book reviews: its when you sell that counts and others

[selkirk]

My goal since 2008 is to read a book a month, in 2008 read ten books, in 2009 none, was a busy year, but that is still bad.

anyways so far have read eight book in 2010, plan on reaching 12-14 at least this year.

here are some non business ones that I have read:

1. Just after Sunset (stephen King, short stories, ) this is his latest short story collection...it got in general great reviews, I like his short stories more than his novels, since if you hate one then just wait forty pages.... in general a good collection, not his best but very good...note not a king fan in general but enjoy the short stories. pages 539


2. Why Orwell Matters by Christopher Hitchens, pages 211, this is a very good book about the one of the most important writers of the 20th centurey, .....before you die you should read Animal farm and 1984, also the book he wrote about the spanish civil war, which I have yet to read... today both the left and right claim him as their own...anyways a very good book about a writer who ussually spoke his mind,...

3. See Candies, this is mainly a picture book about the chocolate store in the US...have never been there, guess like laura secord in Canada...nice book, I love chocolate, never buy very much because I would eat it instantly....and that means another 20min on the bike....nice book .


ITS WHEN YOU SELL THAT COUNTS
pages 298,
most investors never consider the sell side of their stocks, this is probably more geared to traders but has some great pracitical advice.

1. most investors never consider a sell price, ( someone I know began trading in the last two years, rode 3 stocks down, 2 for a 90% loss, and another down over 50%). even in bad news most just ignore the problem.

2. stocks that grow their divdends over time do better than a stock that does not grow their dividend though at first my have a higher yield...so though tempting to buy a stock with a high yield....

better to buy a company with a dividend that will grow over time....than one that will stay flat.

3. most investors always have the price they pay for the stock, it is absolutely worthless, who cares, that market does not care what you paid...buy most investors when asking a question often will state what they paid for a stock...

he lists examples of a stock that had bad news and was going to zero or down sharply the news was out...and instead of getting out at a loss (some big, some small), an investor would keep it, since the stock was lower than what they paid for it...


I do not ussually fall for this but when I sold tck. and they did get the financing posted that it was great news...so why not buy back in, I was waiting to buy it below what I just sold it for....eventually I did buy back some but at much higher levels...this cost me a much larger profit, just becuase I did not want to buy it at a higher level, than I sold it for....

anyways a good book, and worth the small price.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

My goal since 2008 is to read a book a month, in 2008 read ten books, in 2009 none, was a busy year, but that is still bad.

anyways so far have read eight book in 2010, plan on reaching 12-14 at least this year.

here are some non business ones that I have read:

1. Just after Sunset (stephen King, short stories, ) this is his latest short story collection...it got in general great reviews, I like his short stories more than his novels, since if you hate one then just wait forty pages.... in general a good collection, not his best but very good...note not a king fan in general but enjoy the short stories. pages 539


2. Why Orwell Matters by Christopher Hitchens, pages 211, this is a very good book about the one of the most important writers of the 20th centurey, .....before you die you should read Animal farm and 1984, also the book he wrote about the spanish civil war, which I have yet to read... today both the left and right claim him as their own...anyways a very good book about a writer who ussually spoke his mind,...

3. See Candies, this is mainly a picture book about the chocolate store in the US...have never been there, guess like laura secord in Canada...nice book, I love chocolate, never buy very much because I would eat it instantly....and that means another 20min on the bike....nice book .


ITS WHEN YOU SELL THAT COUNTS
pages 298,
most investors never consider the sell side of their stocks, this is probably more geared to traders but has some great pracitical advice.

1. most investors never consider a sell price, ( someone I know began trading in the last two years, rode 3 stocks down, 2 for a 90% loss, and another down over 50%). even in bad news most just ignore the problem.

2. stocks that grow their divdends over time do better than a stock that does not grow their dividend though at first my have a higher yield...so though tempting to buy a stock with a high yield....

better to buy a company with a dividend that will grow over time....than one that will stay flat.

3. most investors always have the price they pay for the stock, it is absolutely worthless, who cares, that market does not care what you paid...buy most investors when asking a question often will state what they paid for a stock...

he lists examples of a stock that had bad news and was going to zero or down sharply the news was out...and instead of getting out at a loss (some big, some small), an investor would keep it, since the stock was lower than what they paid for it...


I do not ussually fall for this but when I sold tck. and they did get the financing posted that it was great news...so why not buy back in, I was waiting to buy it below what I just sold it for....eventually I did buy back some but at much higher levels...this cost me a much larger profit, just becuase I did not want to buy it at a higher level, than I sold it for....

anyways a good book, and worth the small price.

thanks
selkirk

Guilty as sin on above --even have notes of diff times and price in notes section.

