Good Morning Fellow Cappers!!!
Bowl Season is upon us.. Good times. Lets all win some money as the CFB goes through its encore part of the season.
I will keep my plays in this thread, until it gets too cumbersome to follow. Then, I'll start a new one. Also, I will update the record in a couple of hours. I forgot this first game was 11 and not noon......so I want to quickly post my play in the first game before hitting the road for my final Christmas shopping errands of the season.
In related news, what in the world did we do before DVR and/or Tivo? I wont miss any of the action......although the DVR concept makes second half wagering a little problematic. :SIB
Anyway, onto to my first of many bowl plays:
Navy +3 over Wake x 2
An intriguing matchup of styles meets us to kick off bowl season. Its Navy's triple option versus the constant misdirection and deception of Wake Forest. I enjoy watching both teams style of play. And, I love betting on both because both are well coached, hard to play against and get zero repsect from the general public. Translation: You get generous lines in their favor all the time. I am saddened a bit that I have to go against one of these teams.
These teams played each other nearly three months ago. Navy took down Wake, 24-17. Admit it, you missed the game because you were glued to Michigan's thrilling comeback over Wisconsin going on at the same time. So, let me offer a quick summary. Wake turned the ball over six times, including QB Riley Skinner chucking four interceptions. Navy leapt out to a 17-0 lead and outgained the Deacons 296-43 on the ground.
The game helped define Navy in the post Paul Johnson era and helped spark a nice fall run that saw Navy go 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS in their final eight games. For Wake, meanwhile, it exposed the Deacs as a limited team on offense with a mediocre QB. Worse, it showed you could do damage, particularily on the ground, against the well regarded Wake defense. Heading into the contest, Wake had been flying high after stoning Florida State and elevated to #16 in the polls. Including the Navy game, Wake slumped to a 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS record in their final nine contests.
Conventional wisdom says expect Wake to make amends for that defeat in this game. Skinner, as average as he is, is not a turnover machine and wont throw four picks again. Wake Forest is tied for third nationally in Turnover Margin, so dont expect a repeat of the debacle back in September.
While I agree that Wake wont turn it over six times again, I dont think the Deacons will get their measure of revenge in this bowl season lid lifter. For one, that turnover margin strength is negated by the fact that the team tied for third in this stat with Wake is Navy. Wake will improve that -4 TO stat from the first game, but it wont turn it completely around either.
I do think Navy's ability to run the football will stay constant. They outrushed the Deacs by over 250 yards. Navy's QB Kapio-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada is as healthy now as he has been all season from a nagging hamstring injury. With him, fullback Eric Kettani and tailback Shaun White, I dont see Wake having any better success stopping this attack the second time around. Indeed, Navy played most of the first game without their top QB, so the Navy attack, while familiar to the Wake defenders, may have an added edge to it that Wake wont be ready for. This will be a triple option attack humming at its best. Expect a lot of third, and even fourth, and short conversions all day for Navy as they set sail on at least three long, time consuming drives for scores.
Wake has scored 17 or less points in seven of its last 10 games and only more than 23 once in that span. This team is lousy on offense. Its in the bottom quarter of a lot of offensive categories including total offense, rushing offense and points scored. It cant lean on any one thing. While Navy can beat you with three different guys running the football, Wake cant counter with anything other than their defense setting it up on short fields and good special teams play. That combo can win you a lot of games, but against Navy, who does not turn the ball while controling time of possession, it does not.
One of my primary rules as the season goes on is always take a strong look at Navy when its getting points. Navy is 21-9 ATS as a dog in its last 30 chances away from home. Conversely, Wake is a mediocre 11-16 ATS as a favorite.
Historically, underdogs who outrush their opponents cover the spread at alarming rates. Of course, its hard to identify which team will outrush which team prior to the game. Thats not the case with Navy, which has now lead the nation in rushing for four consecutive seasons. Navy has outrushed the opposition in 34 of its last 38 games.
That might be more important this time of year. If want more hard numbers, try this on for size. This comes courtesy of our good friend AR, who reported the following angle in his Bowl Thread: Bowl underdogs who outrush their opponent are 122-51-5 ATS since 1980. Its a good bet that we can pencil Navy in for more yards on the ground today. I'll gladly give this angle a try to start the bowl season.
Finally one last piece of intriguing motivation. Revenge aside, is Wake really all that stoked to be here? They had a January bowl game on their minds four weeks ago. Navy, meanwhile, will be ready to go. They could care less about the situation, venue, time of day (note, that 11 am start. Who responds better here, I wonder, the military men or the typical college boys? Gee, I''m not sure), foe or weather. Regardless, they will punch you in the mouth and run that triple option down your throat.
But, consider this bonus piece of motivation. Part of each team's pre bowl itinerary includes a visit to the US Naval Academy where they'll spend time with injured and wounded Naval troops. I am sure the moment will prove poignamt for the boys at Wake. However, something like that ought to inspire the Middies sky high. They will take the field for their fallen comrades. The Navy's senior leadership will be embarking themselves in a few months for active duty in the Persian Gulf. Spurred by the urging of their wounded buddies, they will relish the chance to take the field one more time. Wake might as well be wearing terrorist jerseys this morning.
What has changed since that first match-up? Not much, although a strong case can be made that Navy has improved a bunch since then as they got used to the sideline leadership and play calling of new coach Ken Niumataloo. Wake seems to have regressed this season. They cant score points and Navy's triple option will be too much for them to overcome. Navy has covered four straight bowls. Today will make five.
