Boxing 11/3 - 11/4

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +7.20 units
1 unit plays: 9-4 even
1/2 unit plays: 76-32 -0.45
Dogs: 50-75 +7.65



11/3

Segura over Tamara -200...lay .50 to win .25 (winner)



gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Pending Parlays with Mayweather...


Kessler -650 (winner) / Mayweather -475...(-250)...lay 2.0 to win .80

Valuev -535 (win) / Sarritzu -750 (win) / Kessler -650 (win) / Mayweather -650...lay .30 to win .25

Williams -400 (winner) / Kessler -650 (winner) / Mayweather -475...lay .35 to win .25

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding


Segura over Tamara -200...lay .50 to win .25


gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

why wouldn`t old ricardo vargas hang in for 10.5 vs perez?....only laying -110....

the guy hung in with mabuza in april..went 12 with marquez at 118 also, last year....he went 10 with jhonny gonzales 3 years ago....

he`s slick...the better boxer...and naturally a little bigger...this is at 115....heights are pretty even...

cuts could be a problem...the old lefty/righty thing....that`s a worry...there is a history of cuts in vargas fights...

and cutting to 115 might be an issue...even though it`s only 3 pounds...

he`s old...but as recently as last year,vargas was in with much bigger punchers than perez...perez has 15 stoppages in 24 fights...and in 10 of his first 11 pro bouts,obviously vs weak opposition building his career,he got stoppages.....

so,in his last 14 or 15 bouts,vs worthy opposition,he only logged 5 stoppages...

why is the over only 10.5 only -110?....

i`m not getting this line...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I've been wondering the same thing.

Pinnacle opened the Over 10.5 at +115. There are 3 things that worry me about playing the Over...

* The odds opened favoring the Under, are we missing something?

* Vargas is 35 years old and has been on the wrong side of a lot of wars, against big punchers,
his time is coming

* Cuts



Aren't both of these guys southpaws? Boxrec has them both as lefties, that would eliminate the lefty/righty headbutt scenario. Vargas has had 5 technical decisions in his career but the Ruiz and Castillo fights were stopped on their cuts not Vargas'. I'll check on the other three TD's

Anyway, I like the play, wish I woulda got the +115. Might parlay it with Klitschko next week to get +133

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

In the Tapia fight, Vargas was cut

In the Guerrero fight, Guerrero was cut

Not sure about the Gonzalez fight, but it sounds like most of these cuts were caused by Vargas. He may not be the one getting cut, but he's the one causing the damage. I'm pretty sure thats why Joey opened the Over at +115

Still riding the fence on this one, if no one gets cut...it goes to the cards for sure.

 

[gardenweasel]

i`ve seen him fight several times,and unless i`m getting senilenono,he`s a righty....

he`s a slick guy.... very durable...and he uses that head....no doubt...

at almost even money,i took the chance.....

btw...i was looking at the pavlik under.....the guy he`s fighting is a shorter aggressive guy....he did go 11 with willie gibbs...but was blown out by duddy....pavlik SHOULD pick this guy to pieces....

at under 8.5,i might have moved..6.5 isn`t getting it....

 

[gardenweasel]

btw...looks like the ppv septic tank backed up again.....who`s thrwing 50 quatloos at this drecch?.....

mayweather vs oscar bonavena?....old salido vs guerrero?....i`d rather watch zsa zsa gabor slap a motorcycle cop....

and particularly when there`s actually free fights on...and their halfway interesting...

paul williams vs who?.....:shrug: ..they`re dragging mauro lucero out there?...he just got k.o.`ed by "mathusaleh" phillips......

in two weeks you have pacquaio/morales..
ricardo torres vs mike arnaoutis and the viloria/nino rematch....real fights...

ultimate fight night on (i think) the 12th...and the main show a few days later....

pbf will be on hbo next weekend...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

btw...i was looking at the pavlik under.....the guy he`s fighting is a shorter aggressive guy....he did go 11 with willie gibbs...but was blown out by duddy....pavlik SHOULD pick this guy to pieces....

at under 8.5,i might have moved..6.5 isn`t getting it....

Sportsbook had Under 7.5 -160, I played it small but wasn't confident enough to recommend it

 

[gardenweasel]

i actually parred it small with the over in the perez/vargas bout.....and got almost 3-1...still,i couldn`t recommend it at under 6.5...

which,i guess, means that the vargas/perez over is doomed..... :banghead:

 

[BOXLOCKS]

From fightnews...


Perez loses title on scale!
By Oscar Paredes
IBF super flyweight champion Luis Perez was unable to make the 115lb limit for his title defense on Saturday against Ricardo "Chapo" Vargas in Phoenix. Perez weighed in at 120 for the bout during today's weigh-in. "That fight will not go," DKP executive Bob Goodman informed Fightnews.com. "The Commissioner John Montano determined that there was just too great a disparity in the weights and since boxers have an obligation to make the weight contractually, they should do that. It's not fair to anybody, not fair to the promoter, not fair to the fans, not fair to the other boxer. So he said unless he makes weight there's no fight." Perez is the latest in a rash of fighters to not make weight before high-profile fights.

