Boxing 12/4

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +12.9
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2.0
1 unit plays: 15-5 +4.15
.5 unit plays: 63-28 +5.75
Dogs: 20-51 +1.0

12/3
Juarez-Espadas over 10.5 -110 1/2 unit (loser)
Munoz-Castillo under 11.5 -120 lay .3 to win .25 (loser)
Guinn-Lyakhovich under 9.5 +249 lay .1 to win .25 (loser)
Espadas by 12 round decision +1220 lay .05 to win .6 (L)

12/4
Krasniqi-Hoffman over 7.5 -205 1.5 units (winner)
Krasniqi over Hoffman -200 lay .5 to win .25 (push)
Castillo-Casamayor over 10.5 -130 1 unit (winner)
Castillo over Casamayor -160 1/2 unit (winner)
Lacy wins inside distance -295 1 unit (loser)
Lacy-Sheika under 8.5 -128 1/2 unit (loser)
Lacy-Sheika over 6.5 +100 1/2 unit (winner)

Hedge
Casamayor wins by decision +346 lay .2 to win .7 (loser)

gl bl

 

[damien4191]

I like the pick, and I love this fight. Could be a FOTY candidate. I wish Scott Pemberton would of gotten the title shot though.

 

[hardcorecap]

Pemberton is now the WBC #1 contenden, so he will be getting a shot soon. I think It will be an exciting fight, much like Trinidad-Mayorga, it will be a one sided, exciting fight.

 

[gardenweasel]

shieka`s a tough guy...but 8.5?.......how`s this thing go 8.5?....

sheika isn`t syd vanderpool,who fought beautifully vs lacy....he can box and punch....and lacy still walked him down....

sheika will be right there....somebody will have to go.....i doubt if it`s lacy....

again,i`ll be shocked if this thing gets past 7....

sheika`s not the boxer that vanderpool is....he will have to take a stand....sooner rather than later....

and lacy is walking on air after the vanderpool fight...vanderpool was a well kept boxing secret...

i like the play...even if it blows,you have to play it,imo...

 

[gardenweasel]

my post made it sound like this is a sure thing....it`s not...sheika is a tough hombre that is capable of taking a beating...if he doesn`t break up,he could hang in.....

but,sheika usually comes to fight,not play around.....ditto lacy....both can punch a bit...particularly lacy....

that`s why i thought under 8.5 was worth a look...

 

[hardcorecap]

Yea, but this under 8.5 looks very tempting, and its not bad odds. Kind of play that if you decided not to play, and it came in, you would be mad at yourself. Atleast thats how I am. haha

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding
Krasniqi-Hoffman over 7.5 -240 1/2 unit

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Krasniqi-Hoffman over 7.5 -205 add 1/2 unit (1 unit total)

Lacy wins inside distance -295 1/2 unit for now

Downsizing my play on Castillo to a 1/2 unit

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Lacy wins inside distance is by far the most solid play I've seen this year!

Adding a 1/2 unit making it a 1 unit play and calling it my BEST BET of the year!!!

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Remember the way Sheika looked at the end of his last fight with a slow and old Scott Pemberton. He was stopped in the 10th but looked like he was gone in the 9th. Lacy is so much better than Pemberton its not even funny, he's much stronger, much faster, and much younger. I actually think Sheika will put up a better fight than Pemberton would. But I expect Shieka to get caught early and unless Lacy gets caught with something while he's finishing him off he should stop him in the mid rounds. At the very least Sheika should be out of gas hurt badly by the 10th like he was against Pemb. I played this huge personally but won't risk too many units on one play for my record here at MJ's.

Better hurry, line is at -320 now

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Btw, this is a 12 round fight...I don't see Sheika lasting that long

 

[gardenweasel]

b.l...did you get my e-mail...i have several for you....not sure which one is correct....

if you didn`t get it,shoot me some mail so i can respond..

