Bowl Games!!!!!!

[blgstocks]

Alright guys, had a profitable season so far and really looking to finish off a very exciting year.

Only have one play right off the bat. I cannot believe how high this total came out. I almost made it a 3 unit play but decidedto cut it down to 2 units, but only because of money management being my goal this year.

2 units on FSU/UCLA under 40.5

Both these teams give up less than 80 rushing yrds on average. That is a huge stat. FSU has a much more athletic secondary, but the way UCLA 2nd has been playing has been very impressive. Needless to say both of these teams have very sound defenses.

Both their offenses have been very weak to boot. UCLA has trouble moving the ball both on the ground and in the air. FSU has a big ? at QB and their OLine has led to few rushes yrds and even fewer throws without pressure. I look for this to be a great defensive battle.


That is all for right now.

Thoughts and opinions welcome as always

GL this month!

 

[blgstocks]

I bought UCLA up to -7 +112 for 1 unit and will look for a nice middle or a for sure profit. UCLA just had the win of their season, maybe even win of their decade. They are playing a FSU team that everyone has forgot about and nobody thinks is any good( i dont think they are that good either) But the point is, joe public will have a 3 weeks to hammer that ucla line right up to -7 and if it gets there that is win I will take FSU, if not then I still like UCLA in this one.

I took Fla/OSU over 48.5 for 1 unit. I just think there is too much offense on both sides of the football on this one. I also think we are going to see tedd ginn, troy smith, chris leak, tim teabow highlights on espn every night for a month, and which way do you think those "sharps" getting their gambling info from sportscenter are going to be pushing this line? Another good chance for middle I believe.

I took Tucky/Clemson Over 58 for 1 unit. I think Clemson will run all over Tucky in this one, like everyone else has this year. But I also think Tucky will be able to put up some points as well.

Clemson -11 +108 for 1 unit same reasons above. Only way neither of these hits is Clemson has trouble scoring on Kentucky, I just don' see that happening this season. Clemson is also very close to falling under the system play where a team rushes for twice the amount of yrds but allows half the amount of rushing yrds on def. Clemson needs to allow 7yrds less rush yrds on d for this to be a pure play but it is pretty damn close.

LSU -8 -105 for 1 unit
I think LSU has something ND does not and that is speed. This reminds me of OSU/ND last year. ND has had trouble against teams with good defenses as well. In fact I cant think of a team ND has covered that had a good defense.

I know its alot of game and I am sure I will be back with more, but I havent been betting much the past week or so, and there are just so many juicy lines and I know alot of them will move a couple of points in the meantime so I am confident i will be able to buy out of these if i come across very mean trends against these picks.

GL to you guys

 

[Hokie Fan]

blgstocks...

Just letting you know I will be driving to Georgia for the Chick fila bowl

Tech should beat Georgia....

Should be fun anyway..
Bought lowers, tailgate pass, pregame parrty pass...

Lets go Hokes..

Best team in the ACC by the way....

 

[blgstocks]

Have a great time in georgia Hokie. I think Hokies will win too. Should be a good game though. I just wish Hokies could have been playing with as much intensity qs they have now but for the whole season. They would probably be in NC game if that were the case.

If IFS and BUTs were candy and nuts though.....

Anyways have a great time at the game.

 

[blgstocks]

Troy St +7 (100) for 1 unit

Rice has a small edge in rush/pass yrds and a small edge on def pass yrds, but Troy has a sizeable advantage in defending the rush giving up only 137 to Rice 191 ry. Rice just beat utep, east carolina, and Tulsa, but they didn't beat any of those teams by more than 6 pts. The only similar opponent these two teams have played is FSU and Rice got smoked by 45 while troy lost by a TD.
Yes Rice has been very hot lately covering their last 5, but Troy has covered their last 4.

I just think these two teams are very close and all things roughly equal I will take the 7pt dog with the much better rushing defense any day.

 

[blgstocks]

Midd Tenn ST +11 for 1 unit

This is the only pure play double digit rushing dog of the bowl games. There are some that are in the +8.5 areas that mght move up but I will keep an eye on those.

MidTenn allows 117 ry to CM 131 ry a game. Mid Tenn also rushes for 137 yrds a game while CM rushes for 127 yrd a game. Not a huge difference but falls under a play.

Thoughts and opinions welcome
GL to all

 

[Kramer]

Stocks, nice pics :Yep: :Yep: :Yep:

Question?????

Is that the pictorial definition of a "cluster f$ck"

:mj07: :mj07: :mj07:

HOW BOUT THEM TROGANS :142smilie :142smilie

 

[blgstocks]

Im glad you enjoy the pics kramer, ive been waiting on those two for awhile. Figure I will be checking back in this thread for almost a month so I might as well have plenty of girls to look at.

 

[Kramer]

I'll take the one in the middle :142smilie :142smilie

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

I bought UCLA up to -7 +112 for 1 unit and will look for a nice middle or a for sure profit. UCLA just had the win of their season, maybe even win of their decade. They are playing a FSU team that everyone has forgot about and nobody thinks is any good( i dont think they are that good either) But the point is, joe public will have a 3 weeks to hammer that ucla line right up to -7 and if it gets there that is win I will take FSU, if not then I still like UCLA in this one.

I took Fla/OSU over 48.5 for 1 unit. I just think there is too much offense on both sides of the football on this one. I also think we are going to see tedd ginn, troy smith, chris leak, tim teabow highlights on espn every night for a month, and which way do you think those "sharps" getting their gambling info from sportscenter are going to be pushing this line? Another good chance for middle I believe.

I took Tucky/Clemson Over 58 for 1 unit. I think Clemson will run all over Tucky in this one, like everyone else has this year. But I also think Tucky will be able to put up some points as well.

Clemson -11 +108 for 1 unit same reasons above. Only way neither of these hits is Clemson has trouble scoring on Kentucky, I just don' see that happening this season. Clemson is also very close to falling under the system play where a team rushes for twice the amount of yrds but allows half the amount of rushing yrds on def. Clemson needs to allow 7yrds less rush yrds on d for this to be a pure play but it is pretty damn close.

LSU -8 -105 for 1 unit
I think LSU has something ND does not and that is speed. This reminds me of OSU/ND last year. ND has had trouble against teams with good defenses as well. In fact I cant think of a team ND has covered that had a good defense.

I know its alot of game and I am sure I will be back with more, but I havent been betting much the past week or so, and there are just so many juicy lines and I know alot of them will move a couple of points in the meantime so I am confident i will be able to buy out of these if i come across very mean trends against these picks.

GL to you guys

Penn St. doesn't have a good defense? That was a cover... Probably the only one...

 

[blgstocks]

After reading AR post of trends I have made some plays and 1 change to my existing plays. I am a believer in trends and stats so take this with a grain of salt.

I bought out my troy bet +7(100) when I read that - Favorites in bowl games involving Conference USA teams have been on a tear, going 15-1 SU & 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games.
So I got Rice -6(100) this morning for a no harm no foul along with a 1 pt chance at profit for no risk.


I am adding VT/Geo under 38 (-101) 1 unit for 5 reasons -
1. Peach Bowl- The representative of the ACC has gone 4-1 SU & ATS. The Under is 8-2.

2. Games with extremely low totals (37 or lower) have gone Under 62.5% of the time, 5-3, since ?92. No games currently under 37, the closest game is Georgia vs Virginia Tech (39).

3. VT has the best defense in the nation as of right now. And if you dont believe it, there is no denying they are top 5. Georgia's defense is not far off.

4. Both these offenses have struggled all year long, and I have had Georgia as one of the most overated teams this year (Iowa, USC being the other two).

5. These two teams are14-7-1 going under combined. And all this combined, with the knowledge that VT needs to stop Georgia in order to win and trends say VT will win, vegas says VT will win, and both trends and vegas say its going to be a real low scoring game as well. I do not know about VT winning, I think they do, but I am much more confident on the under.

