Anyone can look at this match-up and see that BSU is clearly the better team. They have lost only 1 game this year (out of conference, at Oregon State), averaged nearly 44 points this year against all comers, and averaged over 50 against their last 6 opponents, 5 of whom were WAC teams. Hawaii, on the other hand has lost 4 games, 2 of them in conference. They have only averaged 34 points per game against all opponents this year, while giving up an average of 13 points per game more than BSU. To pick Hawaii, we need, what, at least 24?
Nah, 10 is more than enough.
BSU is indeed a scoring machine, and Hawaii?s defense should be no more capable of stopping it than any of the other WAC defenses. I fully expect BSU?s offensive performance to fit right in with their other games this year, but maybe not how you think. They may have averaged 44 points per game, but when you take out the SMUs, the SJSUs, the UTEPs, etc., you see that a lot of those points were unnecessary fluff there to pad Dinwiddie?s stats. Come on, 77 points against hapless San Jose? Against teams with winning records (@ OSU, Tulsa and @ Fresno St), their average offense output has been a much more reasonable 27 points. So, for the moment, let?s say that we expect BSU to put up around 27.
What about Hawaii? Their 34 points per game average is just as padded by scores run up against weak sisters, right? Nope. In their three games against teams with winning records (@ USC, @ Tulsa and Fresno St.), they averaged 34 points per game as well. So, do I expect Hawaii to win by around a TD. No, not that either.
For a given team to be playing Hawaii is simply nowhere near enough information to determine who should win. There really are two completely different Hawaii teams - Hawaii Home and Hawaii Away. Most teams have some sort of Home Field Advantage (or Disadvantage as may be), but with Hawaii, how we traditionally think of HFA doesn?t come close to covering it. BSU is playing Hawaii Home, which averages 44 points per game, as opposed to Hawaii Away which only averages 24 points per game. THAT is how you come up with the 34 point average, rather than running up the score on teams like Nevada. So am I saying Hawaii (Home) should win by around 17? No, I'm still not done, because that only addresses location's impact on Hawaii.
Look at what visiting teams like BSU have to do to play at Hawaii. First off, they have to dig the tractor out from under the snow to pull the team hay-wagon into town (pop. 238) to wait for the Greyhound bus to? No, scratch that - that was a cheap shot.
Seriously, I doubt that there are any direct flights from Boise to Honolulu, even for conference-leading football teams. I?d guess you?d be looking at least 10 hours travel, plus God knows how much additional time for airport security to check all of those shoes. Probably dorm-to-hotel is something like 16 hours, at best. And then your watch is off by 3 hours. And you?re sweating like a pig, because it is winter in Idaho, but Endless May in Hawaii. And now you have to play a football game in the next day or two at what feels like midnight. This is why teams that go to Hawaii to play almost always seriously underperform and conversely, why Hawaii on the road is nowhere near as good as at home. So, now we?re up to around Hawaii by 20, huh? Still no, as 3 points aren?t enough to describe the HFA for Hawaii. I personally think it hovers around X points. That?s right, X points (cue visions of Steve Martin at the bank in The Jerk). How much is X? It?s a bunch. So, I make it Hawaii wins by 17 + X. No, wait, two more things.
First off, Timmy Chang either has a still sore ankle, or JJ is sick of the interceptions. Either way, we saw what Jason Whieldon can do (against Bama) and if he should struggle this week, Chang is always available. Anyway, Whieldon?s inexperience would be a bigger issue against a normal pass defense rather than against BSU?s version of the WAC/Swiss Cheese pass defense. Secondly, you have to expect BSU to step up at least a little to meet the scoring pressure they will face for the first time in 2 months. Good teams with good coaches can and do rise to the occasion.
Now (finally) I am ready to wrap it all up. Unless BSU has an awful game with turnovers, I don?t really see Hawaii running away with this game (as opposed to the impression you might have gotten). In fact, despite all of the preceding expert analysis and unassailable logic, I have to admit that deep down, I cannot help but wonder if BSU might pull out a 10 point win after all. Nonetheless, my read is that Hawaii is the pick here. I say Hawaii +10 is a slam dunk and if I can find Hawaii at over +420, I?ll go money line as well. Lastly, I don't think that the line is going to move against Hawaii, so there is probably no harm in waiting to see it you can get a better line.
