BMW
- Thread starter cole
- Start date
Patrick Reed to win 288-1
This guy's odds are moving all over the place. I've seen 300's to 125's. A new course for everyone this year, par 71. Reed is a recent winner and has a better than decent year going, not to mention, he is the only player this week to have played this layout in competition. Amateur he was, still better than zip.
Luke Donald is a member here, so there's that.
This guy's odds are moving all over the place. I've seen 300's to 125's. A new course for everyone this year, par 71. Reed is a recent winner and has a better than decent year going, not to mention, he is the only player this week to have played this layout in competition. Amateur he was, still better than zip.
Luke Donald is a member here, so there's that.
Outrights
ODDS TO WIN 2013 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP BRANDT SNEDEKER +4650
ODDS TO WIN 2013 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP RORY SABBATINI +10500
ODDS TO WIN 2013 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP JUSTIN ROSE +1900
ODDS TO WIN 2013 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP STEVE STRICKER +1825
ODDS TO WIN 2013 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP JASON DAY +3050
ODDS TO WIN 2013 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP JORDAN SPIETH +3050
ODDS TO WIN 2013 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP BRANDT SNEDEKER +4650
ODDS TO WIN 2013 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP RORY SABBATINI +10500
ODDS TO WIN 2013 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP JUSTIN ROSE +1900
ODDS TO WIN 2013 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP STEVE STRICKER +1825
ODDS TO WIN 2013 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP JASON DAY +3050
ODDS TO WIN 2013 BMW CHAMPIONSHIP JORDAN SPIETH +3050
72 holes
Kirk over Huh -120
Reed over Points -130
Kirk was not on my radar at the start of this season. Now, he has his own screen.
Kirk over Huh -120
Reed over Points -130
Kirk was not on my radar at the start of this season. Now, he has his own screen.
Round 1 play (4pts):
Scott Piercy to beat Jonas Blixt +100 @ 5Dimes
A new course but one which should suit Piercy more - it is more generous off the tee than Cog Hill which was previously used for this event, so it should favour the big-hitting American. Blixt is also rather wide off the tee, but without Piercy's length. In fact, ranked 176th for Total Driving and 174th for Greens in Regulation, it is rather surprising that he is even in the Playoffs. It is clear that his win at the Greenbrier Classic and 4th place finish in the PGA Championship changed his season. Piercy has finished ahead of Blixt in both of the Playoff events so far, has previous Playoff experience and is just outside the top-30 on the FedEx Cup Playoff Points list so he has a real chance of making a repeat appearance in the Tour Championship.
Scott Piercy to beat Jonas Blixt +100 @ 5Dimes
A new course but one which should suit Piercy more - it is more generous off the tee than Cog Hill which was previously used for this event, so it should favour the big-hitting American. Blixt is also rather wide off the tee, but without Piercy's length. In fact, ranked 176th for Total Driving and 174th for Greens in Regulation, it is rather surprising that he is even in the Playoffs. It is clear that his win at the Greenbrier Classic and 4th place finish in the PGA Championship changed his season. Piercy has finished ahead of Blixt in both of the Playoff events so far, has previous Playoff experience and is just outside the top-30 on the FedEx Cup Playoff Points list so he has a real chance of making a repeat appearance in the Tour Championship.
My focus has abruptly switched to football over the last two weeks, so some adjustments have been in order.
First, in building my selections and pulling the trigger, I need to rely more heavily on my impressions from the season to date rather than recent tracking or digging up of new ANGLES and INFORMATION.
Second, a few shortcuts have been in order, which include leaning a bit more on plays from fellow cappers when I can latch on to some rationale or theory or hunch for doing so.
Third, I don't want to be reckless and give away most of the profits from an excellent season. On the other hand, just a couple more winning weeks would be tasty, and one big score would likely turn an excellent season into a great one. So the formula going forward (and for the prior two weeks for that matter) just has to be trying to score while exercising some restraint in my number of plays, but that strategy already has me feeling mildly frustrated this morning since it was the deciding factor at KLM in not making a play on David Howell(-5), and weighed heavily in not making plays on Soren Kjeldsen(-2) and Tom Lewis(-3), but it's early days.
Outrights:
Steve Stricker(20/1) e.w.
