Boxing 10/22 - 10/23

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YTD Total: +8.5 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 11-4 +2.1
.5 unit plays: 51-22 +4.4
Dogs: 13-31 even

10/22
Ponce De Leon over Lucero -415 1/2 unit (winner)
Arnaoutis-Feliciano over 11.5 -125 1/2 unit (loser)
Feliciano over Arnaoutis +235 lay .1 to win .25 (loser)

10/23
Harris-Urkal over 10.5 -306 1/2 unit (loser)

gl bl
 
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Adding

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Ponce De Leon over Lucero -415 1/2 unit

Changing the Harris over to a half unit play due to the heavy wood. I still really like the play, just being careful.

gl bl
 

gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
i was looking at arnaoutis/feliciano over 11.5(-130)......saw arnaoutis a few months back get jobbed vs an undefeated latino juan urango (a draw)......urango was a substantial favorite...supposedly the real prospect....and i think arnaoutis gave him a boxing lesson.....he `s tall...lefty....a boxer....with a solid chin....

i think feliciano is a straight ahead guy that wings long,wide punches.......he keeps coming...that`s why he got stopped by abdulaev...abdulaev has a long amateur background and is a strong guy..he`s skilled.....he had to much skill for feliciano...walking in the way feliciano does....

arnaoutis doesn`t have abdulaev`s power....he will move and outbox feliciano...

can he wear feliciano out?....i doubt it...feliciano may wear feliciano out...missing punches...lol....he is ,after all,blind... :shade:

wtf...-130 isn`t much to ask...

you could always take feliciano small as a hedge....i really don`t expect arnaoutis to stop feliciano...
 
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damien4191

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anyone else jump On Sharmba Mitcheell at +160? Who knows what Tszyu is like physically and mentall for this fight. Meanwhile Mitchell has been focused on this fight since it was first cancelled in March.
 

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Feliciano-Arnaoutis over 11.5 -125 1/2 unit
Feliciano over Arnaoutis +235 lay .1 to make .25

damien
I posted a play on Mitchell in my 11/6 - 11/13 thread, gl to us. Tzsyu is a great fighter and a huge puncher but Mitchell is an excellent boxer that can take a punch. Mitchell is exactly the kind of fighter you don't want to face coming off a two year layoff. I think Mitchell would have a good chance of beating him regardless of the layoff, if Tzsyu has any kind of ring rust at all he will be easily outboxed by Mitchell.

gw
You beat me to it. I just now finished capping the Feliciano fight and came up with the same thing. However...I didn't play Feliciano as a hedge, I played him because I think he has a decent shot at +235. The early line movement suggests I'm not the only one.

gl bl
 
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I think Harris will win, but that doesn't mean he will get the decision as they will be fighting in Germany again. The scores last time were 114-112 twice and 113-113, a majority decision for Harris. Urkal went down once in round 3 and Harris was deducted a point in the 8th.

Harris is the better fighter and he would win easily if the fight were anywhere but Germany.

I'm leaving the side alone and hitting the over hard as I think its a very solid play. Urkal has gone the distance with Kostya Tzsyu and just went the distance with Harris. Urkal has an excellent chin and absolutely no power, he has gone the distance in 9 of his last 10. Harris has some power but he has gone the distance in 5 of his last 6. Neither guy has been stopped.

gl bl
 
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gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
wtf happened with arnaoutis/feliciano?.......

i was watching the ufc.....then i popped over to the computer and saw that arnaoutis stopped feliciano .....

IN THE 1ST ROUND!!!....

LOL.....i saw arnaoutis fight on t.v.....and i also saw him in person at michael`s 8th avenue in glen burnie.....he couldn`t punch a lick...slick.....tough to hit......

i`m shocked....to put it mildly...
 

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Arnaoutas had gone the distance in his last 6 fights!

I taped the fight while watching the ufc's and just got done watching the replay. Feliciano got caught with a straight left hand halfway through the 1st round. He took a knee and an eight count and then got up only to get stuck with a left to the body just seconds later. He took a knee again and Arnaoutas hit him in ribs while he was down. The ref didn't do a damn thing about it. In the Jones-Griffen fight the ref dq'd Jones for the exact same thing. This time not only did the ref not dq Arn, he didn't even take a point, hell he didn't even warn Arn for the obvious infraction.

The way it looked Feliciano was going to be stopped in this fight regardless but the ref sure didn't help him out any. There should have been a point deduction and a 5 minute break but the ref obviously didn't do his job.

