ive posted at length on fan forums so i dont want to reiterate everything, but jones' demeanor is making me seriously consider a wager.
in the tito fight we saw roy do something he's never done, which is make adjustments, and follow a gameplan. the roy of old was so good he could practice his cock fighting routines on world class competition. it seems like roy didnt realize he lost those gifts until after the 3rd tarver fight. against tito he clearly watched the winky fight and used the same style, rather than dancing and shooting lead right hands, he stayed close with a high guard and picked tito apart.
the man is an EXCELLENT predictor and analyst, and gives really detailed insight. it seems like more than ever he really tries to understand opponents and other boxers and visualize how match-ups will go down, rather than just assuming he'll whoop em on speed.
roy reminds me of vernon forrest in that they can't be bad guys. they cant be tough killer types, when they have that serious persona it tells you something is wrong. since tarver 3 roy has been smiling, laughing, and genuinely enjoyiong training camp, it took a lot of work to get this fight with joe. if roys heart wasnt in this, he could have given up before fighting in some cracktown in ohio.
the big crapshoot here is jones' stamina. against hanshaw and trinidad, we never knew how much energy roy had left, sicne he was cautious and well ahead on the cards. we all thoguht hop had no energy left, but we were wrong. roy could be in surpirisingly great condition, so rather than shining for a few moments while being oiutworked like we expect, he could in seven rounds and pull this thing out.
not worth a big play on either side imo. Jones still has hand reflexes, what he doesnt have is footspeed, combination punching, and willingness to exchange. his punches get there slower than his opponents, so he cant confidently swing with anybody.
i just see jones picking his spots here, controlling the distance, and landing effective punches compared to joe's volume. i see this panning out similar to the hop-calzaghe fight, where one fighter lands the cleaner, more damaging punches, but the other wins based on volume and perception.