-------------------------------------------------------------------


Perez has two hours to lose 5 pounds...lol

 

[gardenweasel]

a 120 pound world class athlete...who is obviously lean to begin with.....would have to cut off an arm to drop a 5`er in 2 hours.....

no way...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Good Start

Good Start

Segura won by 12 round UD

 

[gardenweasel]

i hate to mention plays after the fact...but i also mention `em when i blow(like i did last weekend in college foots)...... but,i had the over in hlatswayo/holt(11.5) parred with floyd by decision(and then took floyd inside the distance as a hedge).....

i was holding my breath...holt really handled hlatswayo fairly easily..made him look ponderous...i thought he was quitting after the cut.....

holt looks like he`s getting better...could throw more punches and holds a little to much for my taste...but,he looked o.k...

btw..congrats on segura...i parred him with lyakhovich.....

that`s an interesting...and dangerous fight...particularly for lyakhovich early....

 

[BOXLOCKS]

i hate to mention plays after the fact...but i also mention `em when i blow(like i did last weekend in college foots)...... but,i had the over in hlatswayo/holt(11.5) parred with floyd by decision(and then took floyd inside the distance as a hedge).....

i was holding my breath...holt really handled hlatswayo fairly easily..made him look ponderous...i thought he was quitting after the cut.....

holt looks like he`s getting better...could throw more punches and holds a little to much for my taste...but,he looked o.k...

I played Holt +185 due to the location/promotion of the fight, should have posted it but I wasn't real confident. I knew Segura would win easily so I just posted the most solid play and left the Pavlik Under and Holt as personal plays.

I don't like posting plays after the fact either, but MF knows I played Holt...he was on it as well.


gl bl

 

[frank s.]

Box; I am liking the Ferguson selection. Peden is a legend in his own mind. He hasn't been active and seems to be showing up to acquire rent money. Fergie is a good value, I think, but then you already knew that. No pick on tonite's "mega fight"? How bout some input on Guerrero-Salido if you have a chance?

 

[gardenweasel]

i`d like to say something on the "mega fight"......

i think i`m missing something here.....i`m reading some boxing writers saying that baldomir has a real chance here....how he came up from the bottom...mayweather has a siver spoon in his mouth...mayweather`s almost 30...baldomir beat gatti and judah.......yada yada yada....


bullshit...gatti`s a joke...who made a living out of beating out-sized opponents in a carefully managed late career...when he stepped up to fight a legit welter with a decent chin,it was over....and baldomir`s no puncher...look at his record...

judah?...he quits in practically every fight if the opponent shows any resistance...guys don`t beat him...he just stops trying...he`s either sacless or a mental case...

and baldomir`s about as close to 36 as mayweather is to 30....


i know mayweather is coming up in weight....but,there`s no height advantage...probably no reach advantage...baldomir,contrary to what we`re hearing,isn`t a puncher...

he`s not jose luis castillo....not even close...

22 in a row?.....the guy has like 9 losses...joshua clottey had him beat in london back in "99"....lost by d.q...

so,i`m just not getting all the hype....this is ali-bonavena/chuvalo redux.........nobody knew who this guy was before judah/gatti....where are the top 10 wins in that streak?...

the only thing i`d worry about is floyd`s hands....

if the best boxer in the world can`t outslick this plodder,then the world must be flat...

i`ll take the guy`s record at face value....he has great whiskers.....but,can mayweather cut him up?...break him down?....

doesn`t seem likely given the fact that the guy`s very durable....

lots of hype leading up to this one...i doubt that mayweather is taking baldomir lightly.....

there are some legit big-time/big money fights for mayweather down the road...some real challenges....this shouldn`t be one of them,imo...

the only way mayweather struggles here is if his hands give out...or he stands right in front of baldomir...and i don`t think he`s that stupid...

probably mayweather by decision...makes sense...

 

[frank s.]

Well said. Baldy is no Castillo. He is bigger but not as skilled. If PBF loses, he looks like shit. He may not think Baldy is a skilled fighter, but as he said on HBO this week, he cares more about winning than about $. I tend to believe it. It could get stopped on cuts perhaps, as Baldy will be eating lots of shots. I don't know. I just can't read this one, or maybe it's just hiding in plain site. :shrug:

 

[The Sponge]

weasal i agree with your assessment with the Mayweather fight but i still think it will be a fight worth watching. i think it will be a good solid fight but the hype is getting rediculous. when i saw Jim Lampley acting like the guy was Tyson in his prime i now am worried he may get knocked out in the first round. J/K. I think its gonna be a nice solid fight.

 

[gardenweasel]

i`m not saying it`s a walkover..baldomir`s gonna make this as rough as possible....i`m just saying that i`m not entirely buying all the "baldomir is a beast" talk......

we just watched last night...a quick,boxer puncher in kendall holt school a very tough,albeit a tad slow and deliberate hlatschwayo....who was favored.....

granted,it was hlatschwayo who was moving up in weight...

baldomir HAS TO come to mayweather....force him to the ropes like castillo did....rough him up...borderline mug him....

there is one other thing i failed to mention...this is the first LEGIT welter mayweather`s fought(gatti and judah weren`t established welters).....

all that said,i would not ever lay that -670.....that`s not smart,imo...

btw...theres a whole lot of mayweather haters out there...i don`t really care one way or the other,personally...it just strikes me as odd.....i don`t know why the guy engenders such strong negative feelings...the same thing happened with roy jones.....

i mean,who was a bigger jackass than ali?....and everybody(except me) loved him...

very strange...