Boxing 1/29/05 BEST BET

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +4.55 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 3-0 +2.75
.5 unit plays: 1-3 -1.8
Dogs: 4-3 +1.6

1/29/05

Gatti over Leija -500 2 UNITS (winner)
Gatti wins inside distance -130...lay 1 to win .75 (winner)
Gatti wins in rounds 4-6 +585...lay .15 to win .9 (winner)
Gatti wins in rounds 1-3 +1000...lay .1 to win 1 (loser)

Ouma over Jantuah -160 1/2 unit (winner)

Wonjongkam-Komatsu over 9.5 -125 1/2 unit (loser)

Parlay
Wonjongkam -440 / Larios -450...lay 1 to win .5 (winner/pending)

Dieppa-Sanchez under 11.5 +220...lay .2 to win .45 (winner)

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Gatti-Leija is a total mismatch. I played Leija over Bojado at +450 (posted at madjacks) due to Boj's lack of serious training. I won that bet but it was obvious that Bojado sustained an injury early in the fight and couldn't get off after that. Bojado was dominating and landing much bigger shots, hell he put Leija down in the 2nd round.

Gatti is bigger, stronger, and just plain better than Bojado. And Gatti's much bigger, much stronger, and extremely better than Leija. The -500 is a very soft line and it moved right after I played it...now at -535.

Bojado-Leija opened around -600

Gatti-Leija opens at -500 ???

We are getting a gift line here due to Leija's fluke win over Bojado. Anyone that saw that fight knows exactly what I'm talking about. I saw an interview with Gatti and he says he will go right at the older Leija (38). That is the perfect strategy as Leija doesn't have enough power to keep Gatti off him.

Gatti has a 3 " height advantage, a 3" reach advantage, and a 6 year age advantage. After Gatti weighs in he will gain 15 pounds as usual and will be the much bigger guy.

Like I said this is a total mismatch as Gatti will walk right through Leija.

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[BOXLOCKS]

Gatti is up to -750 at 5dimes and WSEX but you can still get him at -500 at sportsbetting

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[hardcorecap]

Box, Gatti should overpower Lejia early and take control. I love Gatti, so I cant lay a number like that, just because of a freak thing like a headbut or lucky shot, as Gatti can cut and swell easily and badly. I will wait for TKO prop.. Good luck buddy

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Gatti-Leija under 10.5 -130 1/2 unit

I added a few thoughts on this fight in my 1/3 thread.

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[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

1/29
Ouma over Jantuah -160 1 unit

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[BOXLOCKS]

The following is part of my 1/3 thread, it further explains why I loaded up on Gatti at -500...

Kawashima went from a -125 favorite to +125 dog by fight time, a lot of bettors lost money on the contraversial decision but they had to know going in that the fight was in Japan and Kawa had the belt. Most of the time the location, promoter, belt, and politics can have as much influence on the scorecards as the fight. Its sh*t like that, combined with sh*t like Judah-Corley, Agustus-Burtan, and Cambell-Peden (sorry gw) that makes me shy away from playing sides in boxing.

If I'm leery of playing sides in boxing, why would I play Gatti at -500 over Leija?
I'm glad I asked that question, and the answer is...

All of the possible influences I mentioned above are in Gatti's favor here. The fight is in his back yard, hosted by his promoter, with his belt on the line, and a big PPV fight with Mayweather hanging in the balance. Sound familiar? The difference between this fight and the DLH-Sturm fight is huge though. DLH was stepping up in weight and fought a bigger, taller, longer, and younger fighter who had the belt. And he still won due to the politics involved. In this case Gatti is the bigger, stronger, taller, longer, younger, and better fighter...AND he has the influence and politics in his favor...-500???
I had to load up on him! I think Gatti will stop Jeija in the early rounds but if not there's nothing to worry about. With everything on Gatti's side, there's no way Leija wins a decision here, even if he deserves it.

I read a preview of the Gatti-Leija fight in the most popular boxing magazine and noticed that they never mentioned Bojado's injury in the early rounds that kept him from throwing combinations. Nor did they mention that Bojado dominated the first two rounds before sustaining the injury. The writer let some truth slip out in the opening paragraphs by saying something like...'Gatti could overwhelm Leija with his size, power, and skill by the middle rounds'... but thats it. After that he tried to convince you that Leija is a dangerous opponent, he shouldn't be taken lightly, and this will be a very good fight. My point is...don't use these magazine articles to cap fights, they're just trying to promote the fight and create interest in boxing. I have no problem with that, just don't put your money on it.