It's crazy how in the Jones fight he dropped Griffen and the ref just stood there waiting to see what happened next instead of telling Jones to stop or getting in the way. But when Jones hit him again he was automatically dq'd without warning.

In this fight the ref actually stepped in and said stop after Fel took a knee, but Arn. directly disobeyed the order and landed another body shot. Instead of dq'ing, taking a point, or warning Arn, the ref decided to act like it never happened.

Jones gets dq'ed but Arn. doesn't even get a warning? And Arn. was even told by the ref to stop before he threw the punch? How's that for consistency.

Like I said there's a good chance Fel. was going to be stopped regardless, I just think its horseshit that a fighter doesn't even get warned for doing something that has dq'd the likes of Roy Jones Jr.
 
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MayorgaFan

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Arnaotis...

Arnaotis...

Someone from Arnaotis's camp actually posts at maxboxing and mentioned they were working on his power. I kind of laughed it off and said it wouldn't matter he would win a dec. Afterall, Feliciano went 8 rounds with Abdullaev and took a whipping in that fight. He showed good durability in that fight. Maybe Abdullaev softened him up. I didn't bet the over but it seemed solid enough to play.
 

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Unbelievable

Harris stops Urkal 56 seconds into the 11th round.
All we needed was 34 more seconds to cash, oh well.

I'm thinking about playing Clinton Woods tomarrow, I was going to leave it alone if the Harris over cashed but...

I wonder what MayorgaFan thinks about the Woods fight?

I also wonder if MF played Mayorga over Trinidad?
 

MayorgaFan

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No...

No...

I didn't bet Trinidad-Mayorga. Despite my username I like Tito more than Mayorga. Not that it matters, I don't bet by who I like anyways. My 3 bets this weekend were Mbaye who I bet pretty big. I took him when he opened at pinny at +100 and took him again at -110. Arnaotis small, I figured he would outbox the limited Feliciano. After that win I decided I would put a small amount on Urkal this morning when he was +142 and lost that 1.

I don't have an opinion on Woods-Delisle because I don't know much about Delisle. I have seen Woods at least 5 times and he don't impress me. He looked pretty bad in his last fight against Johnson. Not just because he lost but because he looked very slow and lazy. Can't have an opinion on the fight though because I don't know much about Delisle. I know Woods isn't someone I would feel comfortable laying -400 on. If the Aussie is fit,has good endurance and has a solid chin, he could outwork Woods.
 

MayorgaFan

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Oh yeah and another thing. The fight is in Britain (which I am sure you know), but the British are pretty fair in judging fights. There are some exceptions but overall they are more fair than most European countries.
 

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Thanks for the input

From what I saw of the 1st fight, I thought Johnson outworked Woods but got scewwed by the judges. Johnson convincingly beat Woods in the second fight but only won by 115-113 on two of the judges scorecards, thats only 1 round from being a majority draw. I believe you when you say that Britain is fairer than most Euro countries but I still think the homefield advantage for Woods will play a big role in any of his fights.

IMO a homefield advantage doesn't mean the fight is fixed or that the judges are bias or incompetant. When you have 95% of the crowd cheering for one fighter, a judge can easily be swayed by the oohs and aahs that come everytime the hometown guy throws a punch.

I've seen Woods fight a few times and I'm not real impressed either but he claims he has made some dietary and training changes that will show up in this fight. That may or may not be worth considering, but one thing I know for sure is that Woods can't lose this fight if he expects to be taken seriously in the future.

Just two years ago DeLisle lost an eight round maj decision to Paul Smallman who is now 24-26-2 and has lost 10 of his last 13 fights since then. To DeLisle's credit he avenged the loss with a 11th round tko but Smallman has been stopped 4 times in the first 4 rounds since then so that wasn't a big accomplishment and that tells you how much power DeLisle has...none. Last year DeLisle was ko'd in the 5th round by fellow Aussy Danny Green, but Woods at 175 doesn't have neer the power of Green at 168 so you can't make much out of that loss.

DeLisle is 15-2-2, is 32 years old (like Woods), and is giving up 3 inches in height. He has never fought outside of Austrailia. I have already shown his losses, now lets look at some of his close calls...

12 round SPLIT decision in over Peter Manesis who was 6-0 at the time.

6 round DRAW and a 6 round SPLIT decision over Peter Ngateri who is now 9-6-2. DeLisle later won a CLOSE 12 round UD over Ngateri.

DeLisle has won 2 of his last 3 on opponent cuts stopping the fight, and he doesn't have one impressive win on his resume.

I'm considering playing Woods and the over as I don't see DeLisle having enough power to stop Woods who has a very good chin.
 
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