsson and Romero at much shorter prices. This play boiled down to experience trumping the inexperience of McIlroy around the Burma Road . . . FWIW, my research did lead me to an article with my favorite quote in weeks, albeit from a few years ago: "McGinley's daunting quest of a fourth successive Ryder Cup appearance has been very much in evidence at Adare Manor, though the greens have not been especially kind to him. It reminded me of an exasperated comment of a few years ago, when he said: "It's not like I'm hitting bad putts. I'm hitting good putts but there's a goalkeeper in there and he's playing great.""

Peter Lawrie(80/1) e.w.
- - I've already been rewarded for keeping the faith and knowing something about his game . . . I'll need some convincing of the likelihood of his becoming a fairly prolific winner over the long term, but he's playing so well, I need no convincing that 2008 will be one of the best seasons of his career.

Anthony Wall(150/1) e.w.
- - "Cue Phillip Archer", feels like it should be the extent of my commentary every time I pull the trigger on Wall . . . Not this time.

Michael Campbell(200/1) e.w.
- - Forsaking calls on Rodiles or Sandelin as shock winners, instead believing the proven Kiwi is just a touch of inspiration and good fortune from moving rapidly (even if only momentarily) in the right direction.

And the late additions . . .

Henrik Stenson(18/1) e.w.
- - That 3 wood has been on a tear all season.

Graeme McDowell(80/1) e.w.
- - Massive this and that, like a major, has me believing he's being overlooked.


FWIW, I should have played an e.w. trixie on Cabrera(25/1), Perry(22/1) and Price(20/1), but I haven't.


Matchups:

Hedblom(-135) over McGrane (Tournament)
Wall(-130) over Brier (Tournament)
Cabrera(+141) over Rose/Olazabal (Thursday)


GL
 
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Stanley

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Round 3 play (2pt):

Alexander Noren to beat Johan Edfors -105 @ Five Dimes
Noren has shot a lower 3rd round score than Edfors in five of their last six common events. With Edfors having missed the cut in all three previous attempts and only making the cut by a single shot this week, I can't see him turning around his fortunes around this course tomorrow
 

Stanley

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Round 4 play (2pts):

Gregory Bourdy to beat Marcus Fraser -105 @ Five Dimes
Bourdy has shot a higher final round score than Fraser just once since the start of 2007, so I'll back the winner of last month's Estoril Open de Portugal to prevail on a Sunday again
 

Stanley

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Adding round 4 plays (2pts):

Martin Kaymer to beat Paul Casey -120 @ Bet365
For such a good player, it is surprising that Casey ranks last in 4th round scoring in Europe over the last 12 months. Today's wet weather tends not help his game, unlike his German opponent

Paul McGinley to beat Oliver Wilson -105 @ Pinnacle
Expecting McGinley to bounce back today. You have to go back to July last year for the last time that Wilson beat him in the 4th round and the last time that Wilson was 2nd with one round to play (2008 China Open), he shot 79 in the final round
 
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