Frank, saw some McCall stuff in your thread, hope ya don't mind me adding an opinion here.....
Betting on a mental case - literally.
OK, I'm probably the one who needs his head examined but I am going to bet on a tried and true mental case - Oliver McCall.
And in a further bit of insanity I am laying 2-1 (bad/late buy, this was available for -175 earlier.)
McCall you may or not remember is the guy who had a mental breakdown in the ring in his rematch vs. Lewis.
He's had 18 fights since then, losing only once - a decision to DaVarryl 'Touch of Sleep' Williamson (current mandatory challenger to International Boxing Federation heavyweight champion Chris Byrd).
I've met Darryl a few times - nice guy, weird style. Throws a right that has a kink in its' delivery but has power in it. No shame in a loss to him.
Not a lot of quality in the 17 wins though, with the biggest name being Henry the Hugger Akiwande, best known for a DQ for holding Lewis for 5 rounds.
Looks like McCall is being used for his name, and the freak factor attached to it, sticking around and being positioned by Don King for maybe one more shot at the heavyweight title in the 3 Ring Circus of no talents that represent that class currently.
His opponent is Przemyslaw Saleta.
I'm tempted to bet against him for that name alone.
For a valid reason to lay 2-1 though all I need to see is his recent history of non-fighting.
In Oct. of 2002 he was KO'd.
He waited 6 months to fight again, in April of 2003 he got knocked down 3 times in the 1st round and announced afterwards he had retired.
He didn't fight again until April of '05 when he won a 6 round decision over a stiff.
The guy has spent the last 10 years fighting over in Europe, when he wasn't busy being a Polish TV star, and now he comes to the Windy City to fight Chicago-born McCall.
With the exception of the breakdown vs Lewis, which we can throw out as a non-fight, McCall has never been KO'd, despite being in the ring with guys like Lewis, Williamson, Buster Douglas, Orlin Norris, Bruce Seldon and Tony Tucker in their prime.
Anytime you can get to the scorecards and you have the Don on your team it's a good thing.
He's a recovering drug addict, but I'm supporting him here.
Take the active fighter over the guy who retired,
take the guy with the name value for future consideration/promotions in the weak heavyweight division,
take the King guy over the foreigner,
take McCall, lay the juice.
PS - I also have one other theory I use. I base it on a guy I know. Lousy personality, always broke and not shy about bumming for freebies, 4 foot tall, heavy set, etc. - you get the picture.
Dates a smoking cocktail waitress for 2 years now.
Whenever he bets we pray he plays a single event and not a parlay so we can all fade him.
I base this on the "you only get so much luck in your life and he's used all of his up on getting her" theory.
Laugh if you will but we clean up regularly fading him.
How does this apply here?
Saleta is divorcing one bunny from Playboy and set to marry another. 'Nuff said.