- - Early in the week I told a friend in a "draft" competion (odds don't matter) that Stricker would be my first choice ahead of Stenson, Woods, et al., but threafter I didn't like hearing Stricker has been working on the range with some heavier shafts in his irons, and he's just debating whether to make the switch this week, or next week, or before or after the Presidents Cup, but the change is coming.
Brendon de Jonge(125/1) e.w.
Kevin Streelman(125/1) e.w.
- - The two players I latched onto among the big priced outsiders . . . The ANGLE of a big bounce in de Jonge's step coming from a captain's selection to an imminent international team competition has paid off before . . . And with hints of a second wind in Streelman's breakout season, the local dude seems dangerous if he can just get untracked, and in that regard it helps that I can feel good about his comfortable pairing with Haas and Mahan.
Ian Poulter(50/1) e.w.
- - Operating under someone else's theory that current form merits additional weight when it starts getting to the end of the season, Poulter gets the nod among those options on the further ANGLE of who needs to step up somewhere to avoid a truly disappointing season, and the Chicago ANGLE is also there.
Rickie Fowler(66/1) e.w.
- - If it plays linksy then it suits his game, he's in need of a big moment every bit as much as Poulter, and at 36th in the standings he gets my nod as the strongest candidate to move up to the Tour Championship.
Dustin Johnson(33/1) e.w.
- - Gets my final selection ahead of Furyk and Spieth . . . Breezy and linksy would be good; can he finish off the season with some of what he started it with?
GL
First, in building my selections and pulling the trigger, I need to rely more heavily on my impressions from the season to date rather than recent tracking or digging up of new ANGLES and INFORMATION.
Second, a few shortcuts have been in order, which include leaning a bit more on plays from fellow cappers when I can latch on to some rationale or theory or hunch for doing so.
Third, I don't want to be reckless and give away most of the profits from an excellent season. On the other hand, just a couple more winning weeks would be tasty, and one big score would likely turn an excellent season into a great one. So the formula going forward (and for the prior two weeks for that matter) just has to be trying to score while exercising some restraint in my number of plays, but that strategy already has me feeling mildly frustrated this morning since it was the deciding factor at KLM in not making a play on David Howell(-5), and weighed heavily in not making plays on Soren Kjeldsen(-2) and Tom Lewis(-3), but it's early days.
Outrights:
Steve Stricker(20/1) e.w.
- - Early in the week I told a friend in a "draft" competion (odds don't matter) that Stricker would be my first choice ahead of Stenson, Woods, et al., but threafter I didn't like hearing Stricker has been working on the range with some heavier shafts in his irons, and he's just debating whether to make the switch this week, or next week, or before or after the Presidents Cup, but the change is coming.
Brendon de Jonge(125/1) e.w.
Kevin Streelman(125/1) e.w.
- - The two players I latched onto among the big priced outsiders . . . The ANGLE of a big bounce in de Jonge's step coming from a captain's selection to an imminent international team competition has paid off before . . . And with hints of a second wind in Streelman's breakout season, the local dude seems dangerous if he can just get untracked, and in that regard it helps that I can feel good about his comfortable pairing with Haas and Mahan.
Ian Poulter(50/1) e.w.
- - Operating under someone else's theory that current form merits additional weight when it starts getting to the end of the season, Poulter gets the nod among those options on the further ANGLE of who needs to step up somewhere to avoid a truly disappointing season, and the Chicago ANGLE is also there.
Rickie Fowler(66/1) e.w.
- - If it plays linksy then it suits his game, he's in need of a big moment every bit as much as Poulter, and at 36th in the standings he gets my nod as the strongest candidate to move up to the Tour Championship.
Dustin Johnson(33/1) e.w.
- - Gets my final selection ahead of Furyk and Spieth . . . Breezy and linksy would be good; can he finish off the season with some of what he started it with?
