Boxing; 2/07/2009; Kotelnik-Maidana; Germany

[frank s.]

Kotelnik is the "perceived" favorite/better fighter/homer here. Well, at first I thought so, however, Maidana has fought and won his last 2 by KO in Germany. He has never made it past 8 rds. by virtue of his putting guys to sleep. Kotelnik is an Olympic star, a silver medal. As I see it, it's either Maidana early by whack, or Kotelnik latter as Maidana may get gassed in a prolonged struggle. If props appear that's my play. Maidana by KO or Kotelnik Su or by decision.

 

[Ghost Kid]

This is a very intriguing fight. I agree with your breakdown Frank.

I wish I could find more footage of Maidana...I fancy his chances.

A few weeks ago I was waiting for the Argentine slugger Ramirez to fade against Alekseev, and he never did. Instead, in a huge upset, the road fighter scored a late KO.

I haven't seen much of Maidana, but I see this as a very tough battle for Kotelnik (certainly tougher than Gavin Rees). Can a road fighter from Argentina do it again to Universum?

http://www.boxing.de/en/news/single-news/article/maidana-sure-hell-beat-kotelnik/48.html

 

[frank s.]

Ghostmeister-there is some film on youtube of that cat. The boy has dynamite in his gloves; as heavy handed as I have ever seen, and a decent defense. Kotelnik has only 13 whacks, so I view him as a somewhat light puncher. The oddsmaker has it lined to go into the later rounds; I suppose the thinking is Kotelnik will weather the early storm and win on pts. Well, maybe. All I can say is Maidana is a true banger in every sense of the word. Guys get hit and stay hit. Me likes it! Going to study Kotelnik some more.

 

[frank s.]

Kotelnik would seem to be the more polished of these two. He was getting banged to the body real good by Gavin Rees, and I'm thinking if Maidana is doing the banging, it's not going to be the same story. Better pedigree for Kotelnik, but Maidana has a height advantage and is only 25. I still think Maidana will give Kotelnik fits.

 

[Ghost Kid]

Dynamite indeed !

Here is a KO clip...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7a8LrEqUUo

one comment on the clip beyond the boxing....this clip alone is worth checking out for the ring card girlies...bless Argentina...

WA WA WEE WAH !

:0corn

Kotelnik is a very schooled guy....and has been in with much better comp (Mbaye, Witter, Abdulaev)
but, I wonder, does he have the firepower to keep this banger at bay?

I will play this fight, but I want to think about this for a little bit...

:00x32

 

[Zerwas]

Very interesting fight!

When I first saw Maidana's record I thought he was a wild puncher, but he has solid fundamentals....he actually reminds me a bit of Tszuy...I know that may sound a bit far fetched, but he seems similiar in the way he walks down his opponents.

Kotelnik is nothing extroardinary, but he has proven himself at the top level.
He is a good boxer with a good chin and he always comes to fight...

I have been thinking tihs through for quite some time.

I see Maidana as a slight underdog, but given Kotelniks experience and proven chin I'm not sure that he will be blown away early...so I think he's still the favorite as we dont know how Maidana will be able to deal with Kotelniks boxing skills in the later rounds...

I played Maidana @+260 and @+1100 by decision, Kotelnik has never been stopped but already lost two close decisions and the line looks nice!

I allso played the over for a unit! I just dont see a stoppage win for Kotelnik....

 

[frank s.]

Yea Z, I tend to see it in a like fashion. Logic speaks to the over and Kotelnik using his experience to stay afloat. Maidana is a banger with decent boxing skills; a dangerous combination. OK, so maybe what we have here is a VERY live puppie; and I do loves getting odds.

 

[gardenweasel]

well..now we`ve seen the gold standard in ring card girls....whoa!....

give the victim credit...we finally saw what`s supposed to be done when a guy throws an uppercut from outside....beautiful counter....

saw flashes of decent defense and a little head movement from maidana...but he ate some right hands.....some nice combinations...excellent body puncher...

he looked pretty good...kotelnik`s gonna hit him though...

love the fact that he`s already had several fights in germany and that he`s actually slightly taller....

any chance we can see this?.....

edit...it`s on the chagaev undercard......wish chagaev was fighting a live body(this guy couldn`t get kelvin davis out of there)....