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Didn't get it...you have mail

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Juarez-Espadas over 10.5 -110 1/2 unit

Munoz-Castillo under 11.5 -120 lay .3 to win .25

Guinn-Lyakhovich under 9.5 +249 lay .1 to win .25

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

i`m leaning the dog castillo in the castillo/munoz bout....castillo`s been in tougher...munoz has done most of his business in venezuela and japan...

he apparently can punch.....so you never know...still,i like castillo`s experience vs tougher guys....castillo`s a solid boxer/ puncher....he should be undefeated,also...he also tends to cut...mostly via butts...

the american venue,i would think,favors the mexican a little in california....

small dog play here....

i guess i can post this now....i parlayed the over in the krasniqi/hoffman bout with lacy inside the distance.....and i parlayed several other props..in different ways.......felix cora to win.....klitschko inside the distance...krasniqi to win...krasniqi over......

lots of stuff out there this week....

and one bout next week picques my interest,although it isn`t lined yet....

g.l.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

If Castillo can make it to the cards he has a great chance of outboxing the limited Munoz.

I responded to your e-mail, did you get mine?

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Btw, the Munoz fight is in Texas not Cali but there will still be more crowd support for Castillo.

Castillo had to pull out a late stoppage to get the win in his last fight against Ishihara. The judges had it 97-93 96-94 94-96 for Ishihara when he was stopped in the 11th round. From what I read the judges weren't bais as Castillo got off to a very slow start.

However
Munoz is coming off a 10 month layoff and from what I've read he too had a slow start in his last fight. But he was fighting Eiji Kojima who he KO'd in the 2nd round 1.5 years prior. I imagine he didn't train very hard for that fight since he knew he could hurt the guy at will.

Castillo is prone to cutting and I expext this to be a tough fight with alot big shots being traded. Munoz has only gone the distance once and has 24 ko's in 25 fights. Castillo has some power also and Munoz will defintly leave himself open to hit. Line has already moved toward the under.

gl bl

 

[MayorgaFan]

...

...

I like a lot of Asian fights and I have seen Castillo's and Munoz's last fight. I really wish I had Telefutura but instead I will have to wait for a friend to send it to me. This is the most interesting (to me) fight of the weekend.

As for the fights there are SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO many factors that could sway it either way. Conventional wisdom tells me Castillo outboxes Munoz BUT, Castillo likes to trade a bit to much and as Boxlox mentioned he cuts as well. Hell, he cuts in about every fight I have seen him in. If Munoz draws him into a war with his good consistent pressure, Munoz has a real good chance. Despite Castillo's faster hands, Munoz does hit harder and takes a good shot. From what I have seen both take a pretty good shot.

2 years ago I would have picked Munoz without a 2nd thought, I watched him beat Celes Kobayashi's ass and become the only guy who stopped him. He looked a lot better back then but since then has had many injuries. He has had knee (both knees) and hand issues. Regardless, he is still bigger,stronger and hits harder than Castillo. All I can say is this is a really hard fight to pick. Munoz may get outboxed but he is fighting a guy who likes to fight to much and may trade a little to much.

Oh yeah 1 last thing, I wouldn't hold Castillo's last fight against him. Munoz was supposed to fight Ishihara in Japan and munoz had to pull out a month beforehand (injuries, what's new). Castillo stepped in to take the fight but he had to lose over 20 pounds. His stamina really dropped off because of that. I saw his fight before Ishihara and Castillo looked real well. Threw lots of punches, moved a lot and no stamina issues. Against Ishihara he hit a wall pretty early (mid rounds) and the fight got ugly (lots of holding and stuff).

I won't be betting this fight but I do see it as a real interesting fight.

 

[gardenweasel]

mayorga...lot of fights to choose from this weekend....who you lookin` at?

 

[MayorgaFan]

....

....

I don't play a lot even if there are a lot of selections. On Wednesday I took the Lyakovich-Guinn under. Not so much because I have a lot of faith in Guin knocking out Lyakovich but it started at +275 which made it a good play IMO.