Boxing 11/18 - 11/20

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +13.4 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 13-4 +4.6
.5 unit plays: 59-24 +6.8
Dogs: 17-45 even

11/19
Skelton-Long over 9.5 -105 1/2 unit (winner)
Dog
Rowland over Mendoza +180 lay .2 to win .35 (winner)

11/20
Wright over Mosely -245 1/2 unit (winner)
Wright-Mosley over 11.5 -265 1/2 unit (winner)
Wright by decision -120 1/2 unit (winner)

Dog
Mosley by decision +483 lay .1 to win .5 (loser)

Lottery Tickets
Wright wins in rounds 10-12 +1400 lay .1 to win 1.4 (L)
Mosely-Wright DRAW +2300 lay .05 to win 1.15 (L)

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

i kinda have a thing for tokunbo olajide.....the odds were a tad stiff at -255 or 260.......so i parlayed him with perez........getting a better than even return on the bet.....

gardner is a difficult guy to fight.....very unorthodox....olajide is an excellent technician with power....and gardner doesn`t have a real height advantage....olajide,imo,could become a real factor in the division....

perez impressed me vs felix machado......but,he`ll have to win on enemy soil here......sikali has some quality wins.......this one might be the one that bites me....

g.l.

 

[gardenweasel]

adding luan krasniqi-140 over timo hoffman....and over 7.5 at -165.....some euro friends chiming in....i kinda liked both of these myself...

they also liked dean phillips at+155 as a live dog vs kevin bennett on the 19th.....not sure about this one...the guy is a friend of phillips` and might be a bit biased....he says phillips has totally re-dedicated himself in his comeback....bennett`s fought much better opposition,though....be careful...don`t get hurt with this one...
just passing the info on.....

remeber,there are no locks....there`s lox.....but,no locks...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Thanks for the info

I capped all the fights pinnacle put up yesterday but 5dimes didn't have anything new up. They must have hung them today while I was at work. I hate it when that happens as its very important to get the opener even if you don't play it. In this case it was extremely important as the lines have already moved in a big way.

Anyway
I like the over in the Krasniqi-Hoffman fight even at -240. I think Krasniqi will win, if I could still get him at -140 I would play him but its -185 now and I don't like laying wood on heavyweight sides. Way too many upsets in the division.

The Phillips-Bennett fight looks like a crap shoot to me...side and total.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Mosley by 12 round decision +410 lay .1 to win.4
(posted this yesterday in hardcore's thread)

Mosley-Wright DRAW +2300 lay .05 to win 1.15

The Wright-Mosley over 11.5 went down to -276 at pinny so I put a little more on it.

Wright went down to -230, but once again I waited to see if it would keep going down and now its back up to -248 :cursin:

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

agree on the phillips/bennett bout...i have no personal knowledge of either guy.....strictly going with a very small play on my friend`s say so.......

and as i said,might be some personal involvement....

i can see the perez-sikali/mashaba/bungu overs.....touched `em myself....let`s hope 37 year old bungu doesn`t fade...he hasn`t shown that he can`t do 12...but,his days are growing short.....

g.l.

 

[hardcorecap]

Just read an article, Mosley is saying all of our jaws will drop when we watch him dominate Winky in easy fashion....... Interesting...... All Winky is talking about is Hopkins,Trinidad and Oscar..... Is he looking past Shane? I wouldnt think so but Shane seems more focused from what ive seen and read

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Thats a very good point hardcore, I have thought about that also and it may keep me from playing Wright straight.

I read a few Wright interviews myself and it seems like he is giving Mosley no respect and no chance of beating him even with Goosen in his corner. Wright keeps saying there's nothing Shane can do to change the result of this fight. Maybe he's right but with that attitude there's a good chance he's wrong. If Wright thinks he can just go through the motions and win this fight he's absolutley wrong.

Styles make fights and Wright (like Forrest) has the style to beat Shane. But if he takes this fight lightly, doesn't train at 110%, and doesn't realize the possible changes Goosen will make...he could lose easily.

Sometimes it comes down to who wants it more and right now that would definitly be Mosley.