I do not read many books but may get this one--however may do like usual and wait for your reviews and notations--

I got one down 50% right now that I have no intentions of selling (ung)--reason is I doubt a commodity ever goes to 0 and will at some point in time come off all time low and at least go back to ave price last decade--which would result in profit--
Is that barking up wrong tree?

 

[Kid Bro Sweets]

good post should pick this up, how do you guys decide when to cut ties and sell for a loss?

 

[selkirk]

DTB is doing a better job this year than they did in the past of tracking natural gas. believe the tracking error has been from 1.5% to 1.9%, which is not that bad.

believe at one time they were only doing monthly contracts and trying to roll them over, doing it all at once led to a greater tracking error.

one item would want to know (and do not) is how much you lose if the underlying commodity sits flat....this would apply to others such as gld..if it sat flat how much does the investor lose... believe it is a small amount.

I would never touch a double or triple etf in commodities or anything, they are the worse...unless you are a great two week market timer....

since as of this year it is doing a better job of tracking nat gas, what does nat gas do...

it probably goes lower, however if we have a hot weather that might help support nat. gas to some degree (hydro).

negatives

-record amounts of storage
-record amount of drilling for nat gas, I mean it is amazing the number of rigs looking for shale gas...
-lng (smalll negative as most will be sold to other markets, still more supply when all can be supplied by domestic production
- low economic growth, in North America, you never know, if we get growth 5-7% for a couple of years, there will be no more problems....

positives

when nat gas hits 2 and change drilling will start to dry up drilling will be cut back, not sure how quickly but these things can move back quickly.

more hydro is being generated using nat gas..clean source, and cheap, even at 5 would be cheap...there are a couple coming on stream every few months...in Canada and the US.

if the US ever pass a bill encouraging vehicles ect...to run on them, the hype takes it higher and later increased demand.

beleive nat gas will range from 2-4.50 the rest of the year...not sure on weather (hot summer and cold winter ) be the best, and economic growth...

more bullish on oil which will stay in the 70-95 range.

currently own CNQ, though more than half of their production is oil, and that will be increasing with Horizen and their increasing oil sand production...have a small positon currently, may be increased...depends on price.

own no pure nat gas stocks, though was looking at eca. eca announced they would double production in five years, instead of the stock going up the stock dropped, no one wants to hear about increased nat gas production...

will watch eca, and will probably buy it, but there is not rush, everyone hates it....will wait to see if they put a bigger sale price on it...

as for UNG it would only be a small holding, these etfs that track commodities....volatile.

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

KBS there is no one answer, but here are some my thoughts on stops.

-before buying a stock, look at downside and upside, often try to get the negatives.

- in the book and I agree an investor should examine the stock once it hit the downside or upside target you set before buying the stock... then look at it if you want to sell all or some.

- would you buy the stock today, if the answer is no, sell.

- on bad news often more will follow. for instance if a company badly misses earnings, I will be one of the first ones to sell....if it is not a one time event.

ie. back in the 90s bought HBC Hudson bay company (the oldest retailer in North America), they own Zellers, and bay stores. the earnings came in at least 50% lower than expected. sold it that morning...I had the first trade.

bought it just below 21 and sold at 19.50-19.80 ? (more than ten years ago)... most reports said buy or hold...anyways stock fell to $8...and later recovered to 13.

you not only lose money but it was a bull market so you loss the chance to buy a stock that was working and performing better.


- how does the stock do compared to the market
a friend bought BCE recently, and the market had a small sell off, just a couple hundred points...

so BCE fell, though it did better than the rest in the telco group, and in general better than the market...he sold and since has recovered two dollars.

look at the stock is it doing better than the group, also the general market.

if a stock lags then consider selling it.

thanks
selkirk

 

[Kid Bro Sweets]

thanks selkirk, great insight as usual

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Selkirk: I have a thread in the General Discussion forum to keep track of what you're reading. Last year I set a total book goal of 15 and ended up at 17. In a weird way, that thread helped me stay on track.

No matter what types of books your into, it would be nice to hear what you've been reading.

http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=392736

-Gary

 

[selkirk]

Gary will add to the list, reading two books and when I am done will add to the thread, with the books have read so far. basically read non fiction, or if it is fiction classics.. this year read crime and punishment.

there was a thriller, spy, called a page turner, but have to find the article if I am going to read the book. agree with you on list, helps me track what am reading.