GL
Last edited:
- Feb 26, 2001
- 13,593
- 164
- 63
Round 2 plays (4pts):
Graeme McDowell to beat Patrick Reed -135 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James, The Greek and Carib]
Brendon De Jonge to beat Jonas Blixt -130 @ 5Dimes
Charles Howell to beat Angel Cabrera -125 @ 5Dimes
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Huh tb Stroud -125; Fowler tb Watney +115]
Graeme McDowell to beat Patrick Reed -135 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James, The Greek and Carib]
Brendon De Jonge to beat Jonas Blixt -130 @ 5Dimes
Charles Howell to beat Angel Cabrera -125 @ 5Dimes
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Huh tb Stroud -125; Fowler tb Watney +115]
- Feb 26, 2001
- 13,593
- 164
- 63
Round 3 Match Ups
J SPIETH (RND 3) -115 (Z JOHNSON (RND 3) vrs J SPIETH (RND 3))
B SNEDEKER (RND 3) -130 (B SNEDEKER (RND 3) vrs J FURYK (RND 3))
J SPIETH (RND 3) -115 (Z JOHNSON (RND 3) vrs J SPIETH (RND 3))
B SNEDEKER (RND 3) -130 (B SNEDEKER (RND 3) vrs J FURYK (RND 3))
Round 3 plays (2pts):
Steve Stricker to beat Roberto Castro -150 @ Bet365 [available generally]
Backing Stricker from yet another top-10 position. He hasn't won yet this season on his reduced schedule, but he has become extremely consistent and is very good from this position: he has been inside the top-10 on ten occasions since last season and finished the 3rd round in a lower position just once. For comparison, Castro has finished lower down the leaderboard after rd3 from the same position in four of six occasions. That is the difference between a player in the top-10 of the World Rankings and one ranked 82nd.
Steve Stricker to beat Jordan Spieth -125 @ Bet365
Spieth has had a remarkable rookie season, culminating in a place on the Presidents Cup team. But he does not yet have the consistency of Stricker who has finished ahead of him in every common event apart from the John Deere Classic which he won, but Stricker was still just behind him within the top-10. From this position, I'll back Stricker rather than Spieth who has shot 70 or higher in five of the six times he has started the 3rd round in the top-10, including the last Playoff event when he was in a very similar position after 36 holes, but then shot 73 in rd3 to drop from 6th to 29th.
Matt Kuchar to beat Boo Weekley -138 @ Stan James [also available @ Bet365]
A basement battle here and that means a nervous weekend for Weekley who is currently projected to be 28th in the FedEx Cup Playoff Rankings and only the top-30 progress to the Tour Championship. He hasn't played particularly well since his win at Colonial in May - just one top-25 finish in the ten events since that win - and has struggled in all aspects of his game this week. Kuchar is currently 4th in the FedEx Cup Playoff Ranking and is only much more consistent - he has a 9-3-1 h2h record against Weekley this season - but should easily beat a player ranked 155th in 'Round 3 Scoring Average' many more times than these odds suggest.
[unofficial rd3 system plays: Furyk tb Snedeker +110; McIlroy tb Hoffman -120]
Steve Stricker to beat Roberto Castro -150 @ Bet365 [available generally]
Backing Stricker from yet another top-10 position. He hasn't won yet this season on his reduced schedule, but he has become extremely consistent and is very good from this position: he has been inside the top-10 on ten occasions since last season and finished the 3rd round in a lower position just once. For comparison, Castro has finished lower down the leaderboard after rd3 from the same position in four of six occasions. That is the difference between a player in the top-10 of the World Rankings and one ranked 82nd.
Steve Stricker to beat Jordan Spieth -125 @ Bet365
Spieth has had a remarkable rookie season, culminating in a place on the Presidents Cup team. But he does not yet have the consistency of Stricker who has finished ahead of him in every common event apart from the John Deere Classic which he won, but Stricker was still just behind him within the top-10. From this position, I'll back Stricker rather than Spieth who has shot 70 or higher in five of the six times he has started the 3rd round in the top-10, including the last Playoff event when he was in a very similar position after 36 holes, but then shot 73 in rd3 to drop from 6th to 29th.
Matt Kuchar to beat Boo Weekley -138 @ Stan James [also available @ Bet365]
A basement battle here and that means a nervous weekend for Weekley who is currently projected to be 28th in the FedEx Cup Playoff Rankings and only the top-30 progress to the Tour Championship. He hasn't played particularly well since his win at Colonial in May - just one top-25 finish in the ten events since that win - and has struggled in all aspects of his game this week. Kuchar is currently 4th in the FedEx Cup Playoff Ranking and is only much more consistent - he has a 9-3-1 h2h record against Weekley this season - but should easily beat a player ranked 155th in 'Round 3 Scoring Average' many more times than these odds suggest.
