Boxing 12/8 -12/10

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +24.6 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2.0
1 unit plays: 8-2 +5.25
.5 unit plays: 78-32 +4.3
Dogs: 72-81 +13.05


12/10

Wright-Soliman over 11.5 -280...lay 1.0 to win .35 (winner)

Soliman +18.5 points (or any ko) -115...to win .25 (winner)

Harrison-Williams over 6.5 -180...lay .35 to win .2 (winner)


Dogs

Williams over Harrison +250...lay .1 to win .25 (winner)

Ikeke over Abraham +122...lay .2 to win .25 (loser)

Reyes over Calderon +270...lay .1 to win .25 (loser)

Soliman over Wright +830...lay .15 to win 1.25 (loser)


gl bl

 

[Anders]

locks - was pondering a small play on Soliman as a big dog, to me he's pretty tough, under-rated and unorthodox - any value in the longshot? cheers

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Anders...congrats on your excellent season


Funny you should ask about Soliman. I played him very small at +800ish but I'm not recommending it, just taking a shot at the big + money.

Winky is 2" taller but he's naturally smaller than Soliman who has fought at 168 and never below 160. Winky has always fought at 154 and just recently stepped up to 160 to fight Trinidad who is a blown up light-middle himself. So this will be Wink's first fight against a true middleweight.

Soliman is extremely unorthodox and that gives him a chance against the overly orthodox Wright who gets into a rythm with his jab and follows it with the straight left. If there's anyone who can get Winky out of his 1-2 rythm...its Soliman.

Btw, Soliman's last loss was 4 years and 20 fights ago...at 168. He lost a split decision to Anthony Mundine in Austrailia, not too shabby.


However (and the reason I played Soliman small)

The location and promotion heavily favor the champion here, and Soliman doesn't have the power to end the fight on his own terms. Plus Winky has a good chin and a great defense to go along with his wide southpaw stance. Soliman will have to outbox the boxer decisively to take the fight, esp given the promotion and the fact that a win for Wright sets up a big money fight with Taylor. All that will be hard for Soliman to overcome, but Raheem recently dominated Morales under similar circumstances and with the books offering similar odds. I played Raheem small but didn't recommend it due to the situation, sound familiar?


Personally I think the over is a very solid bet, but the odds are heavy. gl in whatever you decide

bl

 

[gardenweasel]

anders...i know you didn`t ask me.....but...everybody`s entitled to my opinion.....lol

he`s unorthodox...and tough...no doubt....i expect him to go the distance...and it won`t be fun for winky.....soliman can fight...he`s very unorthodox....but,he`s a gamer...

but,winky`s on the verge of big money fights,anders...i`m not sure soliman...even if he`s real competitive....will catch any breaks here.....

he`ll have to dominate....big money on the horizon for anybody involved with winky....

it`s ashamed...but,that`s boxing...

i like the ikeke bet.....i think he`s a real difficult guy to fight....

i`m very anxious to see the line on ruiz/valuev......not much buzz.....i have some thoughts on this one....

i was looking at the under in rubio/kodzoev...i`ve seen rubio buzzed several times...and knockouts are his game.....maybe par the under with something for some action....small for fun....maybe look at kodzoev as a small dog play?....

not sure...

 

[MayorgaFan]

...

...

The Kodzoev-Rubio under moved damn quick yesterday. I bet it at -105, had to go outside at work and do something and came back in 10 minutes later and it was -131. Kodzoev's chin isn't to great but he is a decent boxer and Rubio is quite slow. Rubio's chin sucks though as well. Hopefully Rubio can put on effective pressure so someone gets KO'ed

 

[MayorgaFan]

BTW, I don't usually bet high priced overs but I took the Wright over as well. Who the hell gets ko'ed in that fight? Soliman is unorthodox but I looked through his record and he don't have any technical decisions. Pretty odd that people bet the under on that fight. Only way it goes under is on a headbutt,cut or swelling. Which neither guy has a history of.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Thanks for the input fellas

gw...a parlay with Rubio under and Wright over pays better than even money...I played it small for fun

gl bl

 

[MayorgaFan]

So much for that, the Kodzoev fight is off.

 

[amhlilhaus]

I like wright also, my thinking was along yours, wright has solid defense, a good chin and never had a history of cuts or swelling, and he won't take chances to ko soliman. that's also why I played the decision for wright, and just for miracles occuring hedged a small one on soliman by decision. heavy juice which is why I keep these plays small, but they should be very solid.

it is boxing though.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

From fightnews...


Winky sick, will fight anyway!

Friday, December 9 2005


UPDATE: "People wanted me to pull out," Winky Wright told his hometown paper, the St Petersburg Times. Yesterday's press conference was cut short so Winky could get back to his room. "I'm fighting, trying to get it out of my system. I don't know what it is. It's just a cold. Got a stuffed up chest, stuffed nose, but hey, I'm here. It don't matter what it is, I'm here and I'm fighting." Although noticeably congested, Winky had hard workouts Wednesday and Thursday. (Photo: Richard A. Esposito)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Williams over Harrison +250...lay .1 to win .25

Soliman over Wright +830...lay .1 to win .85


gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

o.k...i`ll touch soliman lightly...

maybe winky`s not 100%...and just maybe,the b.hop/taylor/floyd jr rumors will be a distraction...

i think he`ll have to decapitate winky to win...but,at almost 8-1,wtf...

i`m not laying 3-1 in either over,but,the wright/ soliman,calderon/reyes overs look very good....


maybe some sort of parlay....

btw...that mattysse guy on hbo latino the other night...argentine?....those body shots he was throwing made ME wince.....

this guy should make for some interesting fights down the road...

 

[gardenweasel]

danny williams weighs in at 272?....heaviest of his career...

that tells me 2 things...that he was probably woefully out of shape when he pulled out of the skelton fight.....

and that,imo,short of a lucky shot,he`s in trouble today...

he has a substantial height disadvantage...not to mention harrison`s lefty stance...

also,it seems that of late, harrison is setting down on his shots a little more...

looks like williams is heading for the last round-up,imo...

i touched him in a parlay when it was -220...

but,williams does have a puncher`s chance....

we`ll start finding out what harrison is made of...

i think he`s improving a little...

btw...i see williams` best shot as being a stoppage...i don`t think he wins a decision...+440.......as a small hedge....

 

[BOXLOCKS]

btw...i see williams` best shot as being a stoppage...i don`t think he wins a decision...+440.......as a small hedge....

I agree, unfortunately I had already played Williams straight when 5dimes opened the props. They hung them so late, I didn't expect to see any props, oh well.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Very Nice

Very Nice

As posted in the other thread, Williams wins by 12 round SD

The over cashes easily, and the +250 dog comes in

 

[gardenweasel]

i must say i`m shocked....he wins a split at 272!....

i can`t wait to hear from some brits that saw it...can`t picture it in my head...

congrats,b.l....a very nice win... :clap:

 

[gardenweasel]

not my weekend...ikeke got crushed by abraham.....

i`m looking for the cat...somebody has to pay for this...

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Jorge Armando Arce vs Adonis Rivas

any thoughts on that fight tonite?

 

[BOXLOCKS]

UT-L...I believe that fight was cancelled but I'm not positive...wouldn't have played it anyway


gw...I can't say that I'm completely shocked, we've seen Harrison fight a few times and his workrate was absolutely pathetic. From what I've read thats exactly what cost him this fight, he was outworked by a fat, lazy, out of shape, and much shorter Williams.

I'm surprised...but not shocked...lol

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Winky looks like sh*t in every picture I've seen

Adding a little more to Soliman, final play...lay .15 to win 1.25


gl bl