Boxing 11/5 - 11/13

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +8.7 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 12-4 +3.1
.5 unit plays: 53-24 +3.8
Dogs: 13-32 -.2

11/6
Mitchell-Tszyu over 10.5 -180 1/2 unit (loser)
Mitchell-Tszyu over 8 -345 lay .7 to win .2 (loser)
Mitchell by decision +315 lay .2 to win .65 (loser)

We'll get it all back next week

bl

 

[hardcorecap]

I really like the over in both the Golota-ruiz fight and the Meehan Rahman fight. All tough guys, and i think they are both safe bets. Personally I think if you like Meehan to win, he would win a decision if anything. I dont think Rahman will stand there and take punches like Brewster did. I think Meehan has good value to win though.

What do you think about McCline? I feel he has a good shot, but Byrd may make him look foolish

 

[BOXLOCKS]

McCline definitly has a shot. After watching Byrds's last two fights I have to think anyone has a shot at beating him. Especially a very tall yet skillful boxer with a good long jab like McCline. At +175 he's definitly worth a shot however...Oquendo beat Byrd convincingly but the DK factor trumped his performance and he lost a very contraversial decision. I think this fight willl be very close but I always consider the politics in my plays and I would hate to lose on a DK decision. I might put a small bet on McCline later but the over is definitly the strongest play here.

You may be right about Rahman-Meehan, but at +120 I had to play it small. Brewster's chin is unreal, not many heavyweights could take the punishment he endured in the Meehan fight. And I don't think Brewster has much power so I'm not impressed with Meehan's chin for taking his shots. If I remember right Meehan was stunned a few times himself in that fight. Rahman hits much harder than Brewster and I think there will be some big punches thrown early in this fight as Rahman may not want to go the distance with a taller guy who has proven he can fight effectively and at a good pace for 12 full rounds. If this fight goes over the 7.5 there's a good chance Meehan will win a decision.

Any thoughts on the Mitchell-Tszyu fight?

 

[hardcorecap]

I really like Tszyu, but im not sure after his layoff how he will fare. Mitchell is very skillful, but he hasnt really faced any top talent close to their prime since their first meeting. I saw an interview with Tszyu and he looks to be in good shape and good spirits and ready to go. He has always been a machine in that ring, and i coudlnt bet against him.

 

[gardenweasel]

how do you handicap rahman?......he has fought nothing but stiffs the last few years...blown up lt heavyweights.....old men....he struggled mightily with al cole....

he`s immobile....slow....inactive...he threw almost no punches vs ruiz....he doesn`t like to train and seldom comes into fights in top shape...


and i still think,even though he`ll be the smaller guy(shorter guy,i mean)vs meehan,he`ll find a way to win this...i think he`s much stronger than meehan...

brewster was unbelievably inactive vs meehan...and lately,rahman tends to stalk without punching....

.....when brewster pressed meehan,he seemed liked the stronger guy...and brewster is a smallish heavyweight....
rahman gets one more shot at a title if he wins here(brewster)......a winnable fight for him....

i looked at the under...will meehan move and box?....if rahman was in shape and came to get the job done,i might play it...as slow and economical as rahman has been with his punches lately,who knows...

the one play that really looks like money to me is the byrd/mccline over...

this is mccline`s kinda fight...vs a little man that can`t punch...

mccline doesn`t particularly like fighting big guys that can punch and inevitably fights safety first....

vs klitschko,i`m absolutely convinced he left the ring with a load in his pants...he must have soiled himself...

i don`t ever recall a pro fighter being as tense ,stiff and cautious as mccline was vs klit..he was scared to death..

he`ll probably have a full compliment of "coulumes" vs byrd....vs a little guy who will be fighting a defensive fight...

3 years ago,byrd totally outclasses mccline...but of late,byrd seems to be regressing.... huge size and reach advantage vs speed,quickness and skill advantage...and and he`s a lefty..

i`d think that mccline has a shot...but,he`s really not a big puncher for a big man....

probably a distance fight,imo...i`m hoping byrd lands something early that gets mccline`s attention...then mccline will fight his usual cautious fight...

holifield/donald?.......where`s tony tubbs when you need him?...who cares?...


golota/ruiz...
i fully expect that if things get dicey in this fight,that ruiz will attempt to get golota d.q.`ed.....he will try and goad golota into fouling...

i expect ruiz to try every dirty trick in the book and then throw himself writhing on the canvas if hit with anything below the sternum....ala the kirk johnson fight...

