By Dave Johnson
There has been much discussion this past week surrounding the officiating in last weekend?s Divisional Playoff game between the Colts and Steelers. The NFL acknowledged that referee Pete Morelli did make an error when he overturned the apparent interception by safety Troy Polamalu.
Fortunately, the decision had no impact on the overall outcome of the game. Or did it?
I will be the first to argue that the decision to overturn that call did, in fact, impact the overall outcome of that game. The foundation of my argument is based on the fact that I deal in margins of victory and not necessarily victories alone. The Steelers won by three points and will proceed to the next level of the playoffs. This is good enough for Steelers fans, but not good enough for a bookmaker who needed the Steelers to win by four points.
70% of all the money that was bet on this game last weekend was bet in favor of the Colts. We booked the Colts in every type of wager available in our shop. Straight bets, parlays, teasers, and even proposition wagers were heavy with Colts money. When the game started, we knew that, in order to make money on this game, the Steelers needed to win and win big.
They did win the game. We did make money. However, if the decision by referee Pete Morelli had not gone in favor of the Colts, we would have made a lot more money.
Let me explain how.
In order for me to do this I need to make the best assumption on the outcome of the game, if the call stands. At the time of the call, there was 5:26 remaining in the 4th quarter and the line of scrimmage would have been around midfield. With that in mind, for the purpose of explaining the following results, let's agree that the Steelers would have used their rushing attack to run out the clock and end the game at 21-10.
Result #1
The Colts were a -10 point favorite when they went off the board. A very popular wager known as the ?teaser? was heavily played on the Colts. The definition of a teaser wager is the following:
A teaser is a wager on two or more teams or selections. The difference between the teaser and the parlay is that the player can adjust or tease the line in his/her own favor.
Bettors who made 14 point teasers on the Colts had them +4. (Pointspread + Teaser amount = Line) or (-10 +14 = +4). The Colts could lose the game by up to four points and bettors who played this type of bet would still win.
The final score of the game was 21-18. The Colts lost by three points. Bettors who had 14 point teasers with Colts +4 won as a result of the Morelli call. If the call on the field stands and the Colts lose 21-10, the 14 point teasers would have all lost and bookmakers would have made more money.
Result #2
The Colts were down 14 -3 at halftime. We always offer what is known as a 2nd half line on major football games. The 2nd half or halftime line is defined as follows:
A 2nd half wager is a bet made at the intermission or halftime of a game. The bet is based and scored on the result of the 2nd half plus overtime.
We posted the 2nd half line on the game at Colts -7.5. We felt the Colts would score 7.5 more points in the 2nd half than the Steelers based on what we saw transpire in the 1st half.
The Steelers had a 21-10 lead when the Troy Polamalu interception occurred. At this time, any bettor who made a bet on the Colts -7.5 in the 2nd half of this game was losing his or her bet. The 2nd half score of the game was Steelers 7 and Colts 7. The Morelli call put the ball back in the hands of the Colts who scored and converted for two extra points. The eight point play resulted in a 2nd half score of Colts 15 and Steelers 7. All the bettors who played the Colts -7.5 in the 2nd half now won instead of losing.
Result #3
On all televised football games, we offer what are known as player propositions or player props. Proposition wagering has become huge over the past few years and has a very big profit pool for bookmakers. In this particular game, we listed a prop on how many passing yards Peyton Manning would have in the game. We handicapped and posted the line at Manning over or under 275 yards passing.
People could bet ?over? 275 yards if they felt Manning would have a big day or they could bet ?under? 275,? if they felt he might have an off day.
At the time of the Morelli decision, Manning had a total of 213 yards passing. We had booked a large amount of money on the ?over? in this proposition so we were in a great position to win big. The call is overturned and Manning passes for an additional 77 yards for a total of 290 for the game. Bettors who played ?over? won this proposition and, once again, bookmakers lost a lot of money.
So the call, obviously, did not steal the victory from the Steelers. However, it did cause an interesting financial outcome for many bookmakers.
This past Thursday, I read an article stating that a window in referee Pete Morelli's house had been broken by a thrown rock. The story reported that Morelli and his wife were upstairs getting ready for bed when they heard a loud crash and ran downstairs, where they found broken glass and a rock. Coincidence? Possible?but if I had to put money on it, I would bet the rock thrower just might have had Steelers +7.5 in the second half of that game.
About Dave Johnson - CEO and founder of http://www.wagerweb.com
He started in the gambling business over 10 years ago, working for some of the largest gambling syndicates in Las Vegas and around the world. He opened http://www.wagerweb.com 5 years ago in Costa Rica, and today oversees all daily operations of the business. A professional from "both sides of the counter," Dave delivers weekly the information that gamblers and bookmakers want and need to know
There has been much discussion this past week surrounding the officiating in last weekend?s Divisional Playoff game between the Colts and Steelers. The NFL acknowledged that referee Pete Morelli did make an error when he overturned the apparent interception by safety Troy Polamalu.
