Boxing 2/17 - 2/19

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +8.75 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2.0
1 unit plays: 4-0 +3.75
.5 unit plays: 10-5 +1.15
Dogs: 6-7 +1.85

2/17 Dog
Caballero over De Leon +550...lay .1 to win .55 (winner)

2/18 Dogs
Margarito-Lujan under 8.5 +112...lay .25 to win .3 (loser)
Clotty wins inside distance +250...lay .1 to win .25 (no contest)

2/19
N'Dou-Witter over 9.5 -205 1 unit (winner)
Hopkins-Eastman over 11.5 -175 1/2 unit (winner)

2/19 Dogs
Eastman over Hopkins +535...lay .1 to win .55 (loser)
Eastman by 12 round decision +970...lay .05 to win .5 (loser)

gl bl

 

[frank s.]

Hey boxie, do you have a lean in the Witter-N'Dou fight? Line has leaked up on the chalk . I see N'Dou as a very live dog. What am I not seeing here?

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I'm not familiar enough with Witter to play a side in this one. He obviously has some power having ko'd his last 16 opponents but his competition has been very weak since losing a lopsided decision to Judah in Scotland a few years ago. Witter appears to have a good chin having gone the distance with Judah back when Zab was blowing out everyone in the first 3 rounds. This fight seems like a toss-up between two fringe fighters who have lost when they stepped up to top level. Both have some power but neither has ko'd a top level guy, they both have good chins especially N'dou. I like the over here, sorry I can't help you on the side. You might ask Tony over at the other forum, he probably has some decent info on Witter.

One thing to remember is that N'dou throws his punches very wide, if Witter throws his punches straight and quick he would have a definite advantage.

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

what`s funny about witter is the caliber of guys he`s whacking.......impressive if you just look at records....but if you look deeper...

bienias 22-2(7 ko`s)

battaglia 24-3(10 ko`s)..this guy hung with urkal..

hall 24-2(3 ko`s)

sambo 14-3(3 ko`s)

haeck 18-2(6 ko`s)

lauri 37-4(21 ko`s)....

no offense to europeans,but,this is very soft competition...regardless of the records...no real impressive wins on ANY of the resumes...

witter and hatton have figured out a way to avoid one another...lol

n`dou is as dangerous as anyone witter`s seen....this side of judah.....

hard to get a feel for this one....my guess is that once witter realizes he`s in with a legit guy,he`ll move...and box will hit his over....although i won`t touch it at -205...a little high for me...but a get the idea...witter`s was a boxer prior to this knockout tear...i suspect these k.o.`s have more to do with the competition than witter`s power...

i was thinking of parlaying the unders in gonzales/rivas and ponce de leon/caballero......getting better than 2 to 1 odds....

probably won`t hit because rivas is a very sturdy guy....but,i think gonzales is naturally a little bigger....and gonzales and ponce de leon come to do one thing....knock their opponents out....

so,i`ll have a little fun with the hbo latino fights....and root for the big punchers to do what they do best....

not something i`d play big...a throw away at best....at good odds,though....for fun...

.i`m waiting for one pending bout to get lined.....and praying that the line is favorable....i`ll be back if it hits the board...


g.l.,guys...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

gw
I'm actually thinking about playing Caballero +500 very small. Ponce is 5'5" and orthodox...Cab is a 5'11" southpaw, my guess is Cab will decide to box from the ouitside since he's already been stopped and he knows Ponce is a puncher. It wouldn't surprise me if Cab pulled a Gardner and avoided exchanges at all costs. If he uses his height and length to establish the jab, Ponce will have a very hard time getting inside. From what I've seen of Ponce he is slightly one dimensional, jab...right hand, jab...right hand. But like I said, Cab has been stopped before so if Ponce gets into range he should be able to hurt Cab.

One other note, this is an eliminater fight so Cab was not hand selected by the De Leon camp. My instincts tell me they aren't real excited about fighting a guy thats 6" taller AND a southpaw.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

2/19 Dogs
Margarito-Lujan under 8.5 +112...lay .25 to win .3
Eastman over Hopkins +535...lay .1 to win .55
Eastman by 12 round decision +970...lay .05 to win .5

2/17 Dog
Caballero over De Leon +550..lay .1 to win .55

gl bl

 

[MayorgaFan]

.....

.....

Ponce is nothing special (to put it modestly), but he is not an orthodox fighter. He is left handed. Also, this guy won't be able to just box his way to a win. He will need to put some hurt on Ponce. Although Ponce isn't to fast and he's easy to hit, he does hit the body really well. He's going to have a hell of a frame to hit on such a big guy and Ponce stopped his last opponent on a bodyshot.

 

[UT-Longhorn]

hey box, so you dont think Hopkins -650 is a chalk-worthy bet?