FWIW I am 6-1 betting VT this year.

I was going to add to clemson and Midd Tenn ST but the dd dogs have been covering and that has kept me from adding to clem, Waiting for the lne to move my way with midd tenn st for me to add another unit.

Thanks again to AR for his time and effort gathering the trends and plays.

 

[ripken8]

good luck in the bowl games dan, I got my tickets, flight and room for the osu-fla game. can't wait, should be crazy...

 

[blgstocks]

This forum has been pretty dead lately. Cant wait until it starts picking back up.

I am adding another unit to Mid Tenn St +11.5(-119)
I really like this game, and I dont think this line is going to get much better.

Here are a couple more picks to go along with my theme for the month.

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

GL this bowl season!! Agree with some you have....but, I'll be on ND though. LSU just has NOT faired well in BIG games this season and ND WILL score points here...OVER might be the best play, but too many points there not to take ND I feel....I like UCLA too!!

 

[Marra]

Will Proctor from Clemson lost all confidence towards the end of the year, especially in that Maryland game were he couldn't hit a hooker in Vegas. Just FYI if you think they need him or not to cover, which they might not...

 

[blgstocks]

Will Proctor from Clemson lost all confidence towards the end of the year, especially in that Maryland game were he couldn't hit a hooker in Vegas. Just FYI if you think they need him or not to cover, which they might not...

:mj07: :mj07: :mj07:
I agree aboutProctor, but I honestly dont think they will need him to cover. I think they will just pound the ball all day, I am thinking this looks like Jags over Colts this weekend. But I think the month off will be good for Proctor.

Thanks for your input RS, I do agree with you that LSU has had some pretty poor performances in their big games but I think they got much better as the season wound down with wins at Tenn and Ark, both being pretty big games. I dont doubt for a second that ND will score points on LSU, but I honestly don't think ND will be able to stop LSU all day. I agree with you on the over of that game probably is the play.

GL on your plays guys

 

[Kramer]

I repeat, I'll take the one in the middle, ALL OF
THEM :mj07: :mj07:

 

[blgstocks]

Adding Okla -6 (-130) Phil Steele Preseason ranked #1 team in the nation has been quietly beating oppenents this season. Winning their last 8 games. 5 of which are in Bowls themselves. Okla only loss came against Texas where a forward pass was ruled a lateral and ran back in for a HUGE momentum change, but those are the breaks.

Boise Has won their last 8 games as well (11-0 on season) but their schedule was so much weaker with SJSU(which you can find me going on record here saying that they LOOKED like the worst team in the nation), Utah, and Nevada (who some, me included, might have bowed down to Boise for the sake of the conference and the program getting so much more money if they lost) needless to say I am not impressed with beating a bunch of nobodies who havent beaten anyone themselves. To be fair Boise beat Hawaii and Ore St soundly at the beginning of the year.

Why did Steele rate Okla #1 preseason? Their defense was flat out amazing coming into this season. They have not disappointed either. Sending 7 of their last 8 under. They are good against the pass and even better against the run. Running has been the only thing Boise has banked on this season with their star back Johnson coming in 2nd in avg ry a game, but again look who he is doing this against.

All in All I like Oklahoma, they have the defense to shut down Boise and should be able to score on an untested Boise D.

Purdue/Marylnd Over 52 Garbage defenses vs very capable offenses with something to play for. Not much of a writeup on this one, just think Maryland is underated offensively playing in the tough D conference of ACC, and I think both defenses are below avg.

Both plays for 1 unit

GL to all.

 

[DeadPrez]

good luck w/ the bowl games BLG :toast:

 

[#cruncher]

LSU/Notre Dame

LSU/Notre Dame

I probably won't be playing it but I think the Sugar is going to mean a lot more to Notre Dame than LSU...even if it is in the Tigers backyard...and sometimes that's the best place to sneak up on the better team?

Throw me in that 'briar patch' said Burr Rabbit!!!...nice pics stocks...might need to have an oxygen bottle and wheel chair handy tho :com: