Boxing 04/27 - 04/29

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LordoftheLunch

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Early odds:


John Watson -300
Jason Cook +250

Tony Bellew -475
Danny McIntosh +450

Billy Joe Saunders -900
Tony Hill +800

Sam Webb -250
Matthew Hall +200

Bernard Hopkins +300
Chad Dawson -350
 
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Habecki

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Cashed in, somewhat fortunately, the first time round and will bet it again.

Dawson by stoppage. Old man Hopkins overdue for a beating. imo he clearly feigned injury the first time and quit. This doesn't necessarily mean he fears Chad (because he pulled this exact stunt against Allen) and is afraid to fight him but I think he knows the end is near. The stunt gives him another payday and he probably thought he could rationalize avoiding Dawson and getting a bigger payday with Cleverly.

Anyways I think Dawson will be too much for Hopkins to contain. No doubt he will try to ugly it up and clench himself to a 12 round decision loss which he will contest as controversial no matter what. But I feel Dawson will at some point time up Hopkins bull rushes. Unlike a Pascal who has a limited arsenal Dawson can throw a variety of punches and has better timing/technique. Given the history between the two I think Chad will make a concerted effort to finish off Hopkins if the opportunity presents itself. Notice Hopkins was hurt in the final round of his last fight with Pascal so I don't think his punch resistance at his age is maybe what is was.

4/5-1 for the stoppage for Dawson and 3-1 for fight not going distance. 12 rounds without incident could be asking a lot for that price. Injury/dq/cuts/ko all in play.
 
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LordoftheLunch

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Dawson straight should be a winner I think he is more or less better in every regard vs Bhop, but at -300... hmmm

Fight not the distance at around +300 or D. inside at +500 look like more value... BUT if nothing "unnormal" happens D. will win by Dec.

hmmm not easy to bet this one, the only thing I know is that I am not going to take the OVER ;)
 
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Habecki

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Watched footage of Bellew and McIntosh. To be short I find it hard to imagine McIntosh lasting 12 rounds with Bellew. Cleverly outclassed McIntosh on his way to stopping him in the 7th and in his last fight McIntosh again showed his terrible punch resistance as he fell to a German light hitter in a rather pathetic ending.

Bellew hits pretty hard and attacks the body as good as the head. McIntosh has some pop himself but his punches are loopy and he often loses his balance after throwing. Bellew does everything better imo. And I'm a little shocked with how bad a chin McIntosh seems to have. Has an amateurish look about him in the sense of his preparation and fitness.

To boot this fight was pushed back a couple weeks because McIntosh said he had a chest infection. Given the impression I get from him there's a good chance that was/is bs and he's setting up an excuse to the loss that awaits him. Outside chance McIntosh lands something so maybe half and half with the Under 9.5 rounds and Bellew by stoppage.

Bottom line I think Bellew wins inside the distance. Wouldn't shock me if it happens in the first few rounds.
 
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Habecki

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Anybody have an opinion on the Fortuna/Evans bout?

I watched the Fortuna/Roman fight and Fortuna looks pretty legit. Fast hands/feet, lets his hands go enough and has good power. Still a little raw as he has no inside game at all, just holds, and sometimes gets reckless and will trade bombs. Chin still untested as well. But if he doesn't get knocked out I find it hard to see him getting outboxed.

Can't find much footage of Evans except a round against Lucero.
 
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LordoftheLunch

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Habecki said:
Watched footage of Bellew and McIntosh. To be short I find it hard to imagine McIntosh lasting 12 rounds with Bellew. Cleverly outclassed McIntosh on his way to stopping him in the 7th and in his last fight McIntosh again showed his terrible punch resistance as he fell to a German light hitter in a rather pathetic ending.

Bellew hits pretty hard and attacks the body as good as the head. McIntosh has some pop himself but his punches are loopy and he often loses his balance after throwing. Bellew does everything better imo. And I'm a little shocked with how bad a chin McIntosh seems to have. Has an amateurish look about him in the sense of his preparation and fitness.

To boot this fight was pushed back a couple weeks because McIntosh said he had a chest infection. Given the impression I get from him there's a good chance that was/is bs and he's setting up an excuse to the loss that awaits him. Outside chance McIntosh lands something so maybe half and half with the Under 9.5 rounds and Bellew by stoppage.

Bottom line I think Bellew wins inside the distance. Wouldn't shock me if it happens in the first few rounds.
Click to expand...

Not the distance / B. inside looks good to me. :toast:
 
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Habecki

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THE_THONG said:
a writer that has followed fortuna career says to unload on fortuna
Click to expand...

I think I may know who you are referring to. Initial reaction was that the betting line is too low, I was thinking more of a -250/-300 type line. Unless he gets stopped I can't see him losing.


And whats up with the Seth Mitchell/Witherspoon line? Almost -1000 for Mitchell??? I knew he would be favored and probably deservedly so but my word. Similar type of feeling I had to the Abril/Rios line, its either way off or I'm way off. Seth Mitchell is vastly overrated imo and is going nowhere. His best win last outing against Timur was nice but Timur wasn't showing a lot and was talking about retirement before the bout anyways. Not to mention despite catching Timur and no doubt stunning him the stoppage was premature. No saying if Mitchell would go on to dominate or not.

Found 8-1 at a Euro book and will bet over rounds as well. I think Witherspoon can make this a competitive fight.
 
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Habecki

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Just watched footage of Denis Grachev vs Biosse. This is going to be a horrible mismatch, unless Grachev has an iron chin there is no way this fight goes the distance.
 
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Habecki

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Good start to the weekend, Bellew totally dominated McIntosh. Only surprised how much resistance McIntosh had, was getting caught with almost everything Bellew threw.
 
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flickavic

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MY PLAYS

MY PLAYS

Fortuna -170 Straight

Oosthuizen -600/ Sillakh ISD -180 Parlay

Sillakh -1500/Fortuna -170/Oosth -600/Del Valle-600 parlay..

Good Luck guys :popcorn2
 
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