 

[gardenweasel]

ponce is a southpaw.......boxrec is wrong.....

and he`s not a quick technician....so the only way he`ll win is to walk down caballero....with caballero at 5`11",i doubt that ponce will stand outside...

caballero has only fought outside panama twice....and imo,ponce has fought better competition already...

this is for a shot at israel vasquez` title....so,i`m hoping that caballero doesn`t come to just survive....

maybe caballero gets lucky and takes ponce out...that suits me....

really interested in seeing jhonny gonzales vs tough,tough adonis rivas.......

rivas has been coming up in weight....and gonzales is another true banger....

both guys(ponce de leon and gonzales) are devastating body punchers...

this one might be the stickier of the two.....rivas has been in with world class fighters many times....and is hard to get out of there.....

anyway,just a couple bucks on this one....it`s for fun....i probably shouldn`t have posted it...i played it for the action....a case of beer....

for the fan,these will be the most interesting fights of the weekend...the bet is for chits and giggles...

g.l.,guys...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

UT-L
It would have to be a mismatch like Gatti-Leija for me to lay 5 to 1, and I probably wouldn't have played Gatti at -650...too much wood. I wasn't impressed with Hopkins performance against welterweight DLH and I was even less impressed with him in his last fight with Alllen. If Hopkins hasn't hit the wall yet, it will happen very soon.

MF
I don't know why I trusted Boxrec on the orthodox information, I've seen Ponce fight before and he was definitly a southpaw. Not sure why boxrec has him down as orthodox and not sure why I didn't catch the mistake..my bad. The body will defintly be a big target for Ponce, I just think at +550 the 5'11" southpaw Cab is worth a small shot.

gl bl

 

[MayorgaFan]

...

...

Can't disagree with you about the play. Ponce is really slow and easy to hit. He is kind of tough and hits damn hard though but at +550 I can't disagree with to many plays at that price.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

MF
Have you seen Witter fight? I agree with frank that N'Dou is a very live dog here, especially with the fight being here in the US and Witter having never fought outside of Europe. But the line has moved toward Witter, whats your take on this fight?

 

[MayorgaFan]

It appears this fight may be off but here's what I have saw......

Witter has real nice handspeed and good footspeed as well. It's hard to judge his power when he's just KO'ing scrubs. However, he's not all that strong and despite the fact that he didn't get ko'ed by Judah, he did get hurt by Jurgen Haeck. He recovered and knocked that guy out but but he is wild and kind of vulnerable IMO. I liked Ndou to have a great chance as well because of the strength difference. Witter would have to hurt Ndou to win which I am not cconvinced he could.

 

[TheShrimp]

Bad Intentions.

Bad Intentions.

gardenweasel. . .you still talking shit around here? I see. . .you haven't. . .gotten over your reliance. . .on the ellipsis. . .

:grins:

I haven't found a line on Jermain Taylor. I don't know a THING about the Haitian Sensation, but I'm guessing if there's no line, they don't think too highly of his chances.

Bad Intentions has looked pretty damn good in his last couple bouts. He's no 'Mo cos?lacht' yet but wouldn't Taylor-Hopkins be a primo contest in about a year if he keeps rolling?

I think BOXLOCKS is right to be reluctant to lay that much lumber on Hopkins. *IT* is coming one of these fights for Hoppy, and Eastman's got a beard, mum. He's gonna try to put a pip pip cheerio in the Executioner's knickers.

 

[frank s.]

Taylor-711, +641 coming back. Ellipsis? Heavy stuff for a boxing discussion, but GW is an enigma of sorts. A man of many disguises.

 

[gardenweasel]

"Taylor-711, +641 coming back. Ellipsis? Heavy stuff for a boxing discussion, but GW is an enigma of sorts. A man of many disguises."....

frank...."enema" is probably a little closer to the truth than "enigma"....lol...

shimpie....how you been?.....hope your sabbatical hasn`t been helath related...welcome back.....you were missed....

as for "the ellipsis",the antibiotics worked just fine........still battling the scabies,though...thanks for asking.... :mj08:

 

[frank s.]

Thank the good Lord we can still maintain a sense of humor! Yuk -yuk.

 

[TheShrimp]

"Taylor-711, +641 coming back. Ellipsis? Heavy stuff for a boxing discussion, but GW is an enigma of sorts. A man of many disguises."....

frank...."enema" is probably a little closer to the truth than "enigma"....lol...

shimpie....how you been?.....hope your sabbatical hasn`t been helath related...welcome back.....you were missed....

as for "the ellipsis",the antibiotics worked just fine........still battling the scabies,though...thanks for asking.... :mj08:

We stopped getting blocked at work.

I'm glad I wasn't around for the NFL this year. I didn't have a winning week until Thanksgiving. Made some back during the playoffs, then gave that back laying the 7. One of those years that you dread Sundays.

Looks like you're staying up on the fight game.

See ya around.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Caballero wins by 12 round UD!!!

 

[BOXLOCKS]

MF

Thanks for your take on Witter, I appreciate the help.