Good Luck. :weed:
Bowl Season is upon us.. Good times. Lets all win some money as the CFB goes through its encore part of the season.
I will keep my plays in this thread, until it gets too cumbersome to follow. Then, I'll start a new one. Also, I will update the record in a couple of hours. I forgot this first game was 11 and not noon......so I want to quickly post my play in the first game before hitting the road for my final Christmas shopping errands of the season.
In related news, what in the world did we do before DVR and/or Tivo? I wont miss any of the action......although the DVR concept makes second half wagering a little problematic. :SIB
Anyway, onto to my first of many bowl plays:
Navy +3 over Wake x 2
An intriguing matchup of styles meets us to kick off bowl season. Its Navy's triple option versus the constant misdirection and deception of Wake Forest. I enjoy watching both teams style of play. And, I love betting on both because both are well coached, hard to play against and get zero repsect from the general public. Translation: You get generous lines in their favor all the time. I am saddened a bit that I have to go against one of these teams.
These teams played each other nearly three months ago. Navy took down Wake, 24-17. Admit it, you missed the game because you were glued to Michigan's thrilling comeback over Wisconsin going on at the same time. So, let me offer a quick summary. Wake turned the ball over six times, including QB Riley Skinner chucking four interceptions. Navy leapt out to a 17-0 lead and outgained the Deacons 296-43 on the ground.
The game helped define Navy in the post Paul Johnson era and helped spark a nice fall run that saw Navy go 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS in their final eight games. For Wake, meanwhile, it exposed the Deacs as a limited team on offense with a mediocre QB. Worse, it showed you could do damage, particularily on the ground, against the well regarded Wake defense. Heading into the contest, Wake had been flying high after stoning Florida State and elevated to #16 in the polls. Including the Navy game, Wake slumped to a 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS record in their final nine contests.
Conventional wisdom says expect Wake to make amends for that defeat in this game. Skinner, as average as he is, is not a turnover machine and wont throw four picks again. Wake Forest is tied for third nationally in Turnover Margin, so dont expect a repeat of the debacle back in September.
While I agree that Wake wont turn it over six times again, I dont think the Deacons will get their measure of revenge in this bowl season lid lifter. For one, that turnover margin strength is negated by the fact that the team tied for third in this stat with Wake is Navy. Wake will improve that -4 TO stat from the first game, but it wont turn it completely around either.
I do think Navy's ability to run the football will stay constant. They outrushed the Deacs by over 250 yards. Navy's QB Kapio-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada is as healthy now as he has been all season from a nagging hamstring injury. With him, fullback Eric Kettani and tailback Shaun White, I dont see Wake having any better success stopping this attack the second time around. Indeed, Navy played most of the first game without their top QB, so the Navy attack, while familiar to the Wake defenders, may have an added edge to it that Wake wont be ready for. This will be a triple option attack humming at its best. Expect a lot of third, and even fourth, and short conversions all day for Navy as they set sail on at least three long, time consuming drives for scores.
Wake has scored 17 or less points in seven of its last 10 games and only more than 23 once in that span. This team is lousy on offense. Its in the bottom quarter of a lot of offensive categories including total offense, rushing offense and points scored. It cant lean on any one thing. While Navy can beat you with three different guys running the football, Wake cant counter with anything other than their defense setting it up on short fields and good special teams play. That combo can win you a lot of games, but against Navy, who does not turn the ball while controling time of possession, it does not.
One of my primary rules as the season goes on is always take a strong look at Navy when its getting points. Navy is 21-9 ATS as a dog in its last 30 chances away from home. Conversely, Wake is a mediocre 11-16 ATS as a favorite.
Historically, underdogs who outrush their opponents cover the spread at alarming rates. Of course, its hard to identify which team will outrush which team prior to the game. Thats not the case with Navy, which has now lead the nation in rushing for four consecutive seasons. Navy has outrushed the opposition in 34 of its last 38 games.
That might be more important this time of year. If want more hard numbers, try this on for size. This comes courtesy of our good friend AR, who reported the following angle in his Bowl Thread: Bowl underdogs who outrush their opponent are 122-51-5 ATS since 1980. Its a good bet that we can pencil Navy in for more yards on the ground today. I'll gladly give this angle a try to start the bowl season.
Finally one last piece of intriguing motivation. Revenge aside, is Wake really all that stoked to be here? They had a January bowl game on their minds four weeks ago. Navy, meanwhile, will be ready to go. They could care less about the situation, venue, time of day (note, that 11 am start. Who responds better here, I wonder, the military men or the typical college boys? Gee, I''m not sure), foe or weather. Regardless, they will punch you in the mouth and run that triple option down your throat.
But, consider this bonus piece of motivation. Part of each team's pre bowl itinerary includes a visit to the US Naval Academy where they'll spend time with injured and wounded Naval troops. I am sure the moment will prove poignamt for the boys at Wake. However, something like that ought to inspire the Middies sky high. They will take the field for their fallen comrades. The Navy's senior leadership will be embarking themselves in a few months for active duty in the Persian Gulf. Spurred by the urging of their wounded buddies, they will relish the chance to take the field one more time. Wake might as well be wearing terrorist jerseys this morning.
What has changed since that first match-up? Not much, although a strong case can be made that Navy has improved a bunch since then as they got used to the sideline leadership and play calling of new coach Ken Niumataloo. Wake seems to have regressed this season. They cant score points and Navy's triple option will be too much for them to overcome. Navy has covered four straight bowls. Today will make five.
Good Luck. :weed:
