Boxing 11/12 - 11/13

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +11.3 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 13-4 +4.6
.5 unit plays: 55-24 +4.8
Dogs: 16-42 -.1

11/12 Dog
Siacca over Kessler +255 to win .25 (loser)

11/13
Byrd-McCline over 11.5 -170 1.5 units (winner)
Golata-Ruiz over 9.5 -135 1/2 unit (winner)
Rahman inside distance -155 1/2 unit (winner)

11/13 Dogs
Golata-Ruiz over 10.5 +111 lay .3 to win .35 (winner)
Golata over Ruiz +120 lay .2 to win .25 (loser)
Golata by decision +486 lay .1 to win .5 (loser)
Ruiz by decision +323 lay .15 to win .5 (winner)
McCline by decision +406 lay .1 to win .4 (loser)
Rahman by decision +499 lay .15 to win .75 (loser)
Williamson over McCall +105 to win .25 (winner)

11/13 lottery tickets
Meehan by decision +1486 lay .1 to win 1.5 (L)
Holyfield-Donald DRAW +1800 lay .05 to win .9 (L)
Golata-Ruiz DRAW +1877 lay .05 to win .95 (L)
Byrd-McCline DRAW +3050 lay .05 to win 1.5 (L)
Byrd by stoppage in 10-12 +1800 lay .1 to win 1.8 (L)

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding a few live dogs to the mix...

Siacca over Kessler +255 lay .1 to win .25

Golata by 12 round decision +390 lay .1 to win .4

Williamson over McCall +105 to win .25

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

A couple more...

McCline by 12 round decision +390 lay .1 to win .4

Ruiz by 12 round decision +350 lay .15 to win .5

gl bl

 

[hardcorecap]

I like ruiz by a 12 round decision. I think he wins that fight, and I think it goes the distance unless Golota does something dumb. I dont see that though.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Meehan by 12 round decision +1275 lay .1 to win 1.3

Meehan deserved to win a 12 round decision over Brewster so its entirely possible here. At +1275 how can you pass it up.

I was also looking at Beck over Barrett at +170 or so. Beck is promoted by DK which means he could win even if he loses. From what I've heard and read Beck is the real deal combining speed with a big right hand. Might be worth a shot, wish the fight wasn't in Barrett's backyard.

I cashed in big on Barrett over Guinn at +350 (and the over) but Guinn was very overrated and barely fought back in that fight.

Any thoughts fellas?

 

[gardenweasel]

i know next to nothing about beck.....he has been on the deck almost as much as popeye.....

lol...just kidding....i did notice that boxrec had him down at least 3 times vs dubious opposition......

but,barrett`s no great shakes...so,you may have something....the carl king involvement is a good thing if you can get to the cards....

those odds on a meehan decision are pretty wild...i`ll be surprised if it gets to the cards...but,at those odds,it would be like hitting the lottery...

as usual,i`ll be rooting for you.... best of luck....

 

[hardcorecap]

Only way Meehan wins is if he knocks him out. I actually think he is a decent fighter, he showed me some Ok skills against Brewester. But to be fair it was alot like hitting a heavybag, because Lamon didnt punch back. I think that Rahman has always fought to the level of Competition he has faced over the years. Better guys bring more out in him, like Sanders, and Tua, and Ruiz is a good fighter, but I hate to judge a guy on his performance aginst the Quiet man, because he is so diffucult to fight.

In my opinion, I think that Rahman learned from that fight, and I actually think he comes out hard and try to take him out quick, and not let Meehan get any confidence. If it starts to get into Round 6,7, and so on, then Meehans chances to get to him greatly increase.

Hasim has fought hard to get back to this position after his loss to Ruiz, and this is his last chance to impress. He has the skills, he just needs to use them.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

At the odds of +1275 I really don't need to explain myself beyond the fact that its a possible outcome.

Like you said if this gets into round 6 or 7 and so on, then Meehan's chances to get him increase. I think if it gets into round 6 or 7 Meehan has a great chance to outwork Rahman and get a decision (+1275!) And I played Meehan straight at +310 just in case he knocks him out. I also played the under 7.5 at +120 as a hedge.