Buddy McGirt was Bojado's trainer for the Leija fight so he knows exactly what Bojado injured when he twice whispered into his ear in the corner between rounds. McGirt knows that Bojado was dominating Leija prior to the injury and he knows Gatti will dominate him also. With a huge payday against Mayweather on deck, no one in the Gatti camp would let him fight Leija if they weren't positive about the outcome.

Gatti is now -800 at 5dimes

Under is moving everywhere

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[BOXLOCKS]

While I still like the Gatti-Leija under 10.5 and played it personally at Pinnacle, the prop lines just came out at 5dimes and they opened a very generous price on a Gatti stoppage. So I'm changing my play to...

Gatti wins inside distance -130 1/2 unit

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[gardenweasel]

i did gatti inside the distance(-130) with a leija hedge(+535 or something around there)......obviously winning more if leija pulls the upset...

if this goes the distance...neither guy gets cut....or hurt...i`ll be surprised...

would think that gatti`s size will eventually be the difference.....i hope he`s aggressive..by fight time,he`ll be the much bigger guy...

i hope gatti remembers his body work from the dorin fight....because leija knows all the tricks...

g.l.

 

[gardenweasel]

just played sinan samil sam and larios in a parlay...laid around -160.....

i tried to find a few fights that looked as though there was little chance of an upset......

sam is very strong...clay-bey isn`t usually in great shape....elicer castillo stopped him in 9.....sam is durable and a favorite in germany....and a pretty tough hombre...vs this level opposition...clat bey will come in around 245 or 250...and won`t be stronger than sam...he will have serious trouble getting a decision...if it gets to the cards...which it may not..

mccullough is very long in the tooth...and doesn`t have the power to stop larios....larios will outwork him.....

just a heads up....i would have e mailed you but my e-mail sucks right now....

g.l.

 

[hardcorecap]

I have to get a 5 dimes account, because I love that Gatti inside the distance line. He is much bigger and stronger than just about every 140 lb fighter out there. I think He is extremey gifted offensively, but he doesnt have the D to be a true world class fighter. That being said. Leija will make him work, but I can see him getting cut up and taking some serious body shots. I can see the ref stepping in at some point.... I think some people forget how big Gatti really is. Bruseles looked alot bigger than Mayweather tonight, and Gatti would drarf him, as he weighs 150-155 when the bell rings. I think you have a very solid bet here

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Laying 1 unit on Gatti inside distance

Gatti wins in rounds 4-6 +585 lay .1 to win .6

Dieppa-Sanchez under 11.5 +220 lay .2 to win .45

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[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Gatti wins in rounds 1-3 +1000 lay .1 to win 1 unit

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[badjab]

good points Box...I'm on Gatti by KO as well

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Wonjongkam-Komatsu over 9.5 -125 1/2 unit

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[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Parlay
Wonjongkam -440 / Larios -450...lay 1 to win .5


Changing Ouma to a 1/2 unit play

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[damien4191]

I just watched the final press conference for teh Leija/Gatti fight from yesterday. Gatti was very moody and was wearing several heavy coats. Could be having problems making weight. When he's had problems making weight in the past it caused him to cut and sweal up easily.

 

[gardenweasel]

damien...that was a very astute comment.....and i don`t mean that condescendingly....dehydration can result in excessive swelling and cutting....excellent point....


the counterpoint is that i`m hoping(for box`s big play),that he has time to rehydrate prior to the bout.....he`s been able to do it up `till now...

it`s scary....but,gatti may weight as high as 155 or 160 by fight time!!!!!

he will be enormous in there...

some say he weighed around 160 when he stepped in with joey gamache in 2000.....and gamache literally almost lost his life....there were shenanigans on the scale prior to that fight,though....some think the scales were rigged and gatti was a full 7 lbs. over the weight at the weigh in....

lets hope that doesn`t happen here...

 

[damien4191]

I remember that Gamache fight, and it looked like a man vs a child in there. If this is a fight where cutting and swelling is going to be a problem for Gatti then he could be in trouble because his usual cutman, Joe Souza will be working the corner of Leija. Something to think about before placing a bet on the fight.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Gatti weighed in at 140

I knew about the cutman issue prior to placing my wager, still like Gatti. I'm sure his cutman will be replaced with someone just as capable. Too much money on the line in this fight, they will get one of the best in the business I'm sure.

Line on Gatti in rounds 1-3 prop went from +1000 to +580, thats a huge move.

Gatti in rounds 4-6 went from +585 to +410

Fight starts round 7 went from -310 to -215

However, Gatti inside distance is still at -160??? I might have to hit it again while it still has great value.
The line will be -200 by fight time.

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[BOXLOCKS]

Dieppa came through with an 11th round stoppage to cap off a HUGE night