ruiz` corner is one of the scummiest in boxing....

if i were in golata`s corner,i`d have a talk with the ref regarding ruiz` attempting to take advantage of golota`s past reputation....to make sure any alleged acting by ruiz is based on legit fouls...

the key to beating ruiz is giving yourself room to punch....ruiz will jab,throw the right hand and fall in...it obviously must be hard to stop..but i`ve watched more than a couple ruiz fights....punching and stepping to the side totally screws him up...his feet are like lead...

do everything you have to to keep from grappling with the guy...

golota is big and tall enough to get this done....and he can box a bit...he`s the stronger,more physical guy...

and i think he`s much more skilled than ruiz...

of course,how many times have we seen guys do exactly the wrong thing vs ruiz?.....

it`s unbelievable...and i just read some comments from golota indicating he wasn`t very confident about this fight....the guy is weird...

if there`s a d,q, prop for this fight,it`s worth looking at....

other than the over in byrd,mccline,i`m not enthused....i`ll check around and see if anyone solid comes up with anything....g.l.

p.s....based on inactivity and styles,i want to take a shot with sharmba mitchell....

i can see TSZYU tasting the canvas early...but probably not staying there...

people are comparing this to trinidad/mayorga...the layoff and all...but mayorga was a blown up welterweight...with little skill...a great style match-up for tito...

not so for tszyu...who i love....but he struggled with mitcchell in the first fight...

you never know how a guy will react after being off for so long...it`s usually not good...


i`ll ask around on this one..

 

[gardenweasel]

i`ve had 2 plays holding up my money for over a month...morales and winky wright.....

the best bets on the board,imo.....particularly wright.....

i wonder if shane is back on the juice?....

 

[hardcorecap]

I hear ya buddy. To be honest, I was all about Wright, but something is telling me to stay away from this one. I just think that if Forrest can beat Mosley twice, why can't Wright. then I think if Mayorga can beat Forrest twicewhy cant Mosley beat Wright. When you factor in a new trainer, and the fact that Mosley may be a bit desprate here since he needs it bad, My feelings have changed a little bit. I think that Wright will win, but im not ready to bet on it yet. Plus Mosley is one of my favorites, and maybe its just wishfull thinking on my part. As far as Morales-Barrera, thats a whole different story.Ill share that one when it gets closer.

 

[badjab]

Golata has been a train wreck for quite some time and I don't look for him to improve against Ruiz. Ruiz is a sloth of a fighter (even by heavyweight standards), but I gotta believe that Golata won't take advantage and try to box him. This one could resemble a dance marathon, but somehow Ruiz eeks out a decision.

 

[gardenweasel]

i`m serious when i say that i wonder about mosley...i didn`t like what i heard in an interview i heard about a month ago....and the squinting and tics he displayed.....he didn`t look good to me...

maybe he was tired....i could be wrong...but he`s taken a few beatings recently.....

i`d be surprised if winky wasn`t ready...he finally got some pub. by beating shane....after basically being overlooked by all but "hardcore"(lol)boxing followers....

i think it`s a bad idea to jump back in vs the same guy that just beat me...with the forrest fights,harris/urkal.....and some other fights showing that it`s not always a good idea to jump right back on that horse....

lennox k.o.`ed rahman.....but rahman got lucky...winky gave shane a systematic beatdown....

but,i could be wrong.....don`t believe so,but,that`s why they call it gambling.....

i`m a huge barrera fan...always rooted for him vs morales...and both those decisions were bass-ackwards....

morales should have lost the first go-round...morales did better in the second fight..but got robbed,imo....and with the extra weight,should get even better in the 3rd...

my rationale in the 3rd one is the weight...morales always looked like a cadaver at feather...he must have been killing himself to make the weight...

barrera fights him tough..no doubt...barrera`s style is tough for morales...but,the move up in weight combined with morales staying a little more active...at this weight vs competent guys......makes me lean his way....


g.l.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I'll post my thoughts on the Golata-Ruiz and Byrd-McCline fights next week.

I made a few changes to my Tszyu-Mitchell plays, final plays are posted above.

Obviously I think the over is the best play here. Mitchell has won 11 of his last 13 by decision so I'm not too worried about him getting a stoppage here. Tszyu has alot of power but he has gone the distance in 2 of his last 4 and Mitchell hasn't been stopped in 10 years.

Besides the knee injury against Tszyu in their first meeting, Mitchell hasn't lost a fight in 10 years. He has stayed very active and fought very good competion in that span.

As everyone knows Tszyu is coming off a 22 month layoff, Mitchell has fought 4 times since Kostya last stepped into the ring!

The biggest part of the 22 month layoff is that Tszyu is 35 years old. Its not too hard for a young fighter to rebound from a long layoff, but for a 35 year old its very difficult.

A few more things to consider:
Tszyu did not take a warmup fight to break off the ring rust he will definitly have.
Mitchell is a slick, quik, skilled, cafty southpaw who gave Tszyu plenty of problems with a bum knee in their first fight.
While these two are the same height, Mitchell has a 5 inch reach advantage that will definitly help him establish the jab and find a rythm in this fight.

I think Tszyu made a big mistake here. He has everything working against him in this fight but he took it anyway. If he wins I will be very suprised and extremely impressed. He will definitly deserve to be mentioned as one of the top five pound for pound fighters.

Tszyu will come out stalking as usual, following Mitchell around the ring looking for the big shot. Mitchell will dance around the ring firing the jab from outside and countering Kostya's big shots with short quik ones. I really think the key to this fight will be Mitchell's footwork combined with Tszyu's inactivity. Kostya will be far from sharp so I look for Mitchell to use his great lateral movement to keep Tszyu turning and not giving him a chance to get off.

The over is the best play here b/c Mitchell doesn't want to get hit by Tszyu's big shots and he's a slick enough southpaw to keep it from happening. Especially against a very stale, one dimensional Tszyu who hasn't fought in 22 months.


gl bl

 

[hardcorecap]

Im with you on the over. Should be a solid play, but as we know anything can happen. I think it is a mistake to fight Sharmba after a long layoff, because he will prob have to go and find him, unlike Trinidad who had a longer layoff, but had a guy stand in front of him and ask to be hit(seriously). Still i have a hard time going against a guy who for the most part has always found a way to win. I wont start now, but i will be rooting for Mitchell here.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Respect your thoughts Boxlocks on the Tszyu - Mitchell stoush but I'll be cheering for our 'adopted' ruski, Kostya, to get the points against your guy.

He's got a huge heart our man and he won't give it away easily. I'm surprised to see him so short with the books after such a long lay off and all your local pundits giving him little chance of victory.

I'll follow you with the overs and be happy with a points decision. I hope it wont 'kostya' too much when he wins!!!


GO KOSTYA!!!!

 

[BOXLOCKS]

As long as the over hits, I don't care who wins!

Kostya is a great fighter, I just don't think this is a very good spot for him considering everything I mentioned above.
There is great value here on Mitchell by decision at +315.

Like I said if Tszyu wins this convincingly, he has to be considered a top 5 (maybe even top 3) pound for pounder.

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

mitchell`s been sketchy when asked about the knee..he says it`s around 75%.....

i think mitchell has a shot..but,he has a ready made excuse of things get dicey.....

i don`t think mitchell will fold,though....unless he`s taking a beating and getting roughed up..

no big fan of long layoffs....and as i said,this is nothing like trinidad coming back to face skill-less,in your face mayorga.....

could be a difficult night for tszyu...if he`s regressed..and maybe even if he hasn`t....

should be a great fight to watch...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I made a few last minute changes based on my final thoughts on this fight. My plays for tonight are as posted above.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Sorry fellas

Mitchell looked like he was coming off a 22 month layoff and Tszyu looked very sharp and strong. I guess layoffs are overrated.

Alot of great action coming up

 

[BOXLOCKS]

In a 22 foot ring Mitchell desides to trade with this guy???

 

[hardcorecap]

Its ok we will bounce back.. Im glad i didint take Mitchell. Still lost the over big. I am really surprised, Mitchell looked awful, and I dont think he has anything left to give the sport.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Kostya cost us all by finishing this quick. He made Sharmba look like a crackhead street bum!!!

Tszyu is 'da man'.

P 4 P....one of the best :clap:

Who is likely to be his next victim??

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I hope Vivian Harris, Floyd Wayweather,or Ricky Hatton

I seriously dought you will see Hatton and Tszyu in the ring at the same time though. Harris is definitly a possibility and would make a great fight. Tszyu made it clear that he wants big fights only from here on out and Mayweather would make a huge fight.

I would like to see Judah come back down in weight for a rematch.

IMO the three best fights out there are:
Mayweather-Judah at 140
Mayweather-Mosley at 147
Mosley-Judah at 147

I know Mosley is fighting at 154 but he needs to get off the roids and go back down to 147 where he belongs.