[unofficial rd3 system plays: Furyk tb Snedeker +110; McIlroy tb Hoffman -120]
Round 4 Match Ups
J SPIETH (RND 4) -125 (J SPIETH (RND 4) vrs W SIMPSON (RND 4))
R SABBATINI (RND 4) -105 (R SABBATINI (RND 4) vrs N WATNEY (RND 4))
B SNEDEKER (RND 4) -115 (B SNEDEKER (RND 4) vrs Z JOHNSON (RND 4))
J SPIETH (RND 4) -125 (J SPIETH (RND 4) vrs W SIMPSON (RND 4))
R SABBATINI (RND 4) -105 (R SABBATINI (RND 4) vrs N WATNEY (RND 4))
B SNEDEKER (RND 4) -115 (B SNEDEKER (RND 4) vrs Z JOHNSON (RND 4))
Round 4 plays (4pts):
Hunter Mahan to beat Ryan Moore -103 @ 5Dimes [available generally]
Mahan is safely through to next week (currently forecast to be 15th in the FedEx Playoff Cup), whereas Moore will needs to be aggressive as he is currently forecast to be 36th so needs to improve his current 6th place position. Given that he currently ranks 166th (of 185) in Final Round Scoring Average on the PGA Tour, it looks unlikely that he will improve that position today. Mahan has a 7-2-1 h2h record against him in rd4 over the past 12 months, so there should be value in these odds.
Brendon De Jonge to beat John Merrick -101 @ 5Dimes [also available @ The Greek and Carib]
A similar story in this matchup. De Jonge will have to play very poorly today not to be in next week's Tour Championship, whereas Merrick's forecast position is 38th so he needs to improve by eight places in the FedEx Playoff Cup rankings and that means an aggressive round today. As in the previous matchup, he has failed to previously make this pay under final round pressure - he ranks 136th in Final Round Scoring Average this year, whereas De Jonge is 14th in this category.
Luke Donald to beat Matt Jones -114 @ 5Dimes [available generally]
A different type of play in this matchup. Both players are outside the standings for next week, currently forecast to be 41st and 39th respectively. It seems unlikely that either player will make it to next week's event, but with Jones ranking 44th in greens in regulation (and hitting no more than 11 greens in regulation in any round), it appears unlikely that he will shoot the very low round to progress. Donald's ball-striking has been much better this week - he ranks 8th in greens in regulation so far this week and only missed two yesterday - so he does look the more likely to give himself a chance of progression today.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Molder tb Bae +120; Els tb Cabrera -120]
Hunter Mahan to beat Ryan Moore -103 @ 5Dimes [available generally]
Mahan is safely through to next week (currently forecast to be 15th in the FedEx Playoff Cup), whereas Moore will needs to be aggressive as he is currently forecast to be 36th so needs to improve his current 6th place position. Given that he currently ranks 166th (of 185) in Final Round Scoring Average on the PGA Tour, it looks unlikely that he will improve that position today. Mahan has a 7-2-1 h2h record against him in rd4 over the past 12 months, so there should be value in these odds.
Brendon De Jonge to beat John Merrick -101 @ 5Dimes [also available @ The Greek and Carib]
A similar story in this matchup. De Jonge will have to play very poorly today not to be in next week's Tour Championship, whereas Merrick's forecast position is 38th so he needs to improve by eight places in the FedEx Playoff Cup rankings and that means an aggressive round today. As in the previous matchup, he has failed to previously make this pay under final round pressure - he ranks 136th in Final Round Scoring Average this year, whereas De Jonge is 14th in this category.
Luke Donald to beat Matt Jones -114 @ 5Dimes [available generally]
A different type of play in this matchup. Both players are outside the standings for next week, currently forecast to be 41st and 39th respectively. It seems unlikely that either player will make it to next week's event, but with Jones ranking 44th in greens in regulation (and hitting no more than 11 greens in regulation in any round), it appears unlikely that he will shoot the very low round to progress. Donald's ball-striking has been much better this week - he ranks 8th in greens in regulation so far this week and only missed two yesterday - so he does look the more likely to give himself a chance of progression today.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Molder tb Bae +120; Els tb Cabrera -120]
Good luck today. Followed your picks yesterday.
Who do you like to win? I was considering Snedeker plus 250. Thanks
Who do you like to win? I was considering Snedeker plus 250. Thanks