KBS another time to sell is when the market is going against a position.

about 3 weeks ago, the cdn. banks began reporting earnings...had uncovered puts and calls...
the calls were more than 10% out of the money and thought they would expire.

then the banks started to move, and they started reporting earnings, the first two bmo and cibc came in and beat earnigs, also retail bank earnings increased greatly (this is less volatile than what they make on securities).

anyways long story short a few day after they start reporting and before TD reported, I covered all my uncovered calls on two banks.

loss on the put/call trade for four trades was total $853, if I waited 3 more weeks...the loss would be 3800-4200... never good to lose on a trade but would rather lose 853 than wait and lose 4000.


the other trades worked out so it was a very profitable month...also should have covered sooner and the loss would have been less than 400...live and learn.

thanks
selkirk

 

[Kid Bro Sweets]

yeah exactly no lession is free.

Do you have a take on Bombardier, Inc. BBD.B? Trying to put my money in my TSFA to use so would like to place it in something long term that i can't do drips in. Love all the rail projects and if their new c-stream project is a success i think they is a pretty solid company.

The other one i was looking was Cineplex Galaxy Income... CGX.UN, with the past recession they still seem to do very well as it's a cheap form of entertainment for the family (relatively) and with 3d movies coming out now i can see business picking up.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Selkirk: Have you ever read any of Michael Lewis's books? Wondering what you think if you have. I really liked Next and am considering getting Panic .

 

[selkirk]

KBS I own Bomber and recently sold cgx.un ( a mistake).

1. first bbd.b my average cost is 5.75, this close at 6.23 but went as low as 6... so it moves around.

traded this back in 96-1999, with a good deal of success until the last trade which cost me $3 a share, glad got out at 15 rather than 3.

anyways in 2008 bought some of the debt, when the credit crisis hit, did not feel they would go bankrupt and the debt paid a good yield.

now sold most of the debt and own some of the stock avg. cost 5.75, has a 11.68 pe and a yield of 1.64%

honestly this is not a widows and orphans stock, and I do not care for the railway diviision though it seems to be improving, thought it was dumb when they went into it so heavilly...plenty of compeitition and low profit margins...dream of 3-4% if that....


also governments ussually want production or a certain amount of it in their own country, increased costs... also it lowered their mulitple on the stock...

saying that it is a constant source of funds, and profits seem to be improving slowly..

no wether I make a good return or lose 25% comes down to the planes, the C series...obviously I am betting that it does well...

they announced a deal in China, for financiing which might lead to billions of sales, though it is early on...Asia will be the main market...for the planes...

the risks are the plane sales do not come through, also if the economy tanks worldwide we have a loser...

still have a position, hope if works out like the debt recently and not the last time I owned the equity...


CGX.un in Canada if you go to the movies probably 90% chance you are going to CGX.un... since they bought out their biggest competitor...

they have done many things correct and should have bought sooner... here is a list...


1. bought out biggest competitor.
2. introduced a visa through scotia bank , co branding...small
3. ads before the movies, listened to an ad show that thought these were terrble as not designed just for the movie crowd...still they make $$$$$$$
4. digitail film, decreases costs, and is a better product for the audiance.
5. 3d 3d 3d 3d...even when people have 3d tvs, they will go see the latest well reveiwed blockbuster in digitial 3d large screen...avatar, alice in wonderland, how to train a dragon...ect...ect...
Avatar is even coming back the biggest grossing film is going to have extra scenes because they feel they can make another couple hundred million.
------------------------------------------------------------------

6. Did you see the opera at the MET, well I never did bought they sold out almost all of the screens, knew someone who studies music and she bought a ticket...I know nothing but you are not only do wrestling but opera at the met, and you sell out 50-70 screens at 40-50 a pop.

so I traded this stock a few month back, made .40 a trade, however sold at 18.20, so would have earned a few monthly divs, and made more money if kept it...

will try to buy it below 20 cdn.
note they will no longer be an income trust, however will keep the div at leat for the first few years, as low payout...yield 6.21%...and better for taxes, div tax credit...

will buy some now, and try to get some later, they will raise interest rates, and you may get some banks, high yielding stocks, pipelines, on a small sale.

note: if you have a discount broker you should contact them because they will often set up a synthetic drip, they will take the div and buy full shares (what left over goes to cash), you could do this for long term holdings held in a tfsa and rrsp, self directed...

would do it for cgx.un and not bbd.b as lower div.

end of novel.


thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

Gary read the book he is probably most famous for Liars Poker, also listened (have) the audio book which he reads.

chance are you will like liars poker which is about his early days and short life on Wall Street, and in London financial world..

Panic is a book that has short articles by other authors, Lewis picks them up and has some comments, but this is a collection of articles about manias, ect, I plan to read it...generally got decent reviews just some people hated it, because it is a collection of articles Lewis picked out, ....helped to edit...he writes some...

you will probably like Liars poker, (have to read panic),

Barbarians at the gate is descibed at the best business book ever...not sure about that but it is very good,...hbo did a movie back in 1991?? on it.

about the RJR takevover.

thanks
selkirk

 

[Kid Bro Sweets]

KBS I own Bomber and recently sold cgx.un ( a mistake).

