Boxing 11/25 - 11/27

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +14.2 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 13-4 +4.6
.5 unit plays: 62-25 +6.75
Dogs: 19-48 +.85

11/26
Jones-Moore under 10.5 +175 lay .2 to win .35 (winner)

11/27
Morales over Barrera -170 lay 1 to win .6 (loser)
Larios-Hussein over 10.5 -110 1/2 unit (winner)
Larios over Hussein -217 lay .45 to win .2 (winner)
Calderon-Fajardo over 11.5 -325 lay .8 to win .25 (winner)
Dogs
Marquez-Pastrana over 10.5 +115 lay .2 to win .25 (loser)
Fajardo over Calderon +566 lay .1 to win .55 (loser)
Barrera by decision +413 lay .2 to win .85 (winner)

Lottery Ticket
Morales-Barrera DRAW +2100 lay .05 to win 1.05 (L)

gl bl

 

[badjab]

agree with the play on Morales. Barrera has been the ultimate warrior, but at this point, he has been in too many big battles (most recently he was almost KO'd by Paquiano) and as we've seen all too often (Roy Jones), this can happen overnight.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I agree, prior to Barrera's fight with Pac I would have put a best bet on the over in this fight but now I won't touch it. Morales has fought 3 times at 130 and he looks comfortable at that weight. This will be Barrera's first fight at 130,
he may get knocked out. But it should be another great fight for as long as it lasts.

However if this goes the distance there's a chance Barrera could win as he can still keep up with Morales' hand speed.

I'm playing Barrera by decision as a hedge because Morales has had serious hand problems lately.
There will definitly be alot of solid contact in this fight so who knows how long Morales will have full use of his power.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

11/26
Jones-Moore under 10.5 +175 lay .2 to win .35

11/27
Barrera wins by decision +413 lay .2 to win .85

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

11/27
Larios-Hussein over 10.5 -110 1/2 unit

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

smart move by barrera....the timing,i mean....

didn`t want to hang around and possibly see morales get beaten by a corrales.....undermining the lucrative 3rd bout with morales...

if he loses or even gets wacked,he can blame it on the weight...he`s already said he`s going back to 126 after this bout...

if he had jumped right back in with pacquaio,and got slapped around again,he`d absolutely lose his luster at 126....

if he loses to morales here,he blames it on the weight and still has lucrative opportunities at 126 with pacquaio,j.m.m. or maybe even an oscar larios moving up....

very shrewd....

 

[BOXLOCKS]

A good start to the weekend as Moore was disqualified in the 3rd round for hitting on the break.

As posted above I originally played the under 10.5 +175 but 5dimes came out with the under 11.5 +145 so I played it also.
Only counting the original play towards my record.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Marquez-Pastrana over 10.5 +100 to win .25

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Just found a better line...

Marquez-Pastrana over 10.5 +115 (CRIS)

gl bl

 

[hardcorecap]

cal me crazy, but i like a draw here. I already took Morales 2 weeks ago, but it lookd closes and closer every time i look at it. Plus this is a great line on a draw.... I put 40 on it for fun. It has as good of a shot as any draw on paper that ive ever seen

 

[gardenweasel]

agree on the draw prop....after the first 2,why not....either could have been draws....

hell,both were scored incorrectly anyway...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding a small play on...

Calderon-Fajarda over 11.5 -325 lay .8 to win .25

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I was very suprised at the +2100 odds on a draw considering the scores in their first two fights...

114-113 / 113-114 / 115-112 / 112-116 / 113-115 / 113-115

I'm even more suprised that the draw odds haven't moved at 5dimes or Pinnacle. Olympic went from +1800 to +1600.

Morales has gone 12 rounds in 6 of his last 9 fights.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Don't forget to hedge your Morales play with Barrera by decision at +450. These props are very valuable in boxing,
whether you are hedging to make sure you can't lose or just getting better odds on a play.

Look at the last few weeks...

There was absolutly no way DLH was going to knock out Hopkins.
If you liked DLH you should have taken him by decision to get +350 instead of +200 straight.

Mosely had no chance of stopping Wright last weekend so if you liked Mosley you should have
taken him by decision at +500 instead of the +250 straight.

And now this week there is no chance of Barrera stopping Morales so if you like Barrera take him by decision at +450 instead of +200 straight. In my case, I think Morales and extra weight will be too much for Barrera. But I know that if Barrera wins it will be by decision so I took it as a hedge to cut my losses. If Morales wins I still make a decent profit and if he loses I only lose a small amount.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding one more...

Fajardo over Calderon +566 lay .1 to win .55

Fajardo is 4" taller so Calderon will have to get inside to land his shots. He may not be able to if Fajardo uses his height and reach advantage properly. The kicker here is that Fajardo has much more power so Calderon may not want to get inside if he is getting hurt. And Calderon doesn't have the power to back up anyone so Fajardo will be able to press the action at will.

This is a bad spot for Calderon who looked very average against Levya in his last fight.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding one more small play...

Larios over Hussein -217 lay .45 to win .2

My final plays for tonight are as posted above.

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

i parlayed larios with calderon......

and yes....because of barrera`s history with morales.....i mean,the fact that his style has always given morales trouble,the hedge is very smart.....

the thing that scares me a little,is that i have a gut that somebody doesn`t finish this time....and the fact that morales` face tends to break up,is a little diconcerting...

still,the history is that these guys go to the cards.....and form usually holds....

why do i have the feeling that somebody`s going bye-bye?

might be the pizza and beer this afternoon....lol

g.l.,guys...

 

[gardenweasel]

yeah...it was gas....double checked and morales hasn`t been able to get the" better" caliber guys out of there the last few years....with the exception of a perfect uppercut vs beanpole guty espasdas....who was also moving up in weight...

morales has taken some punishment in his bouts...barrera took alot of punishment in the pacquaio bout....other than that,not to bad...

i`m rambling......

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Part of the reason could be that these guys absolutly hate each other! There will definitly be some punches with bad intentions in this one.

This came from Fightnews.com


Morales-Barrera III Update!

Tuesday, November 23 2004


It was a wild day but, at last, Erik Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera made it to the MGM Grand on Tuesday night. Earlier in the day, Morales attended a press conference at the Friars Club in Beverly Hills, Calif. Barrera was a no-show and instead was off to Las Vegas. While Top Rank promoter Bob Arum did a slow burn at the podium, noting "Barrera should be right here, right now" Morales added "showing up and doing press conferences is part of our job. You show up, you talk, you do your job. Barrera didn't do his job today." Word was Barrera did not attend because he "cannot stand to be in the same room as Morales." However, a life-sized squawking chicken did show up with a placard hanging around his neck which read 'Marco Antonio Barrera.' On the stage Morales laughed and posed for photographs.

 

[gardenweasel]

whatever way this plays out,i`m in my glory....

not "the night of the out of shape,over the hill heavyweights".....

look at that kid fajardo that`s fighting for the flyweight title..look at those ribs.......he looks like don knotts after he had "al roker surgery"....

it`s the night of...."the little latino buzzsaws that train in the mountains until you can see their ribs showing through skin and would rather die in the ring than quit"....

my kind of stuff....

i`m gonna sit back and drink it all in....

g.l.,guys...