 

[Ghost Kid]

Regarding Chagaev....weasel is on the money

Kelvin Davis is BEYOND shot...for Drummond to not absolutely dust him is a BAD sign
and he let Luis Pineda go the route with him as well

This guy might have the most overblown KO record of all time

A Costa Rican heavyweight champ? Not a chance, I believe.

 

[gardenweasel]

bro...thanks for posting that video...that kind of thing is invaluable to the forum.....

/and getting to see maidana for the first time wasn`t bad,either...:brows:

 

[frank s.]

link for my bro weasel-a link

link for my bro weasel-a link

mmahacks.com; if you did'nt already know. They got the Motts! So Kotelnik hits Maidana 2-1, maybe 3-1 shots. Any decent connects by Maidana will have their effect. As this is a title shot for the banger Maidana I expect an all out attack by him. He knows the benjamins await! If no bizzare info surfaces regarding the dog here, I'm on board the puppie express; "ding-dong, ding dong". Courtesy of The Horse Soldiers.

 

[gardenweasel]

i may either play under 8.5 straight,or in a parlay in the chagaev/drummond fight....

chagaev`s had the layoff and he hasn`t been stopping guys of late,but he`s been fighting guys that don`t get stopped(ruiz/skelton/valuev/virchis).......

watched some training video on drummong on youtube and he looked slow and wide with his punches...and he`s only fought away from c.r. once(in florida vs a tomato can).....

not to mention that the decision vs shot kelvin davis was amazingly close(97-93/96-94/93/92)......

this is a humongous mismatch and i believe was made with this in mind...

probably parlay it with something..looks like it`s up to chagaev...i can see this guy getting discouraged and quitting...

read the comments:

http://www.boxingscene.com/?m=show&id=17419

 

[olddirtyfighter]

my plays so far:

-dolan @ 2,2
-maidana @ 3,15
-cagaev @ 1,13
-no knockdown in 1st rd Cagaev-Drumond @ 1,1
-darchynian @ 1,3
-darchynian-arce under 10 @ 1,45

didn't have balls to take dolan on pts @ 3

still thinking about narvaez-whitfield, was tempted to take dog @ 5,75 but i am discouraged after reading graham preview

 

[Ghost Kid]

I like them all old dirty...let's try to get you another perfect week here !

I know the odds on Whitfield are tempting....but I agree with Graham on this one. I think Narvarez is too good for him. and in Argentina to boot.

In particular I like your Arce-Darchinyan under 10...I have seen it listed most places for 8.5 rounds.

I think the under hits at 8.5, but I think you are smart to grab an extra round and a half. These are gutty gutty guys.

only bet I worry about for you is chaegaev dusting this cat drummond early...I agree with weasel on the talent gap here...but it shoudn't happen in the first (hopefully for you)!

 

[olddirtyfighter]

only bet I worry about for you is chaegaev dusting this cat drummond early...I agree with weasel on the talent gap here...but it shoudn't happen in the first (hopefully for you)!

My reasoning was that Ruslan was inactive and is coming back after illness and mayor injury so he will take couple rounds to get into rhythm. But yeah, there is certain risk because of quality gap.

 

[frank s.]

Guess this is the w/e thead.

Guess this is the w/e thead.

Arce-Vic D; Fireworks no doubt. Arce has been threw the mill but is still dangerous. All the world seems to be on Vic after his last outing. He still keeps that hand so lowww!!!. Arce will do all he can to get inside and start banging. Arce by KO at 5-1 ain't no hill of beans. I give an edge to Vic but it will be a fight.

 

[Ghost Kid]

http://maxboxing.com/Mulcahey/Mulcahey020409.asp

Good preview of the German card here. Mulcahey leaning slightly to the challenger Maidana.

 

[olddirtyfighter]

Marty did a preview of 2009 where he predicted Maidana win. He is usually very high on european champions. That and early thread on this board encouraged me to take Maidana.

 

[Romi]

I mentioned this fight a few weeks back in another thread. I got on Maidana early @+270 and rode it 4 times to +170. I think it's a pic em but sometimes these bangers are for real and wouldn't be shocked to see him just beat up Kot who I think is a level below a Ricky Hatton type. Evan is also on the dog. Looks like many of us are hoping for a nice change in fortune this week. Good luck to all!