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

here`s a link to the kessler/siaca weigh-in photos....and the heavyweight weigh in photos.....

http://www.teampalle.dk/composite-275.htm


http://www.hboppv.com/events/ruiz_golota/t1.shtml

 

[gardenweasel]

honestly....

honestly....

why is mccall favored over williamson?....all the inactivity....he`s fought 2 stiffs since 2001......in 3 years he`s fought 2 punching bags......and why is the o/u only 6.5?

he`s almost 40 years old....he`s basically a head case....

he can punch...no doubt....but,aside from the mesi debacle,williamson has been fairly durable...and competitive....

and the over 6.5?...-115?...why not a small play on the over...mccall has never been down in the amateurs or the pro`s.......he sparred over 200 rounds with tyson and never hit the canvas... .i expect williamson to box.....not just stand in front of an old mccall and swap leather....


williamson`s chin has been disparaged since he made a major mistake vs mesi...but he`s already won a fight with a broken jaw...hung in with klitschko...and gotten off the canvas a few times...the guy`s no coward...and he`s smart...with an excellent,long left jab....

as i said,mccall can punch...but he`s moving way up in class..his last significant fight was in 2001 when he was behind akinwande and pulled out a stoppage in the 10th....

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Pinnacle has the over 6 at -114

Olympic has the over 6.5 at +100

It might be worth a shot. To be honest I have all my money tied up in all of my accounts right now so I would have to deposit more to get down on it. I'll have to think it "over".

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

A few thoughts on the weigh-ins...

McCline, Byrd, Rahman, Meehan, Golata, and Holyfield all looked to be in excellent condition.
Donald looks old and Ruiz looks like...well...Ruiz. I'm sure he is in great shape but you can't tell by looking at him.


Rahman looked very good and weighed in at 232!
Thats 15 pounds lighter than he's weighed in his last 6 fights! Here's Rahman's weight by opponent in the last 2 years...

247 vs Terrance Lewis (7/04)
248 vs Rob Calloway (6/04)
257 vs Mario Cawley (4/04)
255 vs Al Cole (3/04)
246 vs John Ruiz (12/03)
259 vs David Tua (3/03)

Meehan looked very good also but he might be in for an asskicking if Rahman comes to fight.

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

rahman can suck...and -300+ is scary...so i parlayed him with the mccline/byrd over awhile back.......

don`t know why brewster froze vs meehan...i saw enough to think that rahman should have enough to get this....if he wants to continue his career....

but in all honesty,the heavyweight division is a mess...and every fight is a crapshoot....

g.l.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Changes

Changes

The interviews and weigh-in photos have changed my mind on the Rahman-Meehan fight.

Instead of playing the under I'm going to take Rahman inside distance at -155 for a half unit and playing Rahman by 12 round dec at +487 small as a hedge. Also playing Meehan by 12 round dec at +1275 as its very possible he outworks and outboxes Rahman while avoiding the big right hand, great odds.

Making my play on the Golata-Ruiz over 9.5 a half unit play as I also have the over 10.5 at +110.

Making my play on the Byrd-Mccline over 11.5 for 1.5 units as Mccline has only gone 12 rounds once. That was against Lance Whitaker who doesn't keep the pace of Byrd. McCline is a very big man and he could tire.

However
McCline looks like he is in excellent shape and this is his title shot so I dought he will tire. Byrd has absolutly no power and great chin, McCline has very little power for a man his size and has agreat chin so barring any cuts or fatigue this should easily go the distance.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Siacca quit on his stool between the 7th and 8th round. Looks like Kessler is the real deal. I would love to see Calzaghe fight Green or Kessler next year.

Btw, I'm pulling my play on Meehan straight and going with the decision prop as I don't see Meehan stopping the new and improved Rahman. He could outbox him though.

gl bl

 

[hardcorecap]

Rahman looks in sick shape guys. Im really shocked. I get the feeling by the grin on his face that he plans on taking him out.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I here ya

Adding
Holyfield-Donald DRAW +1750 lay .05 to win .85

Since its not possible for both fighters to lose this fight, the most logical outcome has to be a 120-120 draw...right?

Seriously though
This fight 'should' go the distance and it should be a very close fight. I think most rounds will be very hard to score and it could very possibly come down to the last round. I have to slightly favor Holyfield here but with the King factor on Donalds side the two could cancel each other out for a contraversial draw.

I'm already taking a long shot on Meehan by 12 round decision, might as well scratch another ticket on a Holy-Dony draw.

Notice the odds are very close to the same...crazy.

gl bl

 

[hardcorecap]

I wouldnt be shocked at a draw here at all. might be the best play.... I really couldnt picka winner here... I do think that Holyfield will take it to him early, but he will have a problem late if Donald fights with some guts

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Propositions just came out at Pinnacle, made a few adjustments to my plays above and added a couple more lottery tickets to the mix.

My final plays for tonight are as posted above.

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

i gotta open an account at pinny....i put a tiny bet on the meehan by decision prop.....just for laughs...

this is gonna be an enjoyable card......expect the unexpected....