boxing 11/16

gardenweasel

el guapo
Forum Member
Jan 10, 2002
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"the bunker"
1)a hedge bet---guty espadas+220.......bones adams by decision+125.......bones coming up to 126 from 122....he has never been considered a big puncher....a nice boxer-counter puncher....he showed some cracks against paulie ayala`s pressure...bones likes to fight at his own pace,countering and scoring when he wants to...ayala forced him to fight at a much faster pace than he`s used to...guty espadas is a former champ that has hit a rough patch in his career...he actually was screwed out of a decision recently vs eric morales....boxers do give him trouble...he is around 3 to 4 inches taller than bones with a like reach advantage.....he has a solid chin and if guys like morales can`t take him out,i doubt that adams will...if bones wins,i`m fairly confident it will be by decision...there is a shot that bigger and stronger,harder punching espadas could overwhelm bones...if espadas forces the action and is willing to take some shots to do his own damage,he has a chance to win... that is my hope...espadas is not tremendously fast or clever,but he works and is very tough...if he doesn`t win and bones gets the nod,+25....if we get lucky and espadas comes to fight,we win a fairly decent piece of change....


if morales goes to -300,i might take a shot...he`s not the same fighter pre-barrera....but i think he`s still to talented for smaller,light punching ayala...i will never lay over 3-1 odds...just not a smart wager with the potential for cuts and disqualifications....more on this later in the week...g.l.
 

TheShrimp

Registered User
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Jan 15, 2002
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I'd always kind of thought of Morales and Barrera in the top tier with Ayala and Tapia in the next tier.

This fight, like Barrera/Tapia, contains a younger guy with a better reach against an older guy. However, the age difference isn't as great in this one. Also, Morales has had more , and arguably tougher, professional fights.

I was happy with the 1.28 (7/25) on Barrera, but I'm not so happy with laying it on Morales.

Ayala is a guy who just wins fights. He's 34-1 with 12 KO's. His only loss was in Japan to a Japanese guy, on a technical decision.

He's always well conditioned and with the tough fights Morales has had lately, one wonders if Ayala has a strong advantage in the later rounds.

Should Ayala really be a 3-1 dog here?

I don't have a strong recommendation here, but if I'm shelling out $40 for the PPV, might as well put $25 on Ayala to win. He hasn't been really taking guys out like he should so I'm wary, but I think that's where I'm coming down here.

Also, looking at laying the juice on "will go 10.5" -175. Every fight between morales/barrera/ayala/tapia had gone 12. Ayala's last 7 fights have gone the distance.

I'm looking for a more cautious Morales here, and even if I didn't expect that I could see it going the distance.

GL
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
Forum Member
Jan 10, 2002
40,573
226
63
"the bunker"
strangely enough

strangely enough

i may play morales via stoppage if the odds go up....very small though...morales claiming he`s coming to throw down and does not care if he gets hit as long as he lands his shots...he seems intent on overpowering ayala and showing up barrera`s win over tapia...that seems to be his motivation...still waiting for some odds,though...not a big play...g.l.
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
Forum Member
Jan 10, 2002
40,573
226
63
"the bunker"
i had to laugh

i had to laugh

read an article about the weigh in indicating that morales looked skinny and ayala looked buff.....morales IS skinny....alexis arguello was skinny....bob foster was skinny....these guys were all wirey and got tremendous leverage on their punches....waiting for this to hit the magic -300...will not go above it....may play morales by k.o. small if at all...my hedge bet with espadas-adams is my play tonight....g.l.
 
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