Bovis Lend Lease European Senior Masters

[Stanley]

Outright plays (2 units):

David Good to win 66/1 e.w. @ Stan James and BetInternet
Good was a selection for the last European Senior Tour event covered and was in contention for much of the event before falling away in the final round. Woburn is a similar tree-lined parkland course and he holds just as good a course history here as at Wentworth - 6th and 4th in the two years of this event. He remains in good form with top-10 finishes in three of his last five starts and looks very much overpriced for a 72-man event.

Horacio Carbonetti to win 66/1 e.w. @ Stan James and BetInternet
Good's last Tour event may have been two years ago, but it is only a matter of one month for the 2002 Q-School winner. He won the Bad Ragaz PGA Seniors Open in Switzerland last month, had been 4th the week before and finished 7th the following week in the Travis Perkins Senior Masters having been much higher for most of the event. He is a Tour rookie so has no course experience, but he has shown he can play on parkland courses and is having a very impressive debut season.

Jerry Bruner to win 100/1 e.w. @ Stan James
There are some strange prices to be found in the minor events and this is certainly one of them. In a 72-man field, Stan James think that 'Mouse' Bruner has a distinctly less-than-the-average-player chance of winning. Yet he ranks 8th in the European Senior Tour Order of Merit, won the Northumberland Seniors Classic in June on another similar course (Slaley Hall), has finished in the top-10 in the last four Tour events and 3rd and 8th on this course in the last two years. I just wish this Tour would be priced up more often!

 

[Clive]

Well....I don't feel so bad now!!

I was convinced the 100/1 Bruner was a stupid price...had to request him to be added at Bet Internet before I could back him...then SJ went 100/1 too! Spoke to their compiler who stands by the price...wonder for how long!?

It seems to me there are a number of players who should be no bigger than 33/1.....Cambridge is one...I also backed Good and may well pop off and back Mr Carbonetti too...

SJ will be betting in-running this weekend apparently..

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (2 units unless stated):

Delroy Cambridge to beat Priscillo Diniz -111 @ BetandWin [6 units]
Was surprised to see outright odds for this event and am completely amazed to see matchups as well. Just a pity I didn't spot them sooner! Cambridge is defending champion and with Diniz having secured just one top-15 finish all season, it is no surprise that Cambridge has a 16-5-0 h2h lead over the past year.

Malcolm Gregson to beat Ross Metherell -111 @ BetandWin [6 units]
Metherell hasn't even had a top-30 finish this year! He did finish 4th last year, but it was the only time in the past year that he has finished ahead of Gregson. Can't see it happening again. I can't remember seeing such a one-sided matchup ... my stats put this as a 91% chance of winning for Gregson!

John Mashego to beat Bill Hardwick -111 @ BetandWin [6 units]
A paltry 79% chance is the estimation for Mashego. Hardwick has yet to finish in the top-20 this season and finished outside the top-50 both times in this event. Mashego has finished ahead of Hardwick in all but one common event in the past year, so can't see this one happening again either.

Nick Job to beat Mike Miller -111 @ BetandWin
Miller did win the Nigel Mansell Classic two weeks ago, but that was his first top-20 finish in ten starts and he then finished outside that mark again last week. Job finished 2nd and has finished ahead of Miller in eight of their last ten common events. Should be a win for Job, but not as clear-cut as the other selections.

John Morgan to beat Russell Weir -111 @ BetandWin [6 units]
Morgan has finished in the top-15 in each of the last two years here and should at least go close to achieving that mark again. Weir has achieved that mark just once this year (14 events) and that was in Barbados in March. Again, the selection appears to be in much better form.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Wow. Wish B&W didnt kick us American customers out. I'll ride along with....

Carbonetti 66-1 ew 1/4 1234

Wish I could find that price on Bruner!

 

[Stanley]

Bet365 did price up this event and I didn't see Bruner on their list. They will add players if you email them and request it.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Thanks Stanley. I did call them up thats the only way I got a decent amount on Carbonetti. They only offered me 66-1 on Bruner. I was gonna take 80 but decided to pass on 66-1. I hope that wasnt a mistake!

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 5-0-0; +26.00 units

Cambridge/Diniz WON by 10
Gregson/Metherell WON by 13
Mashego/Hardwick WON by 8
Job/Miller WON by 9
Morgan/Weir WON by 10

Outrights: 1-2; +7.00 units

Good 35th
Carbonetti 25th
Bruner 4th

Very profitable event! Did have dreams of hitting the jackpot when Bruner had a share of the lead with six holes to play, but he finished over-par from that point and had to settle for a four-way tie for 4th place. A much-reduced payout, but still a nice profit. Was very surprised to see matchups for this event and can only to see them again. As stated above, I just wish this Tour would be priced up more often!

European Senior Tour ytd
Matchups: 7-1; +27.30 units
18-holes: 7-3; +5.47 units
Outrights: 3-6; +22.00 units

 

[Clive]

Good job on those match ups, Stan.

Thought we might hit the big one too! If Bruner had spent less time blowing kisses to everyone he might have hung on! Grateful for the place portion in the end, though.