Steam moving to the UNDER, but I'm on the OVER heavy.
Maybe people think lefty vs. lefty low scoring in Boston? Maybe people thing Wells will shut down Toronto? Toronto may not be the best offensive road team if you look at entire season, but last 2 road games they've scored 27 runs. Wells isn't the Wells of old. He's given up 20 hits in L2 starts lasting 5.0 IP each.
On top of that, Boston offense gets an overrated Chacin. Chacin's 3.40 ERA is way overstated. First of all, his ERA is 5.68 L3 with a poor 1.74 WHIP. Here's why his ERA is overstated- his 5 of the teams in his L6 starts are all at the bottom of the league in scoring offense!
Chacin's L4 starts went OVER. Wells L2 starts went OVER.
But here's the kicker everyone is missing-- Larry Poncino is behind the plate! Poncino is 7-2 OVER. In 2004 he was 19-12 O/U. WIth the way Toronto offense has been going, and Boston offensive "potential" vs. overrated Chacin that they are seeing for a second time... I see an easy OVER by the 6th or 7th inning here.
And you get dog money to boot!
P.S. Boston bullpen has also been pounded lately and may be tired... if Wells only lasts 5 innings like L2 starts this will be an easy over.
Maybe people think lefty vs. lefty low scoring in Boston? Maybe people thing Wells will shut down Toronto? Toronto may not be the best offensive road team if you look at entire season, but last 2 road games they've scored 27 runs. Wells isn't the Wells of old. He's given up 20 hits in L2 starts lasting 5.0 IP each.
On top of that, Boston offense gets an overrated Chacin. Chacin's 3.40 ERA is way overstated. First of all, his ERA is 5.68 L3 with a poor 1.74 WHIP. Here's why his ERA is overstated- his 5 of the teams in his L6 starts are all at the bottom of the league in scoring offense!
Chacin's L4 starts went OVER. Wells L2 starts went OVER.
But here's the kicker everyone is missing-- Larry Poncino is behind the plate! Poncino is 7-2 OVER. In 2004 he was 19-12 O/U. WIth the way Toronto offense has been going, and Boston offensive "potential" vs. overrated Chacin that they are seeing for a second time... I see an easy OVER by the 6th or 7th inning here.
And you get dog money to boot!
P.S. Boston bullpen has also been pounded lately and may be tired... if Wells only lasts 5 innings like L2 starts this will be an easy over.