1. first bbd.b my average cost is 5.75, this close at 6.23 but went as low as 6... so it moves around.

traded this back in 96-1999, with a good deal of success until the last trade which cost me $3 a share, glad got out at 15 rather than 3.

anyways in 2008 bought some of the debt, when the credit crisis hit, did not feel they would go bankrupt and the debt paid a good yield.

now sold most of the debt and own some of the stock avg. cost 5.75, has a 11.68 pe and a yield of 1.64%

honestly this is not a widows and orphans stock, and I do not care for the railway diviision though it seems to be improving, thought it was dumb when they went into it so heavilly...plenty of compeitition and low profit margins...dream of 3-4% if that....


also governments ussually want production or a certain amount of it in their own country, increased costs... also it lowered their mulitple on the stock...

saying that it is a constant source of funds, and profits seem to be improving slowly..

no wether I make a good return or lose 25% comes down to the planes, the C series...obviously I am betting that it does well...

they announced a deal in China, for financiing which might lead to billions of sales, though it is early on...Asia will be the main market...for the planes...

the risks are the plane sales do not come through, also if the economy tanks worldwide we have a loser...

still have a position, hope if works out like the debt recently and not the last time I owned the equity...


CGX.un in Canada if you go to the movies probably 90% chance you are going to CGX.un... since they bought out their biggest competitor...

they have done many things correct and should have bought sooner... here is a list...


1. bought out biggest competitor.
2. introduced a visa through scotia bank , co branding...small
3. ads before the movies, listened to an ad show that thought these were terrble as not designed just for the movie crowd...still they make $$$$$$$
4. digitail film, decreases costs, and is a better product for the audiance.
5. 3d 3d 3d 3d...even when people have 3d tvs, they will go see the latest well reveiwed blockbuster in digitial 3d large screen...avatar, alice in wonderland, how to train a dragon...ect...ect...
Avatar is even coming back the biggest grossing film is going to have extra scenes because they feel they can make another couple hundred million.
------------------------------------------------------------------

6. Did you see the opera at the MET, well I never did bought they sold out almost all of the screens, knew someone who studies music and she bought a ticket...I know nothing but you are not only do wrestling but opera at the met, and you sell out 50-70 screens at 40-50 a pop.

so I traded this stock a few month back, made .40 a trade, however sold at 18.20, so would have earned a few monthly divs, and made more money if kept it...

will try to buy it below 20 cdn.
note they will no longer be an income trust, however will keep the div at leat for the first few years, as low payout...yield 6.21%...and better for taxes, div tax credit...

will buy some now, and try to get some later, they will raise interest rates, and you may get some banks, high yielding stocks, pipelines, on a small sale.

note: if you have a discount broker you should contact them because they will often set up a synthetic drip, they will take the div and buy full shares (what left over goes to cash), you could do this for long term holdings held in a tfsa and rrsp, self directed...

would do it for cgx.un and not bbd.b as lower div.

end of novel.


thanks
selkirk

awesome review, i also really like CGX.un alot seems everyone i know has their scene card and setup with the bank/visa seemed like a great business movie.

The past week the NHL had the first live sports event in 3d, i think there is some potential here not so much for regular season games but more so for UFC events which is already being shown in most theatres. I already know that 3d tv setups will cost approx a thousand dollars more than the comparable tv and that will only include 2 3d head units, so i think people will have to the theatres for quite some time if they want 3d.

 

[selkirk]

KBS agree with the 3d sets, also it proabably still will not equal to the new digital 3d cinema, the fact that you can get sports fans, opera, mma, ect...and also the higher tickets that they can charge. a $20-50 ticket is much better for profits.

one little example to show how good cgx.un management is at a theater level, or higher. a local film group that has over 600 members use to have a couple of film festivals at a local theatre.

the local theatre closed had older films and technology and though films were cheaper no one went....so they asked cgx.un if they could use one of their theatres...

they thought the answer would be no, and it would take weeks for a response, in less than week they got approved... though fewer screens, CGX.un gave them use of 2-3 screens over the weekend.

this means 2-3 screens with packed audiances, plus the spinoffs ie. ...food...but it builds up loyalty where before there was none.

main negative is the low yield 6.20%, and if there are rate increases the stock my go down, remember when buying it nervous when it yielded just under 7.5%..

so would buy half now, and half later if it went on sale later in the year, especailly if rates go up and people stop chasing yield.

bbd.b bomber reported earnings and missed at .10 a share in profit, now at 5.71-5.72...will start a bomber thread about earnings ect...

thanks
selkirk