Fortunately, the decision had no impact on the overall outcome of the game. Or did it?
I will be the first to argue that the decision to overturn that call did, in fact, impact the overall outcome of that game. The foundation of my argument is based on the fact that I deal in margins of victory and not necessarily victories alone. The Steelers won by three points and will proceed to the next level of the playoffs. This is good enough for Steelers fans, but not good enough for a bookmaker who needed the Steelers to win by four points.
70% of all the money that was bet on this game last weekend was bet in favor of the Colts. We booked the Colts in every type of wager available in our shop. Straight bets, parlays, teasers, and even proposition wagers were heavy with Colts money. When the game started, we knew that, in order to make money on this game, the Steelers needed to win and win big.
They did win the game. We did make money. However, if the decision by referee Pete Morelli had not gone in favor of the Colts, we would have made a lot more money.
Let me explain how.
In order for me to do this I need to make the best assumption on the outcome of the game, if the call stands. At the time of the call, there was 5:26 remaining in the 4th quarter and the line of scrimmage would have been around midfield. With that in mind, for the purpose of explaining the following results, let's agree that the Steelers would have used their rushing attack to run out the clock and end the game at 21-10.
Result #1
The Colts were a -10 point favorite when they went off the board. A very popular wager known as the ?teaser? was heavily played on the Colts. The definition of a teaser wager is the following:
A teaser is a wager on two or more teams or selections. The difference between the teaser and the parlay is that the player can adjust or tease the line in his/her own favor.
Bettors who made 14 point teasers on the Colts had them +4. (Pointspread + Teaser amount = Line) or (-10 +14 = +4). The Colts could lose the game by up to four points and bettors who played this type of bet would still win.
The final score of the game was 21-18. The Colts lost by three points. Bettors who had 14 point teasers with Colts +4 won as a result of the Morelli call. If the call on the field stands and the Colts lose 21-10, the 14 point teasers would have all lost and bookmakers would have made more money.
Result #2
The Colts were down 14 -3 at halftime. We always offer what is known as a 2nd half line on major football games. The 2nd half or halftime line is defined as follows:
A 2nd half wager is a bet made at the intermission or halftime of a game. The bet is based and scored on the result of the 2nd half plus overtime.
We posted the 2nd half line on the game at Colts -7.5. We felt the Colts would score 7.5 more points in the 2nd half than the Steelers based on what we saw transpire in the 1st half.
The Steelers had a 21-10 lead when the Troy Polamalu interception occurred. At this time, any bettor who made a bet on the Colts -7.5 in the 2nd half of this game was losing his or her bet. The 2nd half score of the game was Steelers 7 and Colts 7. The Morelli call put the ball back in the hands of the Colts who scored and converted for two extra points. The eight point play resulted in a 2nd half score of Colts 15 and Steelers 7. All the bettors who played the Colts -7.5 in the 2nd half now won instead of losing.
Result #3
On all televised football games, we offer what are known as player propositions or player props. Proposition wagering has become huge over the past few years and has a very big profit pool for bookmakers. In this particular game, we listed a prop on how many passing yards Peyton Manning would have in the game. We handicapped and posted the line at Manning over or under 275 yards passing.
People could bet ?over? 275 yards if they felt Manning would have a big day or they could bet ?under? 275,? if they felt he might have an off day.
At the time of the Morelli decision, Manning had a total of 213 yards passing. We had booked a large amount of money on the ?over? in this proposition so we were in a great position to win big. The call is overturned and Manning passes for an additional 77 yards for a total of 290 for the game. Bettors who played ?over? won this proposition and, once again, bookmakers lost a lot of money.
So the call, obviously, did not steal the victory from the Steelers. However, it did cause an interesting financial outcome for many bookmakers.
This past Thursday, I read an article stating that a window in referee Pete Morelli's house had been broken by a thrown rock. The story reported that Morelli and his wife were upstairs getting ready for bed when they heard a loud crash and ran downstairs, where they found broken glass and a rock. Coincidence? Possible?but if I had to put money on it, I would bet the rock thrower just might have had Steelers +7.5 in the second half of that game.
About Dave Johnson - CEO and founder of http://www.wagerweb.com
He started in the gambling business over 10 years ago, working for some of the largest gambling syndicates in Las Vegas and around the world. He opened http://www.wagerweb.com 5 years ago in Costa Rica, and today oversees all daily operations of the business. A professional from "both sides of the counter," Dave delivers weekly the information that gamblers and bookmakers want and need to know
