Thanks my man, I too feel an excellent year coming and you know what happens when we agree on something...
After Buffalo blew my ML parlay with Denver, I parlayed Denver -450 with Parra -310 to chase what I lost and it came through for me. I knew Parra was the much better guy and I wanted to play him straight at -270 but with the fight being in Japan I couldn't lay the wood.
Navarro-Kawashima
We had yet another contraversial decision when one judge didn't give Kawashima a single round while the other two judges had him winning the fight! The scores were 120-109 for Navarro, and 115-114 - 115-113 for Kawashima. The judges were from Canada, Mexico, and Thailand in that order (respectively). From what I've read Navarro beat the sh*t out of him and dominated the entire fight, thus the 120-109 scorecard. So far all of my information has come from Navarro's promoter, and the Mexican judge gave it to Kawa instead of the Mexican-American, so who knows.
Kawashima went from a -125 favorite to +125 dog by fight time, a lot of bettors lost money on the contraversial decision but they had to know going in that the fight was in Japan and Kawa had the belt. Most of the time the location, promoter, belt, and politics can have as much influence on the scorecards as the fight. Its sh*t like that, combined with sh*t like Judah-Corley, Agustus-Burtan, and Cambell-Peden (sorry gw) that makes me shy away from playing sides in boxing.
If I'm leery of playing sides in boxing, why would I play Gatti at -500 over Leija?
I'm glad I asked that question, and the answer is...
All of the possible influences I mentioned above are in Gatti's favor here. The fight is in his back yard, hosted by his promoter, with his belt on the line, and a big PPV fight with Mayweather hanging in the balance. Sound familiar? The difference between this fight and the DLH-Sturm fight is huge though. DLH was stepping up in weight and fought a bigger, taller, longer, and younger fighter who had the belt. And he still won due to the politics involved. In this case Gatti is the bigger, stronger, taller, longer, younger, and better fighter...AND he has the influence and politics in his favor...-500???
I had to load up on him! I think Gatti will stop Jeija in the early rounds but if not there's nothing to worry about. With everything on Gatti's side, there's no way Leija wins a decision here, even if he deserves it.
I read a preview of the Gatti-Leija fight in the most popular boxing magazine and noticed that they never mentioned Bojado's injury in the early rounds that kept him from throwing combinations. Nor did they mention that Bojado dominated the first two rounds before sustaining the injury. The writer let some truth slip out in the opening paragraphs by saying something like...'Gatti could overwhelm Leija with his size, power, and skill by the middle rounds'... but thats it. After that he tried to convince you that Leija is a dangerous opponent, he shouldn't be taken lightly, and this will be a very good fight. My point is...don't use these magazine articles to cap fights, they're just trying to promote the fight and create interest in boxing. I have no problem with that, just don't put your money on it.
Buddy McGirt was Bojado's trainer for the Leija fight so he knows exactly what Bojado injured when he twice whispered into his ear in the corner between rounds. McGirt knows that Bojado was dominating Leija prior to the injury and he knows Gatti will dominate him also. With a huge payday against Mayweather on deck, no one in the Gatti camp would let him fight Leija if they weren't positive about the outcome.
Gatti is now -800 at 5dimes
Under is moving everywhere
gl bl