Nah, 10 is more than enough.
BSU is indeed a scoring machine, and Hawaii?s defense should be no more capable of stopping it than any of the other WAC defenses. I fully expect BSU?s offensive performance to fit right in with their other games this year, but maybe not how you think. They may have averaged 44 points per game, but when you take out the SMUs, the SJSUs, the UTEPs, etc., you see that a lot of those points were unnecessary fluff there to pad Dinwiddie?s stats. Come on, 77 points against hapless San Jose? Against teams with winning records (@ OSU, Tulsa and @ Fresno St), their average offense output has been a much more reasonable 27 points. So, for the moment, let?s say that we expect BSU to put up around 27.
What about Hawaii? Their 34 points per game average is just as padded by scores run up against weak sisters, right? Nope. In their three games against teams with winning records (@ USC, @ Tulsa and Fresno St.), they averaged 34 points per game as well. So, do I expect Hawaii to win by around a TD. No, not that either.
For a given team to be playing Hawaii is simply nowhere near enough information to determine who should win. There really are two completely different Hawaii teams - Hawaii Home and Hawaii Away. Most teams have some sort of Home Field Advantage (or Disadvantage as may be), but with Hawaii, how we traditionally think of HFA doesn?t come close to covering it. BSU is playing Hawaii Home, which averages 44 points per game, as opposed to Hawaii Away which only averages 24 points per game. THAT is how you come up with the 34 point average, rather than running up the score on teams like Nevada. So am I saying Hawaii (Home) should win by around 17? No, I'm still not done, because that only addresses location's impact on Hawaii.
Look at what visiting teams like BSU have to do to play at Hawaii. First off, they have to dig the tractor out from under the snow to pull the team hay-wagon into town (pop. 238) to wait for the Greyhound bus to? No, scratch that - that was a cheap shot.
Seriously, I doubt that there are any direct flights from Boise to Honolulu, even for conference-leading football teams. I?d guess you?d be looking at least 10 hours travel, plus God knows how much additional time for airport security to check all of those shoes. Probably dorm-to-hotel is something like 16 hours, at best. And then your watch is off by 3 hours. And you?re sweating like a pig, because it is winter in Idaho, but Endless May in Hawaii. And now you have to play a football game in the next day or two at what feels like midnight. This is why teams that go to Hawaii to play almost always seriously underperform and conversely, why Hawaii on the road is nowhere near as good as at home. So, now we?re up to around Hawaii by 20, huh? Still no, as 3 points aren?t enough to describe the HFA for Hawaii. I personally think it hovers around X points. That?s right, X points (cue visions of Steve Martin at the bank in The Jerk). How much is X? It?s a bunch. So, I make it Hawaii wins by 17 + X. No, wait, two more things.
First off, Timmy Chang either has a still sore ankle, or JJ is sick of the interceptions. Either way, we saw what Jason Whieldon can do (against Bama) and if he should struggle this week, Chang is always available. Anyway, Whieldon?s inexperience would be a bigger issue against a normal pass defense rather than against BSU?s version of the WAC/Swiss Cheese pass defense. Secondly, you have to expect BSU to step up at least a little to meet the scoring pressure they will face for the first time in 2 months. Good teams with good coaches can and do rise to the occasion.
Now (finally) I am ready to wrap it all up. Unless BSU has an awful game with turnovers, I don?t really see Hawaii running away with this game (as opposed to the impression you might have gotten). In fact, despite all of the preceding expert analysis and unassailable logic, I have to admit that deep down, I cannot help but wonder if BSU might pull out a 10 point win after all. Nonetheless, my read is that Hawaii is the pick here. I say Hawaii +10 is a slam dunk and if I can find Hawaii at over +420, I?ll go money line as well. Lastly, I don't think that the line is going to move against Hawaii, so there is probably no harm in waiting to see it you can get a better line.