I think the over is the most solid play here. Wright by decision has the best value and is almost as solid as Wright straight b/c I don't see him stopping Shane. A hedge on Mosley by decision at +450 is definitly worth considering as I don't see Shane stopping Wright either.

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

still like wright....i`m sure mosley said something similar prior to the second forrest fight...the hedge could be considered...if you get cold feet..

and goossen may help...but this isn`t like goosen taking up with corrales vs casamayor....remember that goossen trained casamayor for years...knew him like a book....and he went with a guy in corrales that basically had enormous physical advantages over casamayor...

the familiarity angle was very important....remeber last year when lawyer milloy was cut by the pats a week and a half before the season opener...and then signed with the bills....and the bills proceeded to drub the pats something like 38-0....then fell on their face while the pats won the super bowl....

milloy knew everything there was to know about the pats...goossen knew everyting there was to know about casamayor...

and mosley has no inate physical advantages over wright....nothing like corrales vs casamayor.....in fact,wright has the physical advantages...naturally bigger and heavier...bigger boned....a lefty....

look at mosely`s last 5 or so fights....and tell me you are impressed....i`m not...

talk is cheap...take it from mayorga...

 

[badjab]

making a small play on Mosely by decision...mostly because of the 4-1 value....just feel that this is more of a statement fight for Mosely than Wright...also like the Goosen factor.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

A good start to the weekend as Skelton stopped Long at the end of the 11th round.

Have Rowland as a live dog on shobox tonight (10 cst) some serious early money on Rowland moved the line in a big way but it looks like there's some late money on Mendoza. If Row can stay away from Men's power he has a great chance of outboxing him. This fight is in Row's home state of Michigan so if it goes to the cards he may have already won.

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

if you can get to the cards,you have an excellent shot...mendoza is all or nothing...and he`s no boxer....rowland has a sort of homecourt advantage......

that brit dean that my friend was touting lost a decision...not surprising....i think he was to familiar with dean..skewed his judgement.....a very small throwaway...

lots of action this weekend...let`s see how it plays out....

g.l.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

gw I agree with everything you said and I'm sticking with my play on Wright by decision b/c I think thats the most likely outcome and its basically even money. I just think laying -250 is a little risky, at -200 I would probably play it but I have a descent amount on him by decision so I can't risk much more on a straight. I just hope he doesn't knock Shane out! gl

I added a small play on Mashaba and downsized my play on Perez. Should split at the very least on both but looking to hit a double on one and split on the other or hit two doubles which I think is very possible here. I don't see Bungu stopping Mashaba nor do I see Sikali stopping Perez. So barring any cuts I should split at the least.

Propositions are now up at pinnacle, I made a couple of small adjustments. Final plays for the weekend are as posted above.

gl bl

 

[hardcorecap]

Have you seen and read some of the interviews? Shane looks very focused and Winky is talking about who is next already. Very suprising. Im still expecting Winky to be ready to go. Just surprised to hear him talk like that....

BTW, anybody have pics from the weigh in? Im curious to see how Shane looked, bc of his new training regimine.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Hell ya!

Rowland wins by 10 round UD

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Wright over Mosley -245 1/2 unit


Going with my first instincts here and hoping Wright shows up tonight, I think he will. These bigger fights make me nervous, if it goes to the cards who knows what the judges will come up with. A Mosley win or draw would set up a huge payperview rubbermatch and would make alot of money for alot of people. But I'm hoping the judges play it straight here.

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

when do the south african bouts go off?...our time?.....

is that 9 a.m. tomorrow?....

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I thought they went off today, the books pulled the fights off the board late this morning.

Some serious cash has been laid on Wright in the last two hours...

Oly went from -260 to -345!!!

5dimes went from -275 to -320

Pinny went from -267 to -315

So much for the Mosley money coming in, glad I played it at -245

 

[BOXLOCKS]

hardcore
If you are a member you can watch a video of the weigh-ins at boxingtalk.net

Both fighters looked to be in excellent shape

 

[gardenweasel]

that line move scares me to death...